Latvia polling average: Apvienotais saraksts 32.8% — Latvija pirmajā vietā 11.7% — Apvienotais saraksts +21.1Also: Suverēnā vara 11.4% · Progresīvie 11.0% · Nacionālā apvienība "Visu Latvijai!"—"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK" 8.7% · Jaunā Vienotība 6.8% …Pollytic average to 3 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
Mean absolute error
2.1 pts
Error on the winner’s margin
−12.8 pts
Final polling average, result and error per party or candidate, in percentage points
Party
Average
Result
Error
Apvienotais saraksts
22.9%
35.8%
−12.9
Latvija pirmajā vietā
13.2%
13.3%
−0.1
Suverēnā vara
13.6%
11.9%
+1.7
Nacionālā apvienība "Visu Latvijai!"—"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK"
8.9%
9.0%
−0.1
Progresīvie
10.4%
8.0%
+2.4
Jaunā Vienotība
7.1%
6.5%
+0.6
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
6.9%
4.5%
+2.4
Mēs mainām noteikumus
3.6%
3.5%
+0.1
Latvijas attīstībai
3.6%
2.2%
+1.4
Stabilitātei!
3.0%
2.0%
+1.0
Austošā Saule Latvijai
1.9%
1.4%
+0.5
Gobzema saraksts
—
1.0%
—
Saskaņas Centrs
—
0.8%
—
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
—
0.3%
—
Harmony
2.3%
—
—
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
0.7%
—
—
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Apvienotais saraksts leads the polling average in Latvia on 32.8%, 21.1 points ahead of Latvija pirmajā vietā (11.7%). The biggest shift over the past month is Apvienotais saraksts, up 9.2 points.
2 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from SKDS/LTV/RSU (exit poll), published 3 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Parties
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
Apvienotais saraksts
Latvija pirmajā vietā
Suverēnā vara
Progresīvie
Nacionālā apvienība "Visu Latvijai!"—"Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK"