United Kingdom / Next UK General Election
Merlin Strategy
Voting intention · fieldwork ended 6 Jul 2025
- Country
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- Election
- Next UK General Election
- Polling institute
- Merlin Strategy
- Published
- Not stated by the source
- Fieldwork
- 4 Jul 2025 – 6 Jul 2025
- Sample size
- 500
- Margin of error
- ±4.4 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))
- Methodology
- Not published
Results
Merlin Strategy, 6 Jul 2025: Labour leads with 33.0%, 13.0 points ahead of Reform UK.
- Labour Party33.0%new
- Reform UK20.0%new
- Green Party18.0%new
- Liberal Democrats12.0%new
- Conservative Party10.0%new
- Scottish National Party2.0%new
- Plaid Cymru0.0%new
No earlier poll by this institute for this election, so no change is shown.
Note: Commissioned by ITV News. Area: GB. The source states no publication date; dated by the end of fieldwork.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.