United Kingdom / Next UK General Election
Opinium
Voting intention · published 17 May 2025
- Country
- 🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- Election
- Next UK General Election
- Polling institute
- Opinium
- Published
- 17 May 2025
- Fieldwork
- 14 May 2025 – 16 May 2025
- Sample size
- 2,050
- Margin of error
- ±2.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))
- Methodology
- Not published
Results
Opinium, 17 May 2025: Reform UK leads with 29.0%, 4.0 points ahead of Labour.
- Reform UK29.0%+2.0 percentage points
- Labour Party25.0%−1.0 percentage points
- Conservative Party18.0%−1.0 percentage points
- Liberal Democrats13.0%±0.0 percentage points
- Green Party10.0%+1.0 percentage points
- Scottish National Party2.0%−1.0 percentage points
- Plaid Cymru1.0%±0.0 percentage points
Change in percentage points vs. the previous poll by the same institute for this election.
Note: Commissioned by The Observer. Area: GB.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.