United States / 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project
Voting intention · published 23 Jun 2026
- Country
- 🇺🇸 United States
- Election
- 2026 United States Senate election in Texas
- Polling institute
- University of Texas/Texas Politics Project
- Published
- 23 Jun 2026
- Fieldwork
- 5 Jun 2026 – 12 Jun 2026
- Sample size
- 1,200
- Margin of error
- ±2.8 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))
- Methodology
- Not published
Results
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project, 23 Jun 2026: Paxton (R) leads with 43.0%, 1.0 points ahead of Talarico (D).
- Ken Paxton (R)43.0%+9.0 percentage points
- James Talarico (D)42.0%±0.0 percentage points
Change in percentage points vs. the previous poll by the same institute for this election.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.