United States / Maryland / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Maryland gubernatorial election
Maryland polling average: Moore (D) 51.1% — Cox (R) 24.1% — Moore (D) +27.0Pollytic average to 27 Sept 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wes MooreWinnerDemocratic Party | 1,245,042 | 63.2% | |
| Dan CoxRepublican Party | 641,751 | 32.6% | |
| Andy EllisGreen Party | 40,851 | 2.1% | |
| Cathy WhiteWorking Class Party | 38,364 | 1.9% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 5,099 | 0.3% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montgomery | Moore | +62.7 | 329,481 |
| Baltimore | Moore | +22.4 | 250,081 |
| Prince George's | Moore | +81.7 | 245,911 |
| Anne Arundel | Moore | +14.4 | 209,034 |
| Howard | Moore | +46.2 | 134,237 |
| Baltimore city | Moore | +73.8 | 129,513 |
| Harford | Cox | +12.9 | 106,535 |
| Frederick | Moore | +14.4 | 103,032 |
| Carroll | Cox | +26.9 | 70,869 |
| Charles | Moore | +48.3 | 66,854 |
All 24 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington | Cox | +14.4 | 48,760 |
| St. Mary's | Cox | +16.2 | 39,420 |
| Calvert | Cox | +10.0 | 37,866 |
| Wicomico | Cox | +3.4 | 31,944 |
| Cecil | Cox | +30.2 | 31,574 |
| Queen Anne's | Cox | +28.3 | 24,080 |
| Worcester | Cox | +24.0 | 23,106 |
| Allegany | Cox | +33.6 | 20,852 |
| Talbot | Cox | +2.2 | 17,982 |
| Dorchester | Cox | +19.0 | 12,465 |
| Caroline | Cox | +38.4 | 11,550 |
| Garrett | Cox | +51.3 | 10,682 |
| Kent | Cox | +6.3 | 8,206 |
| Somerset | Cox | +23.0 | 7,073 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 10.4 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −2.4 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moore (D) | 51.0% | 62.5% | −11.5 |
| Cox (R) | 24.0% | 33.2% | −9.2 |
| Ellis (G) | — | 2.1% | — |
| White (I) | — | 2.0% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Moore (D) leads the polling average in Maryland on 51.1%, 27.0 points ahead of Cox (R) (24.1%). The biggest shift over the past month is Moore (D), down 6.9 points.
1 poll from 1 institute was published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from University of Maryland, Baltimore County, published 27 Sept 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Wes MooreDemocratic
- Dan CoxRepublican
- Andy EllisGreen
- Cathy White
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: Wes Moore (D) 98%, Dan Cox (R) 2%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Maryland now.
Wes Moore
Governor of Maryland