2026 midterm forecast

Who is favoured to control the Senate and the House and to win the governorships: the model, then every forecaster’s rating of the competitive races side by side.

Forecast accuracy

Each forecaster’s last ratings before election day against the Senate and governor results: a call is correct when the side it rated (Tilt, Lean, Likely or Safe) won; a Toss-up is not a call. The Brier score, for forecasters that publish win probabilities, is lower when they gave the winner a higher chance. How it is scored

House races are not scored: Pollytic does not store district results.

Forecasters ranked by the share of races called correctly, then by Brier score
Rank	Forecaster	Races	Correct calls	Toss-ups	Brier score
1	Polymarket	43	37 (86%)	0	0.118
2	Kalshi	43	37 (86%)	0	0.119
3	VoteHub	43	36 (84%)	1	0.127
4	Split Ticket	24	20 (83%)	0	0.139
5	PredictIt	36	29 (81%)	3	0.162
6	FiftyPlusOne	24	19 (79%)	2	0.132
7	ElectIndex	43	34 (79%)	3	0.123
8	CM Election Predictions	43	34 (79%)	3	0.126
9	Race to the WH	43	34 (79%)	3	—
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	43	34 (79%)	4	—
11	civicAPI	43	33 (77%)	4	0.137
12	Cook Political Report	43	33 (77%)	6	—
13	Inside Elections	43	33 (77%)	4	—
14	Decision Desk HQ	24	18 (75%)	2	0.153
15	Fox News	43	32 (74%)	5	—
16	RRH Elections	43	31 (72%)	6	—
17	OpenSourceZone	24	17 (71%)	3	0.204
18	America First Insight	43	29 (67%)	0	0.268

Senate

Chance of a majority (51+ seats)

100%Democrats

100%Republicans

Expected seats

Democrats: 62.7 (range 59–66)
Republicans: 62.8 (range 59–67)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Seat distribution

Democratic seats in each of 65,000 simulations of the model. Bar colour: the party with a majority (grey: neither).

Ratings of the 35 races

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No race

How the forecast has moved

Chance of a majority

One point per daily snapshot.

Projected seats by forecaster

Democrats – Republicans, then seats rated Toss-up.

Projected seats by forecaster on 6 Nov 2026, 30 Oct 2026, 3 Oct 2026
Forecaster	Now (6 Nov)	A week earlier (30 Oct)	First (3 Oct)
civicAPI	62 – 59 · 5	66 – 64 · 5	48 – 47 · 5
Cook Political Report	59 – 60 · 6	64 – 64 · 7	46 – 47 · 7
Sabato's Crystal Ball	60 – 60 · 5	66 – 64 · 5	48 – 47 · 5
Inside Elections	61 – 60 · 4	65 – 66 · 4	47 – 49 · 4
Split Ticket	64 – 60 · 1	69 – 65 · 1	52 – 47 · 1
Decision Desk HQ	48 – 47 · 5	48 – 47 · 5	48 – 47 · 5
FiftyPlusOne	64 – 60 · 1	68 – 64 · 3	52 – 47 · 1
Fox News	58 – 61 · 6	64 – 65 · 6	47 – 47 · 6
RRH Elections	47 – 48 · 5	47 – 48 · 5	47 – 48 · 5
Race to the WH	62 – 60 · 3	68 – 64 · 3	51 – 46 · 3
VoteHub	63 – 60 · 2	69 – 66	52 – 48
ElectIndex	64 – 59 · 2	70 – 64 · 1	51 – 46 · 3
CM Election Predictions	50 – 48 · 2	49 – 48 · 3	49 – 47 · 4
America First Insight	55 – 69	61 – 73	44 – 55
OpenSourceZone	48 – 49 · 3	48 – 49 · 3	48 – 49 · 3
Kalshi	64 – 60 · 1	69 – 65 · 1	52 – 47 · 1
Polymarket	65 – 60 · 1	69 – 65 · 1	51 – 47 · 2
PredictIt	65 – 58 · 3	68 – 62 · 5	51 – 47 · 2

How forecasters rate the competitive races

Every race that at least one of 18 forecasters does not rate Safe, closest first.

Senate: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Split Ticket	Decision Desk HQ	FiftyPlusOne	Fox News	RRH Elections	Race to the WH	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	OpenSourceZone	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
Iowa	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Ohio	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Safe R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Alaska	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Tilt D	Lean D	Tilt D
Maine	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely R	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Kansas	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Lean D	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Safe R	Tilt D	Tilt D	Tilt D
Texas	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Michigan	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Nebraska	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Toss-up
South Carolina	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
New Hampshire	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Minnesota	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D
Florida	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Mississippi	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up
North Carolina	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe R	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Georgia	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Tilt R	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Louisiana	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Montana	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Tilt R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
South Dakota	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Idaho	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Kentucky	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Oklahoma	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R
Oregon	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D

Updated 3 Nov 2026

House of Representatives

Chance of a majority (218+ seats)

96%Democrats

4%Republicans

Expected seats

Democrats: 239.7 (range 219–261)
Republicans: 194.6 (range 174–215)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Generic ballot average: Democrats 53.5%, Republicans 46.5% (311 polls)

Ratings of the 435 districts

172

115

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R

Likely D (28): CA-01, CA-06, CA-09, CA-17, CA-37, CA-45, CA-49, CO-01, FL-20, FL-24, IL-07, IL-08, IL-09, IN-01, MN-02, MO-05, NC-11, NE-02, NH-01, NJ-05, NJ-09, NJ-11, NM-02, NV-01, NY-03, NY-10, OR-04, TX-28
Lean D (14): AZ-06, CA-13, CA-21, CA-25, CA-48, FL-14, IA-01, MA-08, NV-03, OH-09, PA-07, PA-08, TX-15, WA-03
Tilt D (9): CO-08, IA-03, NC-01, NJ-07, OH-01, PA-10, TX-34, VA-01, WI-03
Toss-up (26): AL-02, AZ-01, AZ-02, CA-22, CO-05, FL-07, FL-09, FL-22, FL-25, IA-02, KY-06, ME-02, MI-04, MI-07, MI-10, MN-01, MO-02, MT-01, NY-17, OH-07, PA-01, SC-01, TX-23, TX-35, VA-02, WI-01
Tilt R (11): AK-AL, CO-04, NC-03, NC-07, NC-09, NE-01, NY-21, OH-15, TN-05, TX-02, VA-05
Lean R (20): CA-05, CO-03, FL-13, FL-16, FL-27, GA-08, IN-05, MN-06, MN-07, MN-08, NC-05, NC-10, NC-13, NJ-02, NV-02, NY-11, OH-10, PA-09, TN-09, WA-05
Likely R (40): AR-02, AZ-08, FL-04, FL-08, FL-11, FL-12, FL-19, FL-21, FL-26, FL-28, GA-07, GA-09, GA-14, IL-12, IL-16, KS-02, KY-01, KY-04, MD-01, MI-01, MO-06, NC-06, NC-14, NY-01, NY-02, NY-23, NY-24, OK-05, PA-13, PA-14, PA-15, SC-02, TN-07, TX-03, TX-09, TX-10, TX-32, UT-02, VA-06, WI-08

How the forecast has moved

Chance of a majority

One point per daily snapshot.

Projected seats by forecaster

Democrats – Republicans, then seats rated Toss-up.

Projected seats by forecaster on 6 Nov 2026, 30 Oct 2026, 3 Oct 2026
Forecaster	Now (6 Nov)	A week earlier (30 Oct)	First (3 Oct)
civicAPI	223 – 186 · 26	225 – 189 · 21	224 – 194 · 17
Cook Political Report	222 – 195 · 18	220 – 198 · 17	208 – 205 · 22
Sabato's Crystal Ball	225 – 193 · 17	223 – 200 · 12	213 – 202 · 20
Inside Elections	224 – 198 · 13	212 – 205 · 18	209 – 210 · 16
Split Ticket	235 – 188 · 12	232 – 190 · 13	231 – 195 · 9
Decision Desk HQ	223 – 204 · 8	223 – 204 · 8	223 – 204 · 8
FiftyPlusOne	215 – 189 · 12	218 – 189 · 9	217 – 190 · 9
Fox News	219 – 198 · 18	219 – 198 · 18	215 – 201 · 19
RRH Elections	207 – 207 · 21	207 – 207 · 21	207 – 207 · 21
VoteHub	233 – 199 · 3	232 – 201 · 2	231 – 203 · 1
ElectIndex	238 – 182 · 15	237 – 184 · 14	232 – 188 · 15
CM Election Predictions	241 – 175 · 19	241 – 175 · 19	239 – 178 · 18
America First Insight	215 – 203 · 17	213 – 209 · 13	213 – 211 · 11
Kalshi	225 – 188 · 13	225 – 193 · 8	222 – 199 · 5
Polymarket	233 – 187 · 14	233 – 190 · 11	230 – 198 · 6
PredictIt	21 – 3 · 10	18 – 2 · 6	14 – 0 · 3

How forecasters rate the competitive districts

Every district that at least one of 16 forecasters rates Lean, Tilt or Toss-up, closest first. 92 more are rated Likely by at least one forecaster and Likely or Safe by all.

Show all 114 districts

House of Representatives: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Split Ticket	Decision Desk HQ	FiftyPlusOne	Fox News	RRH Elections	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
VA-01	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Tilt D	Tilt D	Lean D
PA-01	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
CO-05	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
MI-10	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt R	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up
MI-04	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R
MT-01	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
FL-22	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D
IA-02	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean R	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up
NY-17	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D
ME-02	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R
OH-07	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up
AL-02	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
KY-06	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
SC-01	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
MI-07	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
WI-01	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
TX-23	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
TX-35	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely R	Lean D	Lean D	–
AZ-02	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Tilt R	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
CO-03	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
FL-07	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
FL-14	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
NC-01	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
FL-09	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
MO-02	Toss-up	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
OH-15	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
MN-01	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
NV-02	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
FL-25	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt D
TX-15	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	–
IA-03	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up
OH-09	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
PA-08	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
FL-13	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
VA-05	Tilt R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
AZ-01	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D
NC-11	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean R	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
CA-22	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up
PA-10	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
WI-03	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
FL-27	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Toss-up	–
VA-02	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-up
OH-10	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
TX-34	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	–
CO-04	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
CO-08	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D
NJ-07	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Toss-up	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up
AK-AL	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	–
PA-07	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
NC-03	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Toss-up	–
AZ-06	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
WA-03	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
NY-21	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
IA-01	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D
FL-16	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NY-01	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Toss-up	Lean D	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	–
CA-48	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Toss-up	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up
NE-01	Tilt R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
AR-02	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	–
IN-05	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-09	Tilt R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
NC-13	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
TX-09	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
OH-01	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe R
NJ-02	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	–
NY-03	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Toss-up
NC-07	Tilt R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NV-03	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Toss-up
TX-28	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	–
NM-02	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
CA-13	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	–
KS-02	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	–
WA-05	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-04	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-14	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Lean R	–
NH-01	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NY-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
TN-09	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
AZ-08	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NE-02	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
FL-11	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-26	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NC-05	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-12	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
MN-08	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
NV-01	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TX-32	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
CA-45	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
GA-01	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
IN-01	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TN-05	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
NY-04	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
GA-12	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
SC-02	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	–
WI-08	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
FL-02	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	–
MI-08	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
NY-19	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
TX-02	Tilt R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
CA-21	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	–
CA-05	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
FL-18	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
FL-28	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
LA-06	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Toss-up	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NC-10	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
NY-11	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
CA-25	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
MN-06	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
MO-05	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean R	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
GA-08	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
GA-11	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
MA-08	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
MN-07	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
PA-09	Lean R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–

Updated 3 Nov 2026

Governors

Chance of winning most governorships

67%Democrats

21%Republicans

Neither party: 12% of simulations.

Expected governorships

Democrats: 26.6 (range 22–31)
Republicans: 23.4 (range 19–28)

Average of 65,000 simulations; the range covers 90% of them.

Seat distribution

Democratic seats in each of 65,000 simulations of the model. Bar colour: the party with a majority (grey: neither).

Ratings of the 36 races

Safe D
Likely D
Lean D
Tilt D
Toss-up
Tilt R
Lean R
Likely R
Safe R
No race

How the forecast has moved

Chance of winning most governorships

One point per daily snapshot.

Projected governorships by forecaster

Democrats – Republicans, then seats rated Toss-up.

Projected governorships by forecaster on 6 Nov 2026, 30 Oct 2026, 3 Oct 2026
Forecaster	Now (6 Nov)	A week earlier (30 Oct)	First (3 Oct)
civicAPI	26 – 22 · 2	26 – 22 · 2	25 – 22 · 3
Cook Political Report	20 – 13 · 3	19 – 13 · 4	17 – 14 · 5
Sabato's Crystal Ball	20 – 14 · 2	20 – 14 · 2	18 – 14 · 4
Inside Elections	21 – 14 · 1	17 – 15 · 4	17 – 15 · 4
Fox News	17 – 14 · 5	17 – 14 · 5	17 – 14 · 5
RRH Elections	15 – 16 · 5	15 – 16 · 5	15 – 16 · 5
Race to the WH	17 – 14 · 5	17 – 14 · 5	17 – 14 · 5
VoteHub	22 – 14	20 – 14 · 2	20 – 15 · 1
ElectIndex	22 – 14	20 – 14 · 2	20 – 14 · 2
CM Election Predictions	26 – 21 · 3	26 – 22 · 2	25 – 23 · 2
America First Insight	15 – 21	15 – 21	15 – 21
Kalshi	22 – 14	22 – 14	20 – 14 · 2
Polymarket	22 – 14	22 – 14	20 – 14 · 2
PredictIt	16 – 6	16 – 6	14 – 6 · 2

How forecasters rate the competitive races

Every race that at least one of 14 forecasters does not rate Safe, closest first.

Governors: ratings of the competitive races by forecaster
Seat	civicAPI	Cook Political Report	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Inside Elections	Fox News	RRH Elections	Race to the WH	VoteHub	ElectIndex	CM Election Predictions	America First Insight	Kalshi	Polymarket	PredictIt
Georgia	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt D	Lean D	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt D	Tilt D	Lean D
Nevada	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean R	Toss-up	Tilt D	Likely D	Toss-up	Safe R	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
Kansas	Tilt R	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Toss-up	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Texas	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Wisconsin	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Tilt D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Ohio	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Safe R	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida	Tilt R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Tilt R	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Tilt R	Tilt R	Tilt R
Oregon	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Lean D	Likely D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	–
Alaska	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tilt D	Toss-up	Lean R	Tilt D	Lean D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe R	Likely D	Likely D	–
Iowa	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe R	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D
Vermont	Lean R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Tilt R	Lean R	Tilt R
Michigan	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Toss-up	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Tilt R	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Arizona	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Tilt D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Lean R	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Nebraska	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
New Hampshire	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
Oklahoma	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	–
Alabama	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R
Maine	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	–
New Mexico	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
South Carolina	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Minnesota	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Rhode Island	Lean D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
New York	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Arkansas	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
South Dakota	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Tennessee	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	–
Colorado	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Connecticut	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D
Pennsylvania	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D

Updated 3 Nov 2026

Forecast accuracy

House races are not scored: Pollytic does not store district results.

Forecasters ranked by the share of races called correctly, then by Brier score
Rank	Forecaster	Races	Correct calls	Toss-ups	Brier score
1	Polymarket	43	37 (86%)	0	0.118
2	Kalshi	43	37 (86%)	0	0.119
3	VoteHub	43	36 (84%)	1	0.127
4	Split Ticket	24	20 (83%)	0	0.139
5	PredictIt	36	29 (81%)	3	0.162
6	FiftyPlusOne	24	19 (79%)	2	0.132
7	ElectIndex	43	34 (79%)	3	0.123
8	CM Election Predictions	43	34 (79%)	3	0.126
9	Race to the WH	43	34 (79%)	3	—
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	43	34 (79%)	4	—
11	civicAPI	43	33 (77%)	4	0.137
12	Cook Political Report	43	33 (77%)	6	—
13	Inside Elections	43	33 (77%)	4	—
14	Decision Desk HQ	24	18 (75%)	2	0.153
15	Fox News	43	32 (74%)	5	—
16	RRH Elections	43	31 (72%)	6	—
17	OpenSourceZone	24	17 (71%)	3	0.204
18	America First Insight	43	29 (67%)	0	0.268

Forecaster

Now (6 Nov)

A week earlier (30 Oct)

First (3 Oct)

civicAPI

62 – 59 · 5

66 – 64 · 5

48 – 47 · 5

Cook Political Report

59 – 60 · 6

64 – 64 · 7

46 – 47 · 7

Sabato's Crystal Ball

60 – 60 · 5

66 – 64 · 5

48 – 47 · 5

Inside Elections

61 – 60 · 4

65 – 66 · 4

47 – 49 · 4

Split Ticket

64 – 60 · 1

69 – 65 · 1

52 – 47 · 1

Decision Desk HQ

48 – 47 · 5

FiftyPlusOne

64 – 60 · 1

68 – 64 · 3

52 – 47 · 1

Fox News

58 – 61 · 6

64 – 65 · 6

47 – 47 · 6

RRH Elections

47 – 48 · 5

Race to the WH

62 – 60 · 3

68 – 64 · 3

51 – 46 · 3

VoteHub

63 – 60 · 2

69 – 66

52 – 48

ElectIndex

64 – 59 · 2

70 – 64 · 1

51 – 46 · 3

CM Election Predictions

50 – 48 · 2

49 – 48 · 3

49 – 47 · 4

America First Insight

55 – 69

61 – 73

44 – 55

OpenSourceZone

48 – 49 · 3

Kalshi

64 – 60 · 1

69 – 65 · 1

52 – 47 · 1

Polymarket

65 – 60 · 1

69 – 65 · 1

51 – 47 · 2

PredictIt

65 – 58 · 3

68 – 62 · 5

51 – 47 · 2

Seat

civicAPI

Cook Political Report

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Inside Elections

Split Ticket

Decision Desk HQ

FiftyPlusOne

Fox News

RRH Elections

Race to the WH

VoteHub

ElectIndex

CM Election Predictions

America First Insight

OpenSourceZone

Kalshi

Polymarket

PredictIt

Iowa

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Toss-up

Ohio

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Safe R

Toss-up

Lean D

Alaska

Tilt D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Maine

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely R

Lean D

Kansas

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely R

Lean D

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt D

Texas

Tilt D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe R

Toss-up

Lean D

Michigan

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean D

Nebraska

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Tilt R

Lean R

Toss-up

South Carolina

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Safe R

Tilt R

New Hampshire

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Tilt D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

Minnesota

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Florida

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Mississippi

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Toss-up

North Carolina

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Safe R

Lean D

Safe D

Georgia

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Tilt R

Lean D

Safe D

Louisiana

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Montana

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Tilt R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

South Dakota

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Idaho

Safe R

Likely R

Kentucky

Likely R

Safe R

Oklahoma

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Oregon

Likely D

Safe D

Forecaster

Now (6 Nov)

A week earlier (30 Oct)

First (3 Oct)

civicAPI

223 – 186 · 26

225 – 189 · 21

224 – 194 · 17

Cook Political Report

222 – 195 · 18

220 – 198 · 17

208 – 205 · 22

Sabato's Crystal Ball

225 – 193 · 17

223 – 200 · 12

213 – 202 · 20

Inside Elections

224 – 198 · 13

212 – 205 · 18

209 – 210 · 16

Split Ticket

235 – 188 · 12

232 – 190 · 13

231 – 195 · 9

Decision Desk HQ

223 – 204 · 8

FiftyPlusOne

215 – 189 · 12

218 – 189 · 9

217 – 190 · 9

Fox News

219 – 198 · 18

215 – 201 · 19

RRH Elections

207 – 207 · 21

VoteHub

233 – 199 · 3

232 – 201 · 2

231 – 203 · 1

ElectIndex

238 – 182 · 15

237 – 184 · 14

232 – 188 · 15

CM Election Predictions

241 – 175 · 19

239 – 178 · 18

America First Insight

215 – 203 · 17

213 – 209 · 13

213 – 211 · 11

Kalshi

225 – 188 · 13

225 – 193 · 8

222 – 199 · 5

Polymarket

233 – 187 · 14

233 – 190 · 11

230 – 198 · 6

PredictIt

21 – 3 · 10

18 – 2 · 6

14 – 0 · 3

Seat

civicAPI

Cook Political Report

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Inside Elections

Split Ticket

Decision Desk HQ

FiftyPlusOne

Fox News

RRH Elections

VoteHub

ElectIndex

CM Election Predictions

America First Insight

Kalshi

Polymarket

PredictIt

VA-01

Tilt D

Toss-up

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

PA-01

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely R

Toss-up

–

CO-05

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

–

MI-10

Toss-up

Tilt R

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

MI-04

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely R

Toss-up

Likely R

MT-01

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean R

Toss-up

–

FL-22

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

IA-02

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean R

Lean D

Toss-up

NY-17

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

ME-02

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

OH-07

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

Toss-up

AL-02

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Tilt R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

–

KY-06

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean R

Toss-up

–

SC-01

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

–

MI-07

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

Lean D

WI-01

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Lean R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely R

Toss-up

–

TX-23

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Likely R

Toss-up

–

TX-35

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely R

Lean D

–

AZ-02

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Tilt R

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely R

Toss-up

–

CO-03

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

–

FL-07

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Likely R

Tilt R

–

FL-14

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

NC-01

Tilt D

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

FL-09

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely R

Tilt R

–

MO-02

Toss-up

Likely R

Toss-up

Safe R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean D

Lean R

Tilt R

–

OH-15

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt R

–

MN-01

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt R

–

NV-02

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

–

FL-25

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

Tilt D

TX-15

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

Likely D

–

IA-03

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

Toss-up

OH-09

Lean D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Safe D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

PA-08

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

Safe D

FL-13

Lean R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt R

–

VA-05

Tilt R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

–

AZ-01

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

NC-11

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean R

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

CA-22

Toss-up

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

Safe D

Toss-up

PA-10

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

WI-03

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

FL-27

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt R

Toss-up

–

VA-02

Toss-up

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Toss-up

OH-10

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Safe R

Lean R

–

TX-34

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

Likely D

–

CO-04

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

Tilt R

–

CO-08

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

NJ-07

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Safe D

Toss-up

AK-AL

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Likely R

Lean R

–

PA-07

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Likely D

NC-03

Tilt R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

–

AZ-06

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

WA-03

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

NY-21

Tilt R

Lean R

Toss-up

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

–

IA-01

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

FL-16

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Toss-up

Safe R

Lean R

–

NY-01

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Toss-up

Lean D

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

–

CA-48

Lean D

Likely D

Tilt D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Toss-up

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Toss-up

NE-01

Tilt R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

–

AR-02

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

–

IN-05

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

–

NC-09

Tilt R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Tilt R

–

NC-13

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Tilt R

–

TX-09

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

–

OH-01

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Safe R

NJ-02

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Tilt R

–

NY-03

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Toss-up

NC-07

Tilt R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

–

NV-03

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

Toss-up

TX-28

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

–

NM-02

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

CA-13

Lean D

Likely D

Tilt D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

–

KS-02

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

–

WA-05

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Likely R

–

FL-04

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Toss-up

Safe R

Likely R

–

NC-14

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

–

NH-01

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

NY-02

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Toss-up

Safe R

Likely R

–

TN-09

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

–

AZ-08

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

NE-02

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

FL-11

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

FL-26

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Toss-up

Safe R

Likely R

–

NC-05

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

FL-12

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

MN-08

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

–

NV-01

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

TX-32

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

CA-45

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

GA-01

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

IN-01

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

TN-05

Tilt R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

NY-04

Safe D

Likely D

Tilt D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

GA-12

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

SC-02

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

WI-08

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

FL-02

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

MI-08

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

NY-19

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

TX-02

Tilt R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

CA-21

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

CA-05

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

FL-18

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

–

FL-28

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

–

LA-06

Safe R

Toss-up

Safe R

–

NC-10

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

NY-11

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

–

CA-25

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

–

MN-06

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

MO-05

Likely D

Safe D

Lean R

Safe D

–

GA-08

Lean R

Safe R

–

GA-11

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

–

MA-08

Lean D

Safe D

–

MN-07

Lean R

Safe R

–

PA-09

Lean R

Safe R

–

Forecaster

Now (6 Nov)

A week earlier (30 Oct)

First (3 Oct)

civicAPI

26 – 22 · 2

25 – 22 · 3

Cook Political Report

20 – 13 · 3

19 – 13 · 4

17 – 14 · 5

Sabato's Crystal Ball

20 – 14 · 2

18 – 14 · 4

Inside Elections

21 – 14 · 1

17 – 15 · 4

Fox News

17 – 14 · 5

RRH Elections

15 – 16 · 5

Race to the WH

17 – 14 · 5

VoteHub

22 – 14

20 – 14 · 2

20 – 15 · 1

ElectIndex

22 – 14

20 – 14 · 2

CM Election Predictions

26 – 21 · 3

26 – 22 · 2

25 – 23 · 2

America First Insight

15 – 21

Kalshi

22 – 14

20 – 14 · 2

Polymarket

22 – 14

20 – 14 · 2

PredictIt

16 – 6

14 – 6 · 2

Seat

civicAPI

Cook Political Report

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Inside Elections

Fox News

RRH Elections

Race to the WH

VoteHub

ElectIndex

CM Election Predictions

America First Insight

Kalshi

Polymarket

PredictIt

Georgia

Toss-up

Tilt D

Toss-up

Tilt D

Lean D

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt D

Lean D

Nevada

Toss-up

Lean R

Toss-up

Tilt D

Likely D

Toss-up

Safe R

Lean D

Kansas

Tilt R

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Toss-up

Safe R

Tilt R

Texas

Tilt R

Lean R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Lean R

Safe R

Tilt R

Wisconsin

Lean D

Tilt D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Tilt D

Likely D

Ohio

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Toss-up

Lean D

Safe R

Likely D

Florida

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Tilt R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Tilt R

Oregon

Tilt D

Lean D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

–

Alaska

Lean D

Tilt D

Toss-up

Lean R

Tilt D

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe R

Likely D

–

Iowa

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Safe R

Likely D

Vermont

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Lean R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

Tilt R

Lean R

Tilt R

Michigan

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Lean D

Toss-up

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Tilt R

Safe D

Arizona

Likely D

Tilt D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Lean R

Safe D

Nebraska

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

New Hampshire

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

–

Oklahoma

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Lean R

Safe R

Likely R

–

Alabama

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Lean R

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Maine

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

–

New Mexico

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Lean D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

South Carolina

Likely R

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

Minnesota

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Rhode Island

Lean D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

New York

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Arkansas

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

South Dakota

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

Tennessee

Safe R

Likely R

Safe R

–

Colorado

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Connecticut

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D

Pennsylvania

Safe D

Likely D

Safe D