United States / Massachusetts / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial Republican primary
Massachusetts polling average: Minogue (R) 55.0% — Shortsleeve (R) 11.0% — Minogue (R) +44.0Pollytic average to 27 Aug 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
96% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike MinogueProjected winnerRepublican Party | 384,472 | 75.8% | |
| Brian ShortsleeveRepublican Party | 122,482 | 24.2% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | Minogue | +51.4 | 46,327 |
| Worcester | Minogue | +49.5 | 36,322 |
| Essex | Minogue | +68.1 | 33,012 |
| Plymouth | Minogue | +54.2 | 31,318 |
| Norfolk | Minogue | +49.6 | 27,441 |
| Bristol | Minogue | +41.2 | 25,126 |
| Hampden | Minogue | +53.6 | 17,072 |
| Barnstable | Minogue | +41.0 | 15,820 |
| Suffolk | Minogue | +47.9 | 8,784 |
| Hampshire | Minogue | +54.5 | 5,892 |
All 14 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire | Minogue | +39.7 | 3,092 |
| Franklin | Minogue | +47.2 | 2,562 |
| Dukes | Minogue | +25.2 | 404 |
| Nantucket | Minogue | +58.0 | 305 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 14 counties reporting in both: 121.8 pts toward R.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dukes | D+52.4 | R+100.0 | 152.4 toward R |
| Suffolk | D+52.1 | R+100.0 | 152.1 toward R |
| Hampshire | D+41.7 | R+100.0 | 141.7 toward R |
| Berkshire | D+39.7 | R+100.0 | 139.7 toward R |
| Middlesex | D+39.2 | R+100.0 | 139.2 toward R |
| Nantucket | D+36.7 | R+100.0 | 136.7 toward R |
| Essex | D+30.2 | R+100.0 | 130.2 toward R |
| Worcester | D+28.0 | R+100.0 | 128.0 toward R |
| Franklin | D+18.6 | R+100.0 | 118.6 toward R |
| Norfolk | D+17.0 | R+100.0 | 117.0 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 17.0 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −7.7 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minogue (R) | 55.0% | 75.8% | −20.8 |
| Shortsleeve (R) | 11.0% | 24.2% | −13.2 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Minogue (R) leads the polling average in Massachusetts on 55.0%, 44.0 points ahead of Shortsleeve (R) (11.0%). The biggest shift over the past month is Minogue (R), up 9.1 points.
1 poll from 1 institute was published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from University of New Hampshire, published 27 Aug 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Mike MinogueRepublican
- Brian ShortsleeveRepublican
Government
Who governs Massachusetts now.
Maura Healey
Governor of Massachusetts