2026 Texas Senate Republican primary

Name: 2026 Texas Senate Republican primary opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

Texas polling average: Paxton (R) 38.5% — Cornyn (R) 34.0% — Paxton (R) +4.5Also: Hunt (R) 16.5%Pollytic average to 2 Mar 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Election date

Held on 3 Mar 2026

Results

100% reporting · 3 Mar 2026

Votes and vote share by candidate, Texas US Senate Republican Primary
Candidate	Votes	Share
John CornynProjected winnerRepublican Party	910,382	42.0%
Ken PaxtonRepublican Party	878,564	40.5%
Wesley HuntRepublican Party	293,250	13.5%
Sara CanadyRepublican Party	26,355	1.2%
Anna BenderRepublican Party	24,167	1.1%
Gus KhanRepublican Party	15,873	0.7%
John AdefopeRepublican Party	9,284	0.4%
Virgil BierschwaleRepublican Party	9,035	0.4%

County map of Texas, Texas US Senate Republican Primary: each county shaded by its leading candidate (John Cornyn, Ken Paxton). County figures are in the table. — John CornynKen PaxtonCounty leader, shaded by party.

The 10 counties with the most votes, Texas US Senate Republican Primary
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Harris	Cornyn	+1.0	198,045
Tarrant	Cornyn	+7.0	145,798
Collin	Paxton	+0.8	102,689
Dallas	Cornyn	+18.0	102,474
Bexar	Cornyn	+4.4	94,563
Denton	Cornyn	+1.8	87,274
Montgomery	Paxton	+27.2	79,029
Travis	Cornyn	+24.1	55,835
Fort Bend	Paxton	+1.5	55,008
Williamson	Cornyn	+15.5	52,291

All 254 counties

The other 244 counties, Texas US Senate Republican Primary
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Galveston	Paxton	+5.8	32,864
Brazoria	Paxton	+3.2	31,614
Lubbock	Cornyn	+6.3	29,869
Smith	Cornyn	+11.3	29,213
Comal	Paxton	+3.6	29,152
Parker	Paxton	+10.0	27,384
Ellis	Paxton	+2.0	24,869
El Paso	Cornyn	+9.1	24,250
McLennan	Cornyn	+12.5	23,129
Nueces	Cornyn	+10.6	22,025
Bell	Cornyn	+35.7	21,794
Johnson	Cornyn	+4.9	20,382
Randall	Cornyn	+19.0	18,887
Hidalgo	Cornyn	+7.4	18,862
Hays	Cornyn	+6.5	18,507
Guadalupe	Cornyn	+2.6	17,975
Brazos	Cornyn	+11.2	17,753
Rockwall	Paxton	+6.9	17,175
Grayson	Cornyn	+1.1	16,699
Jefferson	Cornyn	+12.8	15,729
Taylor	Cornyn	+16.6	15,399
Kaufman	Paxton	+11.1	14,415
Midland	Cornyn	+6.1	14,349
Cameron	Cornyn	+11.8	13,629
Hunt	Paxton	+13.6	13,133
Hood	Paxton	+6.9	13,091
Henderson	Paxton	+0.8	13,057
Gregg	Cornyn	+11.6	12,049
Wise	Paxton	+13.0	11,788
Tom Green	Cornyn	+11.7	11,725
Bowie	Paxton	+6.5	11,519
Angelina	Cornyn	+1.3	10,969
Kerr	Paxton	+16.5	10,702
Kendall	Paxton	+2.2	10,341
Orange	Paxton	+8.7	10,303
Liberty	Paxton	+26.9	10,122
Van Zandt	Paxton	+12.4	9,723
Wichita	Paxton	+0.2	9,662
Bastrop	Cornyn	+2.0	9,568
Wood	Paxton	+14.9	9,510
Burnet	Cornyn	+11.7	9,477
Hardin	Paxton	+17.9	8,692
Harrison	Cornyn	+8.4	8,182
Ector	Paxton	+6.8	8,154
Victoria	Paxton	+13.0	8,030
Lamar	Paxton	+8.2	7,940
Polk	Paxton	+0.6	7,763
Chambers	Paxton	+12.0	7,581
Wilson	Paxton	+1.4	7,447
Potter	Cornyn	+10.7	7,402
Walker	Paxton	+9.9	7,267
Washington	Cornyn	+4.6	7,265
Nacogdoches	Paxton	+0.1	7,248
Gillespie	Cornyn	+6.9	7,183
Anderson	Cornyn	+2.4	7,092
Rusk	Paxton	+0.8	6,917
Medina	Paxton	+11.7	6,735
Upshur	Paxton	+14.5	6,727
Cherokee	Paxton	+8.9	6,701
Navarro	Paxton	+1.6	6,567
Cooke	Cornyn	+1.8	6,564
Coryell	Paxton	+0.6	6,490
Brown	Cornyn	+0.4	6,326
San Patricio	Paxton	+4.3	5,991
Waller	Paxton	+26.4	5,979
Hill	Cornyn	+3.7	5,947
Llano	Cornyn	+10.1	5,900
Fayette	Cornyn	+13.8	5,793
Erath	Cornyn	+0.7	5,532
Cass	Paxton	+25.6	5,414
Bandera	Paxton	+12.5	5,149
Wharton	Paxton	+7.8	5,148
Jasper	Paxton	+9.2	4,982
Fannin	Paxton	+3.5	4,977
San Jacinto	Paxton	+15.9	4,941
Austin	Paxton	+23.8	4,940
Palo Pinto	Paxton	+10.3	4,720
Aransas	Paxton	+2.0	4,515
Hopkins	Cornyn	+3.6	4,508
Grimes	Paxton	+10.7	4,403
Webb	Paxton	+9.3	4,377
Lampasas	Paxton	+10.9	4,253
Titus	Paxton	+1.7	4,023
Atascosa	Paxton	+1.2	3,890
Montague	Paxton	+9.2	3,782
Leon	Paxton	+15.8	3,773
Lavaca	Paxton	+11.7	3,706
Matagorda	Paxton	+14.0	3,642
Panola	Paxton	+22.5	3,594
Caldwell	Cornyn	+2.9	3,537
Bosque	Paxton	+5.7	3,527
Milam	Cornyn	+3.3	3,485
Limestone	Cornyn	+4.8	3,461
Houston	Paxton	+18.1	3,394
Tyler	Paxton	+6.0	3,369
Blanco	Cornyn	+8.2	3,349
Shelby	Paxton	+18.6	3,348
Freestone	Paxton	+3.9	3,310
Young	Cornyn	+7.5	3,296
Gray	Paxton	+8.0	3,234
Colorado	Paxton	+16.8	3,190
Trinity	Paxton	+2.2	3,180
Bee	Paxton	+0.3	3,111
Calhoun	Paxton	+1.2	3,102
Uvalde	Cornyn	+2.6	2,948
Burleson	Paxton	+12.8	2,883
Jackson	Paxton	+20.4	2,810
Hutchinson	Paxton	+12.5	2,770
Jones	Cornyn	+7.6	2,768
Lee	Cornyn	+15.0	2,759
Robertson	Paxton	+0.4	2,698
Val Verde	Paxton	+2.8	2,687
Sabine	Paxton	+25.8	2,631
Eastland	Paxton	+10.0	2,616
Hale	Paxton	+8.8	2,616
Hockley	Paxton	+13.4	2,601
Callahan	Cornyn	+3.6	2,535
Newton	Paxton	+1.8	2,534
Rains	Paxton	+11.0	2,461
Comanche	Cornyn	+1.9	2,457
DeWitt	Paxton	+2.2	2,403
Gonzales	Cornyn	+0.7	2,382
Somervell	Paxton	+4.8	2,329
Karnes	Cornyn	+4.0	2,310
Howard	Paxton	+12.2	2,282
Jim Wells	Cornyn	+5.2	2,266
Gaines	Paxton	+22.1	2,140
Franklin	Cornyn	+8.7	2,128
Nolan	Cornyn	+12.4	2,126
Clay	Cornyn	+2.8	2,076
Red River	Paxton	+8.8	2,042
Scurry	Cornyn	+7.2	2,021
Kleberg	Cornyn	+17.7	1,988
Archer	Cornyn	+3.8	1,943
Morris	Paxton	+14.2	1,855
Falls	Paxton	+0.9	1,847
Madison	Paxton	+9.4	1,828
Goliad	Paxton	+1.4	1,776
Andrews	Paxton	+13.7	1,771
San Augustine	Paxton	+20.5	1,751
Deaf Smith	Cornyn	+1.9	1,712
Stephens	Cornyn	+10.0	1,703
Camp	Paxton	+12.1	1,682
Hamilton	Cornyn	+4.9	1,637
Pecos	Paxton	+11.8	1,622
Coleman	Paxton	+8.7	1,606
Marion	Paxton	+12.1	1,600
Live Oak	Paxton	+0.1	1,579
Moore	Cornyn	+15.3	1,564
Jack	Paxton	+2.0	1,468
Lamb	Cornyn	+6.5	1,459
Runnels	Cornyn	+22.6	1,426
McCulloch	Paxton	+9.7	1,409
Wilbarger	Paxton	+16.6	1,378
Refugio	Paxton	+2.9	1,280
Terry	Paxton	+1.2	1,279
Carson	Cornyn	+14.6	1,215
Yoakum	Paxton	+7.5	1,211
Mason	Cornyn	+12.0	1,205
San Saba	Paxton	+6.7	1,201
Wheeler	Paxton	+10.8	1,123
Ochiltree	Paxton	+9.3	1,072
Parmer	Paxton	+1.2	1,030
Mills	Paxton	+4.2	1,007
Ward	Paxton	+9.0	1,002
Haskell	Cornyn	+3.4	991
Brewster	Paxton	+16.8	967
Dawson	Paxton	+1.7	959
Castro	Cornyn	+7.0	954
Kimble	Cornyn	+7.8	920
Hartley	Cornyn	+8.4	908
Hemphill	Paxton	+12.3	870
Fisher	Paxton	+20.0	850
Mitchell	Paxton	+20.9	841
Delta	Cornyn	+2.1	798
Lynn	Cornyn	+1.5	783
Martin	Paxton	+10.1	760
Swisher	Paxton	+9.8	753
Floyd	Cornyn	+17.1	741
Baylor	Cornyn	+13.3	739
Real	Paxton	+2.9	732
Crane	Cornyn	+1.0	707
Winkler	Paxton	+9.4	702
Bailey	Paxton	+5.1	679
Childress	Cornyn	+2.1	678
Coke	Cornyn	+8.0	665
Donley	Paxton	+4.7	663
Shackelford	Cornyn	+7.9	648
Hansford	Cornyn	+1.1	641
Lipscomb	Cornyn	+9.7	638
Concho	Cornyn	+6.3	632
Maverick	Paxton	+19.2	630
Crosby	Cornyn	+10.8	610
Hall	Paxton	+20.5	610
Schleicher	Cornyn	+16.2	592
Willacy	Paxton	+6.3	584
Garza	Cornyn	+5.6	567
Kinney	Paxton	+12.8	564
Sutton	Cornyn	+8.5	551
Jeff Davis	Cornyn	+1.3	538
Frio	Paxton	+17.1	537
Knox	Cornyn	+11.3	530
Armstrong	Paxton	+6.7	525
Hardeman	Cornyn	+12.5	487
Reagan	Paxton	+9.3	475
Menard	Cornyn	+24.8	472
Irion	Paxton	+4.7	467
Dallam	Cornyn	+8.6	451
Cochran	Paxton	+11.6	449
Hudspeth	Paxton	+13.8	448
Briscoe	Paxton	+12.0	416
Crockett	Paxton	+8.6	408
Oldham	Cornyn	+15.0	408
Collingsworth	Cornyn	+15.0	406
Edwards	Paxton	+3.7	402
Upton	Paxton	+15.1	398
Dickens	Paxton	+2.8	392
Cottle	Paxton	+5.3	377
Glasscock	Cornyn	+15.8	373
Sherman	Paxton	+1.2	344
Reeves	Paxton	+4.7	343
Roberts	Paxton	+29.7	307
Throckmorton	Cornyn	+5.9	304
Starr	Cornyn	+2.7	299
Motley	Cornyn	+9.3	290
Dimmit	Paxton	+22.5	253
Foard	Cornyn	+7.5	253
Zavala	Paxton	+13.3	240
Borden	Paxton	+10.0	239
Stonewall	Paxton	+2.6	236
Duval	Paxton	+1.4	217
Sterling	Cornyn	+21.3	216
McMullen	Paxton	+9.4	214
La Salle	Cornyn	+5.7	159
Kent	Cornyn	+5.7	158
Brooks	Paxton	+16.7	156
Terrell	Paxton	+9.7	134
King	Paxton	+1.0	97
Zapata	Paxton	+23.4	94
Culberson	Paxton	+27.7	83
Jim Hogg	Cornyn	+12.3	65
Presidio	Paxton	+9.8	61
Loving	Cornyn	+3.7	27
Kenedy	Cornyn	+30.8	13

Shift against the 2024 presidential vote

Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 253 counties reporting in both: 74.4 pts toward R.

10+ toward R
5–10 toward R
2–5 toward R
Within 2
2–5 toward D
5–10 toward D
10+ toward D
Not in both races

Biggest shifts toward R
County	2024	Now	Shift
Travis	D+39.3	R+100.0	139.3 toward R
Presidio	D+30.2	R+100.0	130.2 toward R
Dallas	D+22.2	R+100.0	122.2 toward R
El Paso	D+15.1	R+100.0	115.1 toward R
Zavala	D+14.4	R+100.0	114.4 toward R
Bexar	D+9.7	R+100.0	109.7 toward R
Brooks	D+9.6	R+100.0	109.6 toward R
Jim Hogg	D+8.3	R+100.0	108.3 toward R
Hays	D+5.6	R+100.0	105.6 toward R
Harris	D+5.5	R+100.0	105.5 toward R

How the count progressed

John CornynKen PaxtonWesley HuntVotes counted, times in UTC.

Updated 9 Oct, 17:18 UTC

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Mar 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error: 4.5 pts
Error on the winner’s margin: −5.7 pts

Final polling average, result and error per party or candidate, in percentage points
Candidate	Average	Result	Error
Cornyn (R)	33.8%	41.9%	−8.1
Paxton (R)	38.3%	40.7%	−2.4
Hunt (R)	16.5%	13.5%	+3.0
Republican	—	0.4%	—

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Polling trend

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
YouGov	2 Mar 2026	26 Feb 2026 – 2 Mar 2026	1,659	±2.4 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 36.0% new Cornyn (R) 32.0% new Hunt (R) 17.0% new	Source for YouGov poll (opens in a new tab)
Emerson College	1 Mar 2026	26 Feb 2026 – 27 Feb 2026	547	±4.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 40.0% +13.0 percentage points Cornyn (R) 36.0% +10.0 percentage points Hunt (R) 17.0% +1.0 percentage points	Source for Emerson College poll (opens in a new tab)
Quantus Insights (R)	27 Feb 2026	25 Feb 2026 – 26 Feb 2026	939	±3.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 43.0% new Cornyn (R) 38.0% new Hunt (R) 16.0% new	Source for Quantus Insights (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
UT Tyler	27 Feb 2026	13 Feb 2026 – 22 Feb 2026	—	—	—	Cornyn (R) 41.0% new Paxton (R) 35.0% new Hunt (R) 15.0% new	Source for UT Tyler poll (opens in a new tab)
Blueprint Polling (D)	26 Feb 2026	23 Feb 2026 – 24 Feb 2026	529	±4.3 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 42.0% new Cornyn (R) 30.0% new Hunt (R) 14.0% new	Source for Blueprint Polling (D) poll (opens in a new tab)
Victory Phones (R)	25 Feb 2026*	24 Feb 2026 – 25 Feb 2026	600	±4.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 39.0% new Cornyn (R) 30.0% new Hunt (R) 15.0% new	Source for Victory Phones (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Pulse Decision Science (R)	13 Feb 2026	8 Feb 2026 – 11 Feb 2026	800	±3.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 36.0% +2.0 percentage points Cornyn (R) 27.0% +1.0 percentage points Hunt (R) 15.0% −3.0 percentage points	Source for Pulse Decision Science (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	12 Feb 2026*	9 Feb 2026 – 12 Feb 2026	800	±3.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 36.0% +3.0 percentage points Cornyn (R) 29.0% +2.0 percentage points Hunt (R) 26.0% −2.0 percentage points	Source for McLaughlin & Associates (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
University of Houston/YouGov	9 Feb 2026	20 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026	550	±4.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 38.0% new Cornyn (R) 31.0% new Hunt (R) 17.0% new	Source for University of Houston/YouGov poll (opens in a new tab)
Pulse Decision Science (R)	8 Feb 2026	1 Feb 2026 – 3 Feb 2026	801	±3.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 34.0% −4.0 percentage points Cornyn (R) 26.0% −12.0 percentage points Hunt (R) 18.0% +2.0 percentage points	Source for Pulse Decision Science (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
J.L. Partners (R)	5 Feb 2026	31 Jan 2026 – 3 Feb 2026	600	±4.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 27.0% −2.0 percentage points Cornyn (R) 26.0% +2.0 percentage points Hunt (R) 26.0% +2.0 percentage points	Source for J.L. Partners (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Emerson College	15 Jan 2026	10 Jan 2026 – 12 Jan 2026	550	±4.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 27.0% new Cornyn (R) 26.0% new Hunt (R) 16.0% new	Source for Emerson College poll (opens in a new tab)
Harper Polling (R)	8 Jan 2026	5 Jan 2026 – 7 Jan 2026	600	±4.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 31.0% new Cornyn (R) 26.0% new Hunt (R) 23.0% new	Source for Harper Polling (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Pulse Decision Science (R)	23 Dec 2025	14 Dec 2025 – 17 Dec 2025	809	±3.4 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Cornyn (R) 38.0% new Paxton (R) 38.0% new Hunt (R) 16.0% new	Source for Pulse Decision Science (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
J.L. Partners (R)	5 Dec 2025	1 Dec 2025 – 3 Dec 2025	600	±4.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 29.0% new Cornyn (R) 24.0% new Hunt (R) 24.0% new	Source for J.L. Partners (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	5 Dec 2025	1 Dec 2025 – 4 Dec 2025	800	±3.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 33.0% new Hunt (R) 28.0% new Cornyn (R) 27.0% new	Source for McLaughlin & Associates (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Public Policy Polling (D)	4 Dec 2025	1 Dec 2025 – 2 Dec 2025	527	±4.3 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Paxton (R) 32.0% new Cornyn (R) 22.0% new Hunt (R) 22.0% new	Source for Public Policy Polling (D) poll (opens in a new tab)
co/efficient (R)	3 Dec 2025	1 Dec 2025 – 3 Dec 2025	1,022	±3.1 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Cornyn (R) 28.0% new Paxton (R) 27.0% new Hunt (R) 19.0% new	Source for co/efficient (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Peak Insights (R)	1 Dec 2025	20 Nov 2025 – 25 Nov 2025	600	±4.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Cornyn (R) 35.0% new Paxton (R) 33.0% new Hunt (R) 18.0% new	Source for Peak Insights (R) poll (opens in a new tab)
Ragnar Research Partners (R)	24 Nov 2025	13 Nov 2025 – 16 Nov 2025	758	±3.6 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Cornyn (R) 32.0% new Paxton (R) 31.0% new Hunt (R) 21.0% new	Source for Ragnar Research Partners (R) poll (opens in a new tab)

* End of fieldwork: the source states no publication date.

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Paxton (R) leads the polling average in Texas on 38.5%, 4.5 points ahead of Cornyn (R) (34.0%). The biggest shift over the past month is Paxton (R), up 9.8 points.

11 polls from 10 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from YouGov, published 2 Mar 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Candidates

Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.

Ken PaxtonRepublican
John CornynRepublican
Wesley HuntRepublican

Government

Who governs Texas now.

Greg Abbott

Governor of Texas