United States / Mississippi / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Mississippi
Mississippi polling average: Hyde-Smith (R) 45.3% — Colom (D) 42.1% — Hyde-Smith (R) +3.2Also: Pinkins (I) 6.0%Pollytic average to 22 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting98% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott ColomLeadingDemocratic Party | 466,877 | 49.0% | |
| Cindy Hyde-SmithRepublican Party | 464,993 | 48.9% | |
| Ty PinkinsIndependent | 20,023 | 2.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hinds | Colom | +60.8 | 77,465 |
| Harrison | Hyde-Smith | +3.7 | 58,850 |
| DeSoto | Colom | +6.1 | 54,184 |
| Rankin | Hyde-Smith | +25.6 | 51,331 |
| Madison | Colom | +0.8 | 45,766 |
| Jackson | Hyde-Smith | +14.7 | 35,432 |
| Lee | Hyde-Smith | +17.6 | 24,993 |
| Forrest | Colom | +10.3 | 22,433 |
| Lauderdale | Hyde-Smith | +1.7 | 21,874 |
| Lowndes | Colom | +16.1 | 21,417 |
All 82 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar | Hyde-Smith | +25.8 | 21,020 |
| Jones | Hyde-Smith | +23.6 | 20,308 |
| Lafayette | Colom | +1.2 | 17,223 |
| Hancock | Hyde-Smith | +41.3 | 16,732 |
| Pearl River | Hyde-Smith | +47.5 | 16,526 |
| Oktibbeha | Colom | +21.2 | 15,204 |
| Warren | Colom | +13.4 | 14,643 |
| Monroe | Hyde-Smith | +13.4 | 12,765 |
| Pike | Colom | +17.2 | 12,680 |
| Lincoln | Hyde-Smith | +30.0 | 12,391 |
| Marshall | Colom | +15.9 | 11,534 |
| Panola | Colom | +12.3 | 11,364 |
| Washington | Colom | +56.2 | 11,191 |
| Alcorn | Hyde-Smith | +52.8 | 11,164 |
| Pontotoc | Hyde-Smith | +47.2 | 10,206 |
| Bolivar | Colom | +41.2 | 9,895 |
| Copiah | Colom | +13.5 | 9,869 |
| Adams | Colom | +28.1 | 9,730 |
| Tate | Hyde-Smith | +19.4 | 9,215 |
| Union | Hyde-Smith | +52.5 | 8,939 |
| Clay | Colom | +33.9 | 8,635 |
| Marion | Hyde-Smith | +21.4 | 8,425 |
| Simpson | Hyde-Smith | +19.1 | 8,377 |
| Leflore | Colom | +51.0 | 8,221 |
| Neshoba | Hyde-Smith | +28.2 | 8,061 |
| Scott | Hyde-Smith | +2.2 | 7,790 |
| Grenada | Colom | +3.1 | 7,553 |
| Yazoo | Colom | +19.3 | 7,549 |
| Itawamba | Hyde-Smith | +65.8 | 7,435 |
| Tippah | Hyde-Smith | +48.2 | 7,372 |
| Prentiss | Hyde-Smith | +47.7 | 7,268 |
| Winston | Colom | +4.1 | 7,218 |
| Wayne | Hyde-Smith | +9.3 | 7,067 |
| Sunflower | Colom | +51.8 | 7,030 |
| Newton | Hyde-Smith | +24.5 | 6,860 |
| George | Hyde-Smith | +63.6 | 6,759 |
| Leake | Hyde-Smith | +4.4 | 6,432 |
| Holmes | Colom | +72.6 | 6,373 |
| Chickasaw | Colom | +8.0 | 6,338 |
| Tishomingo | Hyde-Smith | +64.2 | 6,300 |
| Jasper | Colom | +13.8 | 6,163 |
| Coahoma | Colom | +57.0 | 6,066 |
| Attala | Hyde-Smith | +2.6 | 5,904 |
| Covington | Hyde-Smith | +15.5 | 5,760 |
| Clarke | Hyde-Smith | +13.0 | 5,630 |
| Stone | Hyde-Smith | +39.5 | 5,508 |
| Smith | Hyde-Smith | +43.3 | 5,466 |
| Walthall | Hyde-Smith | +8.4 | 5,221 |
| Amite | Hyde-Smith | +18.1 | 5,120 |
| Yalobusha | Colom | +1.9 | 4,810 |
| Lawrence | Hyde-Smith | +19.4 | 4,619 |
| Calhoun | Hyde-Smith | +27.1 | 4,587 |
| Jefferson Davis | Colom | +30.9 | 4,558 |
| Tallahatchie | Colom | +29.6 | 4,377 |
| Noxubee | Colom | +62.7 | 4,287 |
| Carroll | Hyde-Smith | +24.9 | 4,063 |
| Webster | Hyde-Smith | +48.7 | 3,889 |
| Perry | Hyde-Smith | +37.7 | 3,818 |
| Montgomery | Hyde-Smith | +0.1 | 3,626 |
| Greene | Hyde-Smith | +51.8 | 3,476 |
| Kemper | Colom | +33.5 | 3,413 |
| Humphreys | Colom | +57.5 | 3,382 |
| Claiborne | Colom | +75.8 | 3,329 |
| Franklin | Hyde-Smith | +23.2 | 3,317 |
| Jefferson | Colom | +75.3 | 3,082 |
| Choctaw | Hyde-Smith | +30.9 | 3,010 |
| Benton | Hyde-Smith | +8.4 | 2,786 |
| Wilkinson | Colom | +40.0 | 2,631 |
| Tunica | Colom | +51.7 | 2,333 |
| Quitman | Colom | +51.3 | 2,205 |
| Sharkey | Colom | +36.8 | 1,597 |
| Issaquena | Colom | +4.0 | 453 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 4.8 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −3.4 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colom (D) | 42.1% | 49.0% | −6.9 |
| Hyde-Smith (R) | 45.3% | 48.9% | −3.6 |
| Pinkins (I) | 6.0% | 2.1% | +3.9 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Hyde-Smith (R) leads the polling average in Mississippi on 45.3%, 3.2 points ahead of Colom (D) (42.1%). The biggest shift over the past month is Colom (D), up 4.1 points.
2 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Change Research (D), published 22 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Cindy Hyde-SmithRepublican
- Scott ColomDemocratic
- Ty Pinkins
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe RForecast
Chance of winning: Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 92%, Scott Colom (D) 8%
- Cook Political ReportLikely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely R
- Inside ElectionsLikely R
- Split TicketLikely R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Inside Elections:Safe RLikely R3 Nov
- Split Ticket:Safe RLikely R3 Nov
- Cook Political Report:Safe RLikely R28 Oct
- FiftyPlusOne:Likely RSafe R28 Oct
- FiftyPlusOne:Safe RLikely R21 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RToss-up21 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
- VoteHub:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
Government
Who governs Mississippi now.
Tate Reeves
Governor of Mississippi