New Zealand / Next New Zealand general election
Roy Morgan
Voting intention · fieldwork ended 20 Oct 2024
- Country
- 🇳🇿 New Zealand
- Election
- Next New Zealand general election
- Polling institute
- Roy Morgan
- Published
- Not stated by the source
- Fieldwork
- 23 Sept 2024 – 20 Oct 2024
- Sample size
- 883
- Margin of error
- ±3.3 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))
- Methodology
- Not published
Results
Roy Morgan, 20 Oct 2024: New Zealand National leads with 31.0%, 2.0 points ahead of New Zealand Labour.
- New Zealand National Party31.0%−6.5 percentage points
- New Zealand Labour Party29.0%+6.0 percentage points
- Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand14.0%±0.0 percentage points
- ACT New Zealand9.0%−1.0 percentage points
- New Zealand First7.0%−0.5 percentage points
- Te Pāti Māori5.0%+1.0 percentage points
Change in percentage points vs. the previous poll by the same institute for this election.
Note: The source states no publication date; dated by the end of fieldwork.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.