United States / Alabama / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Alabama gubernatorial election
Alabama polling average: Tuberville (R) 49.3% — Jones (D) 42.4% — Tuberville (R) +6.9Pollytic average to 28 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting98% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy TubervilleProjected winnerRepublican Party | 873,339 | 52.0% | |
| Doug JonesDemocratic Party | 806,270 | 48.0% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | Jones | +36.6 | 246,954 |
| Madison | Jones | +16.2 | 159,340 |
| Mobile | Jones | +9.2 | 126,877 |
| Shelby | Tuberville | +12.8 | 86,127 |
| Baldwin | Tuberville | +39.0 | 85,315 |
| Montgomery | Jones | +50.3 | 79,853 |
| Tuscaloosa | Jones | +9.2 | 63,445 |
| Lee | Tuberville | +3.2 | 54,224 |
| Limestone | Tuberville | +16.6 | 40,470 |
| Morgan | Tuberville | +25.4 | 36,704 |
All 67 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | Tuberville | +17.3 | 32,392 |
| Houston | Tuberville | +26.9 | 32,017 |
| St. Clair | Tuberville | +39.6 | 31,154 |
| Etowah | Tuberville | +27.1 | 30,860 |
| Elmore | Tuberville | +31.0 | 30,746 |
| Lauderdale | Tuberville | +23.5 | 29,760 |
| Cullman | Tuberville | +62.7 | 27,029 |
| Marshall | Tuberville | +46.7 | 26,734 |
| Talladega | Tuberville | +5.5 | 24,324 |
| Autauga | Tuberville | +21.0 | 20,140 |
| DeKalb | Tuberville | +46.7 | 19,030 |
| Walker | Tuberville | +49.1 | 18,688 |
| Colbert | Tuberville | +17.2 | 18,429 |
| Blount | Tuberville | +60.8 | 17,782 |
| Coffee | Tuberville | +38.8 | 16,323 |
| Russell | Jones | +22.4 | 14,859 |
| Tallapoosa | Tuberville | +31.6 | 14,637 |
| Jackson | Tuberville | +47.2 | 14,310 |
| Dallas | Jones | +48.3 | 13,623 |
| Dale | Tuberville | +33.5 | 13,621 |
| Chilton | Tuberville | +50.9 | 12,974 |
| Covington | Tuberville | +56.2 | 11,127 |
| Chambers | Tuberville | +2.7 | 10,333 |
| Pike | Tuberville | +3.6 | 10,194 |
| Lawrence | Tuberville | +35.8 | 10,099 |
| Escambia | Tuberville | +26.4 | 9,717 |
| Clarke | Jones | +5.6 | 9,487 |
| Geneva | Tuberville | +62.7 | 8,974 |
| Cherokee | Tuberville | +58.2 | 8,473 |
| Marion | Tuberville | +64.3 | 8,152 |
| Franklin | Tuberville | +40.6 | 7,962 |
| Marengo | Jones | +15.1 | 7,917 |
| Monroe | Tuberville | +7.3 | 7,467 |
| Barbour | Jones | +3.9 | 7,454 |
| Randolph | Tuberville | +47.2 | 7,192 |
| Winston | Tuberville | +66.2 | 6,920 |
| Pickens | Tuberville | +7.4 | 6,917 |
| Henry | Tuberville | +34.5 | 6,788 |
| Butler | Tuberville | +3.8 | 6,735 |
| Macon | Jones | +66.5 | 6,583 |
| Washington | Tuberville | +37.6 | 6,256 |
| Bibb | Tuberville | +42.0 | 6,138 |
| Hale | Jones | +26.9 | 6,093 |
| Fayette | Tuberville | +55.9 | 5,927 |
| Choctaw | Tuberville | +7.8 | 5,382 |
| Wilcox | Jones | +42.2 | 5,035 |
| Conecuh | Jones | +2.6 | 4,891 |
| Lowndes | Jones | +51.6 | 4,840 |
| Crenshaw | Tuberville | +36.2 | 4,727 |
| Clay | Tuberville | +54.8 | 4,521 |
| Lamar | Tuberville | +62.7 | 4,518 |
| Cleburne | Tuberville | +67.8 | 4,449 |
| Sumter | Jones | +54.8 | 4,437 |
| Perry | Jones | +55.5 | 4,095 |
| Coosa | Tuberville | +23.0 | 3,809 |
| Bullock | Jones | +57.1 | 3,666 |
| Greene | Jones | +68.8 | 3,593 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 4.2 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- +2.7 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuberville (R) | 49.3% | 52.1% | −2.8 |
| Jones (D) | 42.4% | 47.9% | −5.5 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Tuberville (R) leads the polling average in Alabama on 49.3%, 6.9 points ahead of Jones (D) (42.4%). The biggest shift over the past month is Jones (D), up 1.4 points.
4 polls from 4 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Chism Strategies (D), published 28 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Tommy TubervilleRepublican
- Doug JonesDemocratic
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Likely RForecast
Chance of winning: Tommy Tuberville (R) 87%, Doug Jones (D) 13%
- Cook Political ReportSafe R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely R
- Inside ElectionsSafe R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- PredictIt:Safe RLikely R3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Safe RLikely R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RSafe R21 Oct
- PredictIt:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
- Kalshi:Likely RSafe R4 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RSafe R4 Oct
Government
Who governs Alabama now.
Kay Ivey
Governor of Alabama