United States / California / Gubernatorial Election
2026 California gubernatorial election
California polling average: Becerra (D) 58.8% — Hilton (R) 35.4% — Becerra (D) +23.4Pollytic average to 31 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier BecerraWinnerDemocratic Party | 5,681,264 | 64.6% | |
| Steve HiltonRepublican Party | 3,112,092 | 35.4% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | Becerra | +44.2 | 2,475,723 |
| Orange | Becerra | +7.7 | 881,654 |
| San Diego | Becerra | +21.4 | 807,505 |
| San Bernardino | Becerra | +16.8 | 421,221 |
| Riverside | Becerra | +15.1 | 398,135 |
| Santa Clara | Becerra | +40.3 | 354,760 |
| Alameda | Becerra | +58.4 | 309,715 |
| Sacramento | Becerra | +27.4 | 268,289 |
| Contra Costa | Becerra | +41.6 | 267,812 |
| San Francisco | Becerra | +68.1 | 248,173 |
All 58 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ventura | Becerra | +21.3 | 206,522 |
| Fresno | Becerra | +7.8 | 165,252 |
| San Mateo | Becerra | +48.1 | 164,948 |
| Kern | Hilton | +0.7 | 142,475 |
| Solano | Becerra | +30.1 | 133,801 |
| Placer | Hilton | +5.5 | 129,828 |
| San Joaquin | Becerra | +13.7 | 119,924 |
| Sonoma | Becerra | +51.9 | 106,915 |
| Santa Barbara | Becerra | +31.9 | 99,602 |
| Stanislaus | Becerra | +5.9 | 99,420 |
| Monterey | Becerra | +40.2 | 89,122 |
| Santa Cruz | Becerra | +58.3 | 82,305 |
| Tulare | Hilton | +3.8 | 71,769 |
| San Luis Obispo | Becerra | +15.4 | 71,481 |
| El Dorado | Hilton | +10.3 | 69,110 |
| Marin | Becerra | +59.2 | 68,640 |
| Butte | Hilton | +0.5 | 59,107 |
| Yolo | Becerra | +46.5 | 45,948 |
| Merced | Becerra | +16.1 | 41,526 |
| Shasta | Hilton | +27.5 | 34,475 |
| Kings | Hilton | +6.0 | 32,717 |
| Madera | Hilton | +3.4 | 29,394 |
| Nevada | Becerra | +16.6 | 28,877 |
| Humboldt | Becerra | +31.9 | 25,103 |
| Imperial | Becerra | +31.0 | 24,344 |
| Napa | Becerra | +38.1 | 20,693 |
| Tuolumne | Hilton | +15.4 | 18,509 |
| Mendocino | Becerra | +38.4 | 17,197 |
| Tehama | Hilton | +33.6 | 17,027 |
| Calaveras | Hilton | +23.9 | 16,396 |
| Amador | Hilton | +24.5 | 15,373 |
| Siskiyou | Hilton | +16.3 | 13,726 |
| Sutter | Hilton | +15.1 | 13,598 |
| San Benito | Becerra | +21.8 | 10,417 |
| Yuba | Hilton | +15.4 | 8,912 |
| Plumas | Hilton | +14.2 | 8,149 |
| Lake | Becerra | +12.2 | 7,707 |
| Mariposa | Hilton | +18.1 | 7,663 |
| Lassen | Hilton | +52.1 | 7,615 |
| Inyo | Becerra | +4.8 | 7,321 |
| Glenn | Hilton | +30.9 | 5,571 |
| Del Norte | Hilton | +5.7 | 5,484 |
| Mono | Becerra | +22.3 | 4,864 |
| Colusa | Hilton | +11.0 | 4,349 |
| Trinity | Hilton | +4.2 | 2,732 |
| Modoc | Hilton | +46.3 | 2,432 |
| Sierra | Hilton | +25.1 | 1,469 |
| Alpine | Becerra | +32.5 | 560 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 58 counties reporting in both: 8.6 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imperial | R+0.9 | D+31.0 | 31.9 toward D |
| Merced | R+4.4 | D+16.1 | 20.5 toward D |
| Kern | R+21.1 | R+0.7 | 20.4 toward D |
| San Bernardino | R+2.1 | D+16.8 | 18.9 toward D |
| Madera | R+20.8 | R+3.4 | 17.4 toward D |
| Colusa | R+28.2 | R+11.0 | 17.3 toward D |
| Kings | R+23.0 | R+6.0 | 17.0 toward D |
| Tulare | R+20.7 | R+3.8 | 16.9 toward D |
| Stanislaus | R+11.0 | D+5.9 | 16.8 toward D |
| Riverside | R+1.3 | D+15.1 | 16.3 toward D |
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marin | D+63.9 | D+59.2 | 4.8 toward R |
| San Mateo | D+50.3 | D+48.1 | 2.2 toward R |
| Sierra | R+24.2 | R+25.1 | 0.9 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 2.9 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −4.5 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Becerra (D) | 58.8% | 63.9% | −5.1 |
| Hilton (R) | 35.4% | 36.1% | −0.7 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Becerra (D) leads the polling average in California on 58.8%, 23.4 points ahead of Hilton (R) (35.4%). The biggest shift over the past month is Becerra (D), up 2.8 points.
11 polls from 10 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from ActiVote, published 31 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Xavier BecerraDemocratic
- Steve HiltonRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: Xavier Becerra (D) 94%, Steve Hilton (R) 6%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 6 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
Government
Who governs California now.
Gavin Newsom
Governor of California