United States / Iowa / Senate Election
2026 Iowa Senate Republican primary
Iowa polling average: Hinson (R) 58.0% — Carlin (R) 19.0% — Hinson (R) +39.0Pollytic average to 28 May 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley HinsonProjected winnerRepublican Party | 153,230 | 73.9% | |
| Jim CarlinRepublican Party | 53,434 | 25.8% | |
| Write-InNonpartisan | 640 | 0.3% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polk | Hinson | +53.3 | 26,105 |
| Linn | Hinson | +58.5 | 11,500 |
| Scott | Hinson | +44.6 | 9,086 |
| Dallas | Hinson | +54.6 | 7,497 |
| Pottawattamie | Hinson | +42.1 | 5,534 |
| Black Hawk | Hinson | +67.4 | 5,445 |
| Woodbury | Hinson | +25.2 | 5,338 |
| Sioux | Hinson | +22.8 | 5,245 |
| Story | Hinson | +47.5 | 5,040 |
| Dubuque | Hinson | +68.0 | 4,802 |
All 99 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | Hinson | +63.7 | 4,731 |
| Warren | Hinson | +49.3 | 4,480 |
| Marion | Hinson | +41.9 | 3,751 |
| Jasper | Hinson | +51.2 | 2,964 |
| Benton | Hinson | +65.7 | 2,736 |
| Mahaska | Hinson | +30.1 | 2,699 |
| Cerro Gordo | Hinson | +35.7 | 2,597 |
| Clinton | Hinson | +46.1 | 2,491 |
| Des Moines | Hinson | +43.9 | 2,470 |
| Plymouth | Hinson | +16.9 | 2,421 |
| Marshall | Hinson | +62.9 | 2,347 |
| Muscatine | Hinson | +46.9 | 2,284 |
| Dickinson | Hinson | +30.6 | 2,224 |
| Boone | Hinson | +47.3 | 2,066 |
| Madison | Hinson | +38.5 | 2,048 |
| Washington | Hinson | +53.3 | 2,017 |
| Kossuth | Hinson | +21.8 | 1,951 |
| Webster | Hinson | +58.5 | 1,949 |
| Wapello | Hinson | +45.1 | 1,897 |
| Carroll | Hinson | +48.4 | 1,775 |
| Cherokee | Hinson | +41.5 | 1,688 |
| Lyon | Hinson | +27.9 | 1,671 |
| Hardin | Hinson | +52.5 | 1,635 |
| Sac | Hinson | +33.8 | 1,632 |
| Clay | Hinson | +34.8 | 1,601 |
| Iowa | Hinson | +61.2 | 1,545 |
| Obrien | Hinson | +27.1 | 1,541 |
| Guthrie | Hinson | +47.9 | 1,528 |
| Mills | Hinson | +37.8 | 1,512 |
| Harrison | Hinson | +22.2 | 1,493 |
| Page | Hinson | +50.2 | 1,463 |
| Henry | Hinson | +45.1 | 1,462 |
| Tama | Hinson | +59.6 | 1,442 |
| Lee | Hinson | +45.8 | 1,438 |
| Jackson | Hinson | +60.5 | 1,377 |
| Crawford | Hinson | +28.0 | 1,327 |
| Winneshiek | Hinson | +53.4 | 1,322 |
| Bremer | Hinson | +54.8 | 1,318 |
| Cedar | Hinson | +59.4 | 1,304 |
| Buchanan | Hinson | +55.2 | 1,289 |
| Hamilton | Hinson | +54.1 | 1,265 |
| Allamakee | Hinson | +61.1 | 1,231 |
| Clayton | Hinson | +60.9 | 1,211 |
| Grundy | Hinson | +64.8 | 1,202 |
| Fayette | Hinson | +66.6 | 1,199 |
| Delaware | Hinson | +65.4 | 1,166 |
| Appanoose | Hinson | +56.0 | 1,158 |
| Wright | Hinson | +38.8 | 1,119 |
| Poweshiek | Hinson | +69.2 | 1,105 |
| Jones | Hinson | +69.9 | 1,084 |
| Jefferson | Hinson | +49.3 | 1,057 |
| Buena Vista | Hinson | +40.0 | 1,048 |
| Cass | Hinson | +49.6 | 1,024 |
| Butler | Hinson | +57.0 | 978 |
| Shelby | Hinson | +24.3 | 948 |
| Hancock | Hinson | +17.2 | 882 |
| Keokuk | Hinson | +61.6 | 879 |
| Palo Alto | Hinson | +31.4 | 835 |
| Winnebago | Hinson | +27.8 | 830 |
| Union | Hinson | +56.1 | 808 |
| Davis | Hinson | +44.4 | 804 |
| Franklin | Hinson | +42.1 | 800 |
| Humboldt | Hinson | +47.5 | 785 |
| Worth | Hinson | +48.7 | 776 |
| Mitchell | Hinson | +57.4 | 775 |
| Decatur | Hinson | +50.9 | 768 |
| Floyd | Hinson | +48.8 | 768 |
| Montgomery | Hinson | +48.2 | 764 |
| Clarke | Hinson | +49.4 | 739 |
| Calhoun | Hinson | +59.8 | 736 |
| Osceola | Hinson | +21.0 | 735 |
| Monona | Hinson | +20.2 | 714 |
| Lucas | Hinson | +36.7 | 705 |
| Van Buren | Hinson | +45.8 | 700 |
| Greene | Hinson | +64.4 | 696 |
| Adair | Hinson | +51.4 | 664 |
| Fremont | Hinson | +39.2 | 656 |
| Emmet | Hinson | +15.7 | 643 |
| Audubon | Hinson | +43.5 | 639 |
| Ida | Hinson | +38.8 | 634 |
| Louisa | Hinson | +48.1 | 601 |
| Monroe | Hinson | +54.9 | 598 |
| Chickasaw | Hinson | +55.8 | 572 |
| Ringgold | Hinson | +52.8 | 557 |
| Pocahontas | Hinson | +52.1 | 555 |
| Taylor | Hinson | +55.4 | 543 |
| Wayne | Hinson | +40.8 | 524 |
| Howard | Hinson | +64.9 | 393 |
| Adams | Hinson | +48.4 | 353 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 99 counties reporting in both: 79.4 pts toward R.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | D+37.8 | R+99.8 | 137.6 toward R |
| Polk | D+10.8 | R+99.6 | 110.5 toward R |
| Story | D+10.3 | R+99.6 | 109.9 toward R |
| Linn | D+9.9 | R+98.7 | 108.6 toward R |
| Black Hawk | D+1.2 | R+99.8 | 101.0 toward R |
| Scott | R+3.9 | R+99.8 | 96.0 toward R |
| Dallas | R+4.7 | R+99.7 | 95.0 toward R |
| Jefferson | R+6.8 | R+100.0 | 93.2 toward R |
| Dubuque | R+8.6 | R+99.9 | 91.3 toward R |
| Winneshiek | R+9.2 | R+99.7 | 90.5 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 11.4 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −9.1 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hinson (R) | 58.0% | 73.9% | −15.9 |
| Carlin (R) | 19.0% | 25.8% | −6.8 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Hinson (R) leads the polling average in Iowa on 58.0%, 39.0 points ahead of Carlin (R) (19.0%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.
1 poll from 1 institute was published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from JMC Analytics (R), published 28 May 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Ashley HinsonRepublican
- Jim CarlinRepublican
Government
Who governs Iowa now.
Kim Reynolds
Governor of Iowa