United States / Iowa / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Iowa
Iowa polling average: Turek (D) 47.6% — Hinson (R) 46.8% — Turek (D) +0.8Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting99% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh TurekProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 686,486 | 50.5% | |
| Ashley HinsonRepublican Party | 630,615 | 46.3% | |
| Thomas LaehnLibertarian Party | 42,052 | 3.1% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 1,686 | 0.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polk | Turek | +26.6 | 220,819 |
| Linn | Turek | +23.9 | 106,868 |
| Johnson | Turek | +52.5 | 75,023 |
| Scott | Turek | +12.2 | 73,650 |
| Dallas | Turek | +10.7 | 55,868 |
| Black Hawk | Turek | +18.6 | 52,761 |
| Dubuque | Turek | +5.3 | 43,705 |
| Story | Turek | +28.1 | 42,204 |
| Woodbury | Hinson | +2.2 | 33,650 |
| Pottawattamie | Turek | +0.2 | 33,560 |
All 99 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warren | Hinson | +3.8 | 27,664 |
| Cerro Gordo | Turek | +3.5 | 18,532 |
| Clinton | Hinson | +2.0 | 18,478 |
| Jasper | Hinson | +10.3 | 16,326 |
| Marion | Hinson | +24.2 | 15,965 |
| Muscatine | Turek | +6.5 | 15,882 |
| Sioux | Hinson | +61.1 | 15,291 |
| Des Moines | Turek | +1.1 | 14,762 |
| Marshall | Turek | +4.1 | 14,557 |
| Webster | Hinson | +10.3 | 12,671 |
| Boone | Hinson | +2.1 | 12,403 |
| Lee | Hinson | +6.4 | 12,011 |
| Benton | Hinson | +18.0 | 11,908 |
| Bremer | Hinson | +8.7 | 11,889 |
| Wapello | Hinson | +6.4 | 11,095 |
| Plymouth | Hinson | +38.5 | 10,879 |
| Winneshiek | Turek | +3.6 | 10,370 |
| Washington | Hinson | +11.4 | 9,634 |
| Dickinson | Hinson | +27.4 | 9,509 |
| Carroll | Hinson | +25.2 | 8,864 |
| Cedar | Hinson | +5.6 | 8,691 |
| Buchanan | Hinson | +11.4 | 8,645 |
| Jones | Hinson | +12.2 | 8,642 |
| Jackson | Hinson | +17.6 | 8,512 |
| Mahaska | Hinson | +35.9 | 8,333 |
| Poweshiek | Hinson | +1.1 | 8,013 |
| Delaware | Hinson | +25.6 | 7,994 |
| Iowa | Hinson | +14.4 | 7,892 |
| Fayette | Hinson | +13.4 | 7,886 |
| Madison | Hinson | +21.3 | 7,829 |
| Henry | Hinson | +18.0 | 7,494 |
| Clayton | Hinson | +18.9 | 7,361 |
| Tama | Hinson | +10.8 | 7,101 |
| Jefferson | Turek | +9.9 | 6,868 |
| Hardin | Hinson | +21.3 | 6,703 |
| Kossuth | Hinson | +31.8 | 6,667 |
| Clay | Hinson | +25.0 | 6,608 |
| Butler | Hinson | +29.8 | 6,381 |
| Mills | Hinson | +21.9 | 6,139 |
| Floyd | Hinson | +9.1 | 6,078 |
| Buena Vista | Hinson | +10.4 | 5,889 |
| Hamilton | Hinson | +13.7 | 5,835 |
| Grundy | Hinson | +29.2 | 5,780 |
| Harrison | Hinson | +21.0 | 5,773 |
| Allamakee | Hinson | +18.3 | 5,715 |
| O'Brien | Hinson | +46.8 | 5,547 |
| Lyon | Hinson | +60.0 | 5,401 |
| Cass | Hinson | +26.9 | 5,289 |
| Page | Hinson | +24.5 | 5,263 |
| Guthrie | Hinson | +23.7 | 5,199 |
| Crawford | Hinson | +17.2 | 4,962 |
| Chickasaw | Hinson | +20.3 | 4,914 |
| Shelby | Hinson | +27.7 | 4,877 |
| Appanoose | Hinson | +23.8 | 4,802 |
| Cherokee | Hinson | +29.0 | 4,758 |
| Union | Hinson | +14.9 | 4,645 |
| Hancock | Hinson | +33.2 | 4,562 |
| Mitchell | Hinson | +16.5 | 4,445 |
| Winnebago | Hinson | +17.8 | 4,419 |
| Wright | Hinson | +18.1 | 4,400 |
| Sac | Hinson | +33.8 | 4,270 |
| Palo Alto | Hinson | +28.3 | 4,018 |
| Keokuk | Hinson | +32.9 | 3,887 |
| Louisa | Hinson | +20.4 | 3,860 |
| Franklin | Hinson | +25.8 | 3,814 |
| Humboldt | Hinson | +35.4 | 3,809 |
| Howard | Hinson | +17.5 | 3,756 |
| Calhoun | Hinson | +28.7 | 3,733 |
| Greene | Hinson | +14.2 | 3,714 |
| Montgomery | Hinson | +23.1 | 3,705 |
| Emmet | Hinson | +24.9 | 3,549 |
| Clarke | Hinson | +21.7 | 3,503 |
| Lucas | Hinson | +32.2 | 3,464 |
| Monona | Hinson | +27.0 | 3,394 |
| Worth | Hinson | +12.8 | 3,393 |
| Adair | Hinson | +27.3 | 3,130 |
| Monroe | Hinson | +31.4 | 3,060 |
| Davis | Hinson | +34.3 | 2,967 |
| Decatur | Hinson | +26.7 | 2,805 |
| Van Buren | Hinson | +40.1 | 2,792 |
| Ida | Hinson | +38.4 | 2,760 |
| Pocahontas | Hinson | +36.5 | 2,748 |
| Fremont | Hinson | +24.0 | 2,628 |
| Audubon | Hinson | +21.4 | 2,437 |
| Osceola | Hinson | +52.2 | 2,385 |
| Wayne | Hinson | +35.1 | 2,256 |
| Taylor | Hinson | +38.3 | 2,184 |
| Ringgold | Hinson | +32.3 | 2,094 |
| Adams | Hinson | +28.5 | 1,614 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 99 counties reporting in both: 16.3 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crawford | R+43.4 | R+17.2 | 26.2 toward D |
| Wapello | R+31.4 | R+6.4 | 25.0 toward D |
| Buena Vista | R+33.2 | R+10.4 | 22.8 toward D |
| Appanoose | R+46.5 | R+23.8 | 22.7 toward D |
| Wayne | R+57.1 | R+35.1 | 22.0 toward D |
| Muscatine | R+14.9 | D+6.5 | 21.4 toward D |
| Lee | R+27.7 | R+6.4 | 21.4 toward D |
| Union | R+36.1 | R+14.9 | 21.2 toward D |
| Webster | R+31.1 | R+10.3 | 20.8 toward D |
| Harrison | R+41.7 | R+21.0 | 20.7 toward D |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
The race in Iowa is too close to call: Turek (D) (47.6%) and Hinson (R) (46.8%) are within a point of each other in the polling average. The biggest shift over the past month is Hinson (R), up 1.1 points.
14 polls from 13 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from GrayHouse (R), published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Josh TurekDemocratic
- Ashley HinsonRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Toss-upForecast
Chance of winning: Josh Turek (D) 51%, Ashley Hinson (R) 49%
- Cook Political ReportToss-up
- Sabato's Crystal BallToss-up
- Inside ElectionsToss-up
- Split TicketToss-up
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Inside Elections:Tilt RToss-up3 Nov
- VoteHub:Tilt RToss-up3 Nov
- CM Election Predictions:Toss-upLean R28 Oct
- ElectIndex:Toss-upLean D28 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Lean RToss-up21 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Toss-upLean R20 Oct
Government
Who governs Iowa now.
Kim Reynolds
Governor of Iowa