United States / Kansas / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Kansas gubernatorial election
Kansas polling average: Holscher (D) 48.4% — Masterson (R) 48.0% — Holscher (D) +0.4Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cindy HolscherDemocratic Party | 549,974 | 50.3% | |
| Ty MastersonRepublican Party | 542,929 | 49.7% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | Holscher | +22.7 | 294,984 |
| Sedgwick | Holscher | +4.6 | 181,285 |
| Shawnee | Holscher | +13.9 | 69,061 |
| Douglas | Holscher | +52.2 | 50,702 |
| Wyandotte | Holscher | +45.8 | 42,895 |
| Leavenworth | Masterson | +6.6 | 28,279 |
| Butler | Masterson | +26.0 | 25,927 |
| Reno | Masterson | +20.2 | 21,629 |
| Riley | Holscher | +17.4 | 19,928 |
| Saline | Masterson | +17.7 | 19,520 |
All 105 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | Masterson | +23.8 | 14,040 |
| Harvey | Masterson | +7.6 | 13,643 |
| Crawford | Masterson | +8.1 | 12,133 |
| McPherson | Masterson | +28.6 | 11,475 |
| Lyon | Holscher | +2.6 | 11,208 |
| Pottawatomie | Masterson | +33.7 | 10,782 |
| Ellis | Masterson | +27.9 | 10,619 |
| Cowley | Masterson | +24.9 | 10,451 |
| Franklin | Masterson | +23.7 | 9,737 |
| Finney | Masterson | +1.2 | 9,072 |
| Montgomery | Masterson | +34.1 | 9,016 |
| Barton | Masterson | +42.0 | 8,425 |
| Sumner | Masterson | +33.1 | 8,081 |
| Jefferson | Masterson | +23.7 | 7,879 |
| Ford | Masterson | +2.0 | 7,177 |
| Dickinson | Masterson | +41.6 | 7,158 |
| Geary | Holscher | +0.1 | 6,716 |
| Osage | Masterson | +34.3 | 6,060 |
| Cherokee | Masterson | +40.0 | 6,027 |
| Labette | Masterson | +23.9 | 5,811 |
| Jackson | Masterson | +27.8 | 5,270 |
| Atchison | Masterson | +21.1 | 5,168 |
| Neosho | Masterson | +33.0 | 4,892 |
| Marion | Masterson | +37.0 | 4,679 |
| Bourbon | Masterson | +42.4 | 4,578 |
| Nemaha | Masterson | +59.8 | 4,455 |
| Seward | Holscher | +8.9 | 4,170 |
| Allen | Masterson | +29.3 | 4,066 |
| Marshall | Masterson | +40.0 | 3,882 |
| Linn | Masterson | +53.3 | 3,609 |
| Coffey | Masterson | +45.6 | 3,356 |
| Brown | Masterson | +37.7 | 3,354 |
| Clay | Masterson | +45.5 | 3,314 |
| Pratt | Masterson | +36.4 | 3,279 |
| Wabaunsee | Masterson | +38.1 | 3,246 |
| Cloud | Masterson | +47.2 | 3,145 |
| Kingman | Masterson | +46.9 | 3,095 |
| Rice | Masterson | +41.4 | 3,089 |
| Anderson | Masterson | +45.7 | 2,845 |
| Thomas | Masterson | +53.0 | 2,834 |
| Wilson | Masterson | +52.2 | 2,764 |
| Doniphan | Masterson | +54.1 | 2,557 |
| Russell | Masterson | +50.3 | 2,533 |
| Mitchell | Masterson | +55.3 | 2,480 |
| Ottawa | Masterson | +58.1 | 2,432 |
| Morris | Masterson | +29.2 | 2,315 |
| Ellsworth | Masterson | +38.0 | 2,229 |
| Greenwood | Masterson | +48.6 | 2,207 |
| Washington | Masterson | +63.8 | 2,159 |
| Pawnee | Masterson | +39.0 | 2,046 |
| Phillips | Masterson | +66.8 | 1,971 |
| Rooks | Masterson | +59.0 | 1,931 |
| Republic | Masterson | +55.4 | 1,930 |
| Sherman | Masterson | +58.0 | 1,892 |
| Harper | Masterson | +51.8 | 1,847 |
| Norton | Masterson | +58.4 | 1,794 |
| Barber | Masterson | +61.1 | 1,654 |
| Scott | Masterson | +58.8 | 1,649 |
| Gray | Masterson | +55.7 | 1,645 |
| Grant | Masterson | +41.0 | 1,641 |
| Smith | Masterson | +60.9 | 1,519 |
| Stafford | Masterson | +50.4 | 1,501 |
| Stevens | Masterson | +57.3 | 1,357 |
| Meade | Masterson | +56.0 | 1,355 |
| Trego | Masterson | +59.3 | 1,347 |
| Osborne | Masterson | +59.5 | 1,293 |
| Rush | Masterson | +51.3 | 1,285 |
| Lincoln | Masterson | +56.2 | 1,278 |
| Jewell | Masterson | +70.9 | 1,197 |
| Chase | Masterson | +37.1 | 1,142 |
| Woodson | Masterson | +50.0 | 1,113 |
| Chautauqua | Masterson | +61.2 | 1,109 |
| Logan | Masterson | +62.8 | 1,101 |
| Decatur | Masterson | +63.3 | 1,089 |
| Rawlins | Masterson | +60.7 | 1,073 |
| Ness | Masterson | +68.3 | 1,071 |
| Cheyenne | Masterson | +63.2 | 1,064 |
| Sheridan | Masterson | +74.9 | 1,060 |
| Kearny | Masterson | +54.0 | 1,030 |
| Edwards | Masterson | +51.3 | 1,019 |
| Graham | Masterson | +53.8 | 1,012 |
| Haskell | Masterson | +50.1 | 1,010 |
| Elk | Masterson | +60.2 | 996 |
| Gove | Masterson | +66.2 | 952 |
| Kiowa | Masterson | +61.5 | 879 |
| Morton | Masterson | +62.9 | 761 |
| Clark | Masterson | +56.4 | 747 |
| Hodgeman | Masterson | +58.7 | 727 |
| Wichita | Masterson | +63.2 | 691 |
| Lane | Masterson | +61.5 | 649 |
| Comanche | Masterson | +54.9 | 630 |
| Wallace | Masterson | +76.7 | 592 |
| Hamilton | Masterson | +49.3 | 568 |
| Stanton | Masterson | +53.8 | 524 |
| Greeley | Masterson | +54.5 | 440 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 1.8 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −1.0 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holscher (D) | 48.0% | 50.3% | −2.3 |
| Masterson (R) | 48.5% | 49.7% | −1.2 |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
The race in Kansas is too close to call: Holscher (D) (48.4%) and Masterson (R) (48.0%) are within a point of each other in the polling average. The biggest shift over the past month is Holscher (D), up 2.1 points.
9 polls from 8 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Survey 160, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Cindy HolscherDemocratic
- Ty MastersonRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Tilt RForecast
Chance of winning: Ty Masterson (R) 63%, Cindy Holscher (D) 37%
- Cook Political ReportToss-up
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean R
- Inside ElectionsTilt R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- CM Election Predictions:Lean RToss-up3 Nov
- Kalshi:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Polymarket:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- PredictIt:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Model:Lean RTilt R28 Oct
- Cook Political Report:Lean RToss-up28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Model:Tilt RLean R20 Oct
- PredictIt:Lean RLikely R20 Oct
- Model:Lean RTilt R4 Oct
Government
Who governs Kansas now.
Laura Kelly
Governor of Kansas