United States / New Mexico / Gubernatorial Election
2026 New Mexico gubernatorial election
New Mexico polling average: Haaland (D) 50.3% — Hull (R) 43.4% — Haaland (D) +6.9Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting89% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deb HaalandProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 415,484 | 57.3% | |
| Gregg HullRepublican Party | 309,210 | 42.7% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernalillo | Haaland | +25.1 | 249,867 |
| Santa Fe | Haaland | +54.5 | 70,502 |
| Dona Ana | Haaland | +27.7 | 66,727 |
| Sandoval | Haaland | +2.7 | 64,455 |
| San Juan | Hull | +22.1 | 38,594 |
| Valencia | Hull | +6.7 | 26,123 |
| McKinley | Haaland | +45.0 | 20,004 |
| Otero | Hull | +14.2 | 18,027 |
| Eddy | Hull | +44.8 | 16,183 |
| Chaves | Hull | +32.4 | 15,514 |
All 33 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lea | Hull | +44.2 | 13,364 |
| Taos | Haaland | +55.7 | 13,335 |
| Rio Arriba | Haaland | +23.5 | 12,548 |
| Grant | Haaland | +16.7 | 11,550 |
| Curry | Hull | +31.3 | 10,341 |
| Los Alamos | Haaland | +29.4 | 9,878 |
| San Miguel | Haaland | +33.7 | 8,975 |
| Lincoln | Hull | +33.4 | 7,671 |
| Cibola | Haaland | +4.1 | 7,203 |
| Luna | Haaland | +3.4 | 5,957 |
| Socorro | Haaland | +10.5 | 5,804 |
| Torrance | Hull | +30.6 | 5,491 |
| Roosevelt | Hull | +33.6 | 4,790 |
| Colfax | Hull | +8.7 | 4,764 |
| Sierra | Hull | +11.5 | 4,757 |
| Quay | Hull | +34.3 | 2,783 |
| Mora | Haaland | +18.9 | 2,199 |
| Catron | Hull | +43.8 | 1,956 |
| Guadalupe | Haaland | +14.4 | 1,510 |
| Hidalgo | Hull | +7.6 | 1,433 |
| Union | Hull | +46.0 | 1,271 |
| De Baca | Hull | +50.4 | 738 |
| Harding | Hull | +35.3 | 380 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Haaland (D) leads the polling average in New Mexico on 50.3%, 6.9 points ahead of Hull (R) (43.4%). The biggest shift over the past month is Hull (R), up 6.8 points.
4 polls from 4 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Research Co., published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Deb HaalandDemocratic
- Gregg HullRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: Deb Haaland (D) 92%, Gregg Hull (R) 8%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsLikely D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- ElectIndex:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Safe DLikely D28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely DSafe D21 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Safe DLikely D20 Oct
- PredictIt:Safe DLikely D20 Oct
Government
Who governs New Mexico now.
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Governor of New Mexico