United States / North Carolina / Senate Election
2026 North Carolina Senate Republican primary
North Carolina polling average: Whatley (R) 38.0% — Brown (R) 9.4% — Whatley (R) +28.6Also: Morrow (R) 2.0%Pollytic average to 26 Feb 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael WhatleyProjected winnerRepublican Party | 405,140 | 64.6% | |
| Don BrownRepublican Party | 97,891 | 15.6% | |
| Thomas JohnsonRepublican Party | 35,534 | 5.7% | |
| Michele MorrowRepublican Party | 35,065 | 5.6% | |
| Elizabeth TempleRepublican Party | 23,892 | 3.8% | |
| Richard DansieRepublican Party | 14,996 | 2.4% | |
| Margot DupreRepublican Party | 14,886 | 2.4% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake | Whatley | +53.1 | 37,010 |
| Mecklenburg | Whatley | +53.5 | 25,087 |
| Guilford | Whatley | +53.6 | 24,629 |
| Brunswick | Whatley | +56.6 | 19,273 |
| Johnston | Whatley | +56.6 | 17,175 |
| Union | Whatley | +21.3 | 16,327 |
| Gaston | Whatley | +55.5 | 16,111 |
| Davidson | Whatley | +51.9 | 15,396 |
| Catawba | Whatley | +26.4 | 15,341 |
| Forsyth | Whatley | +51.8 | 14,987 |
All 100 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabarrus | Whatley | +33.2 | 13,952 |
| Randolph | Whatley | +62.0 | 13,827 |
| Alamance | Whatley | +55.8 | 13,448 |
| Iredell | Whatley | +42.9 | 12,805 |
| Rockingham | Whatley | +37.2 | 12,121 |
| Rowan | Whatley | +54.2 | 11,802 |
| Carteret | Whatley | +55.2 | 11,589 |
| Moore | Whatley | +44.0 | 11,323 |
| New Hanover | Whatley | +63.2 | 11,106 |
| Henderson | Whatley | +42.5 | 11,017 |
| Buncombe | Whatley | +45.6 | 10,953 |
| Surry | Whatley | +41.4 | 10,757 |
| Wilkes | Whatley | +52.2 | 9,571 |
| Lincoln | Whatley | +48.8 | 9,198 |
| Onslow | Whatley | +47.8 | 8,787 |
| Wayne | Whatley | +56.0 | 8,570 |
| Rutherford | Whatley | +49.5 | 8,431 |
| Craven | Whatley | +52.7 | 8,157 |
| Cumberland | Whatley | +53.9 | 8,153 |
| Beaufort | Whatley | +37.7 | 7,518 |
| Caldwell | Whatley | +48.7 | 7,169 |
| Haywood | Whatley | +39.5 | 7,074 |
| Cleveland | Whatley | +53.6 | 6,970 |
| Nash | Whatley | +65.6 | 6,548 |
| Burke | Whatley | +53.0 | 6,529 |
| Harnett | Whatley | +48.9 | 6,317 |
| Stokes | Whatley | +40.0 | 6,125 |
| Dare | Whatley | +38.6 | 6,114 |
| Pender | Whatley | +55.2 | 6,093 |
| Sampson | Whatley | +54.9 | 5,801 |
| Macon | Whatley | +42.0 | 5,644 |
| Yadkin | Whatley | +52.1 | 5,633 |
| Pitt | Whatley | +52.1 | 5,305 |
| McDowell | Whatley | +22.2 | 5,042 |
| Davie | Whatley | +54.6 | 4,700 |
| Columbus | Whatley | +54.5 | 4,637 |
| Stanly | Whatley | +70.1 | 4,621 |
| Granville | Whatley | +40.4 | 4,613 |
| Alexander | Whatley | +44.2 | 4,456 |
| Cherokee | Whatley | +44.2 | 4,395 |
| Durham | Whatley | +53.6 | 4,313 |
| Franklin | Whatley | +28.8 | 4,243 |
| Duplin | Whatley | +43.5 | 4,204 |
| Ashe | Whatley | +50.9 | 4,178 |
| Chatham | Whatley | +66.4 | 3,631 |
| Pasquotank | Whatley | +40.0 | 3,564 |
| Mitchell | Whatley | +43.4 | 3,503 |
| Currituck | Whatley | +44.4 | 3,440 |
| Lee | Whatley | +32.3 | 3,435 |
| Transylvania | Whatley | +38.4 | 3,175 |
| Jackson | Whatley | +38.5 | 3,112 |
| Wilson | Whatley | +63.0 | 3,085 |
| Lenoir | Whatley | +63.9 | 2,814 |
| Person | Whatley | +49.6 | 2,790 |
| Bladen | Whatley | +66.2 | 2,623 |
| Orange | Whatley | +47.3 | 2,598 |
| Polk | Whatley | +32.9 | 2,529 |
| Watauga | Whatley | +56.6 | 2,363 |
| Avery | Whatley | +62.9 | 2,282 |
| Robeson | Whatley | +64.7 | 2,119 |
| Clay | Whatley | +51.7 | 2,014 |
| Scotland | Whatley | +43.8 | 1,895 |
| Richmond | Whatley | +50.3 | 1,883 |
| Yancey | Whatley | +56.4 | 1,733 |
| Montgomery | Whatley | +65.4 | 1,602 |
| Caswell | Whatley | +52.5 | 1,509 |
| Graham | Whatley | +51.1 | 1,492 |
| Pamlico | Whatley | +51.6 | 1,456 |
| Alleghany | Whatley | +55.6 | 1,454 |
| Madison | Whatley | +57.7 | 1,437 |
| Perquimans | Whatley | +51.8 | 1,389 |
| Edgecombe | Whatley | +56.1 | 1,377 |
| Hoke | Whatley | +60.6 | 1,319 |
| Vance | Whatley | +65.7 | 1,314 |
| Chowan | Whatley | +48.8 | 1,304 |
| Swain | Whatley | +41.9 | 1,265 |
| Martin | Whatley | +47.6 | 1,122 |
| Halifax | Whatley | +59.5 | 1,118 |
| Anson | Whatley | +31.8 | 998 |
| Camden | Whatley | +49.4 | 997 |
| Jones | Whatley | +51.2 | 929 |
| Gates | Whatley | +29.4 | 926 |
| Warren | Whatley | +53.2 | 697 |
| Greene | Whatley | +61.7 | 679 |
| Washington | Whatley | +12.1 | 678 |
| Bertie | Whatley | +29.8 | 661 |
| Hertford | Whatley | +41.5 | 627 |
| Hyde | Whatley | +48.0 | 527 |
| Northampton | Whatley | +48.4 | 463 |
| Tyrrell | Whatley | +38.4 | 331 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 100 counties reporting in both: 81.4 pts toward R.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | D+61.7 | R+100.0 | 161.7 toward R |
| Orange | D+50.8 | R+100.0 | 150.8 toward R |
| Mecklenburg | D+32.7 | R+100.0 | 132.7 toward R |
| Hertford | D+26.7 | R+100.0 | 126.7 toward R |
| Wake | D+25.4 | R+100.0 | 125.4 toward R |
| Buncombe | D+24.7 | R+100.0 | 124.7 toward R |
| Edgecombe | D+22.7 | R+100.0 | 122.7 toward R |
| Guilford | D+21.8 | R+100.0 | 121.8 toward R |
| Warren | D+18.9 | R+100.0 | 118.9 toward R |
| Halifax | D+17.7 | R+100.0 | 117.7 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 12.1 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −20.4 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Whatley (R) | 38.0% | 64.6% | −26.6 |
| Brown (R) | 9.4% | 15.6% | −6.2 |
| Morrow (R) | 2.0% | 5.6% | −3.6 |
| Republican | — | 2.4% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Whatley (R) leads the polling average in North Carolina on 38.0%, 28.6 points ahead of Brown (R) (9.4%). The biggest shift over the past month is Brown (R), up 3.4 points.
2 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Harper Polling (R), published 26 Feb 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Michael WhatleyRepublican
- Don BrownRepublican
- Michele MorrowRepublican
Government
Who governs North Carolina now.
Josh Stein
Governor of North Carolina