United States / North Carolina / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
North Carolina polling average: Cooper (D) 53.3% — Whatley (R) 42.5% — Cooper (D) +10.8Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roy CooperWinnerDemocratic Party | 2,467,963 | 58.7% | |
| Michael WhatleyRepublican Party | 1,643,088 | 39.1% | |
| Shannon BrayLibertarian Party | 55,726 | 1.3% | |
| Michael DublinGreen Party | 36,404 | 0.9% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wake | Cooper | +47.3 | 523,237 |
| Mecklenburg | Cooper | +53.6 | 439,955 |
| Guilford | Cooper | +42.1 | 217,239 |
| Forsyth | Cooper | +35.5 | 152,572 |
| Durham | Cooper | +75.7 | 150,482 |
| Buncombe | Cooper | +46.2 | 131,206 |
| New Hanover | Cooper | +22.4 | 102,740 |
| Union | Whatley | +2.8 | 100,583 |
| Cumberland | Cooper | +35.1 | 95,138 |
| Johnston | Cooper | +6.0 | 88,773 |
All 100 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cabarrus | Cooper | +17.4 | 86,912 |
| Brunswick | Whatley | +5.9 | 86,688 |
| Gaston | Whatley | +0.0 | 82,821 |
| Iredell | Whatley | +10.6 | 75,789 |
| Orange | Cooper | +68.0 | 72,153 |
| Alamance | Cooper | +14.7 | 67,849 |
| Pitt | Cooper | +24.5 | 62,410 |
| Davidson | Whatley | +22.1 | 60,706 |
| Catawba | Whatley | +15.1 | 60,128 |
| Henderson | Cooper | +6.0 | 56,915 |
| Rowan | Whatley | +13.4 | 50,768 |
| Onslow | Whatley | +12.7 | 50,348 |
| Randolph | Whatley | +33.9 | 47,603 |
| Harnett | Cooper | +0.6 | 44,986 |
| Moore | Whatley | +9.8 | 44,762 |
| Chatham | Cooper | +32.9 | 43,043 |
| Craven | Whatley | +3.7 | 41,878 |
| Nash | Cooper | +15.9 | 40,831 |
| Wayne | Cooper | +2.8 | 38,570 |
| Lincoln | Whatley | +26.1 | 38,288 |
| Carteret | Whatley | +28.0 | 35,142 |
| Cleveland | Whatley | +13.4 | 34,539 |
| Rockingham | Whatley | +14.5 | 34,128 |
| Franklin | Cooper | +6.9 | 33,160 |
| Burke | Whatley | +18.0 | 30,118 |
| Robeson | Whatley | +0.6 | 29,501 |
| Wilson | Cooper | +19.1 | 29,087 |
| Haywood | Cooper | +0.5 | 28,262 |
| Caldwell | Whatley | +31.0 | 27,293 |
| Pender | Whatley | +12.3 | 25,632 |
| Granville | Cooper | +10.0 | 24,462 |
| Stanly | Whatley | +31.6 | 24,400 |
| Surry | Whatley | +26.7 | 24,115 |
| Watauga | Cooper | +27.7 | 23,805 |
| Wilkes | Whatley | +38.0 | 23,556 |
| Rutherford | Whatley | +27.5 | 22,911 |
| Lee | Cooper | +10.1 | 21,217 |
| Beaufort | Whatley | +16.0 | 19,864 |
| Lenoir | Cooper | +8.9 | 19,544 |
| Dare | Whatley | +1.1 | 19,122 |
| Davie | Whatley | +25.2 | 18,463 |
| Sampson | Whatley | +6.3 | 18,424 |
| Edgecombe | Cooper | +39.4 | 17,993 |
| Halifax | Cooper | +32.6 | 17,683 |
| Stokes | Whatley | +36.1 | 17,467 |
| Columbus | Whatley | +13.5 | 16,956 |
| McDowell | Whatley | +26.3 | 16,363 |
| Transylvania | Cooper | +10.0 | 16,215 |
| Macon | Whatley | +16.8 | 16,213 |
| Jackson | Cooper | +17.4 | 16,066 |
| Duplin | Whatley | +11.1 | 16,034 |
| Hoke | Cooper | +33.1 | 15,939 |
| Person | Whatley | +4.6 | 15,913 |
| Pasquotank | Cooper | +12.9 | 14,901 |
| Vance | Cooper | +30.3 | 14,675 |
| Yadkin | Whatley | +40.6 | 13,543 |
| Alexander | Whatley | +42.2 | 13,475 |
| Richmond | Cooper | +1.7 | 13,421 |
| Currituck | Whatley | +32.7 | 12,697 |
| Cherokee | Whatley | +42.8 | 12,311 |
| Bladen | Whatley | +4.3 | 11,968 |
| Ashe | Whatley | +21.1 | 11,772 |
| Madison | Cooper | +3.6 | 10,477 |
| Scotland | Cooper | +12.5 | 10,386 |
| Polk | Whatley | +5.3 | 10,088 |
| Martin | Cooper | +7.0 | 9,150 |
| Montgomery | Whatley | +14.3 | 9,003 |
| Caswell | Whatley | +5.7 | 8,706 |
| Yancey | Whatley | +6.4 | 8,330 |
| Warren | Cooper | +31.7 | 8,065 |
| Anson | Cooper | +11.3 | 8,013 |
| Hertford | Cooper | +40.2 | 7,075 |
| Northampton | Cooper | +27.4 | 6,986 |
| Avery | Whatley | +33.7 | 6,685 |
| Bertie | Cooper | +28.0 | 6,667 |
| Mitchell | Whatley | +32.7 | 6,256 |
| Greene | Cooper | +0.4 | 6,245 |
| Pamlico | Whatley | +16.7 | 6,081 |
| Chowan | Whatley | +11.2 | 5,928 |
| Clay | Whatley | +33.9 | 5,740 |
| Perquimans | Whatley | +26.6 | 5,594 |
| Swain | Whatley | +0.8 | 5,121 |
| Alleghany | Whatley | +29.2 | 4,695 |
| Washington | Cooper | +21.4 | 4,529 |
| Camden | Whatley | +33.4 | 4,517 |
| Gates | Whatley | +4.0 | 4,177 |
| Jones | Whatley | +11.8 | 3,925 |
| Graham | Whatley | +44.0 | 3,706 |
| Hyde | Whatley | +6.1 | 1,958 |
| Tyrrell | Whatley | +5.7 | 1,355 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 100 counties reporting in both: 21.0 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey | R+34.3 | R+6.4 | 28.0 toward D |
| Lee | R+17.4 | D+10.1 | 27.5 toward D |
| Johnston | R+21.5 | D+6.0 | 27.5 toward D |
| Hoke | D+5.9 | D+33.1 | 27.2 toward D |
| Robeson | R+27.6 | R+0.6 | 27.0 toward D |
| Madison | R+23.4 | D+3.6 | 27.0 toward D |
| Jackson | R+9.3 | D+17.4 | 26.8 toward D |
| Surry | R+53.2 | R+26.7 | 26.5 toward D |
| Harnett | R+25.0 | D+0.6 | 25.6 toward D |
| Haywood | R+25.0 | D+0.5 | 25.5 toward D |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 4.8 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −9.5 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper (D) | 52.7% | 58.7% | −6.0 |
| Whatley (R) | 42.6% | 39.1% | +3.5 |
| Bray (L) | — | 1.3% | — |
| Dublin (G) | — | 0.9% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Cooper (D) leads the polling average in North Carolina on 53.3%, 10.8 points ahead of Whatley (R) (42.5%). The biggest shift over the past month is Whatley (R), up 3.9 points.
13 polls from 12 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from AtlasIntel, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Roy CooperDemocratic
- Michael WhatleyRepublican
- Shannon BrayLibertarian
- Michael DublinGreen
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Lean DForecast
Chance of winning: Roy Cooper (D) 76%, Michael Whatley (R) 24%
- Cook Political ReportLikely D
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely D
- Inside ElectionsLean D
- Split TicketSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- ElectIndex:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- Fox News:Lean DLikely D28 Oct
- Split Ticket:Likely DSafe D28 Oct
- VoteHub:Likely DSafe D28 Oct
- Cook Political Report:Lean DLikely D20 Oct
- Model:Likely DLean D4 Oct
Government
Who governs North Carolina now.
Josh Stein
Governor of North Carolina