United States / Oklahoma / Gubernatorial Election

2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election

Name: 2026 Oklahoma gubernatorial election opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

Oklahoma polling average: Mazzei (R) 47.6% — Munson (D) 43.5% — Mazzei (R) +4.1Pollytic average to 20 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Election date

Held on 3 Nov 2026

Results

100% reporting · 3 Nov 2026

Votes and vote share by candidate, Oklahoma Governor
Candidate	Votes	Share
Mike MazzeiWinnerRepublican Party	581,706	51.9%
Cyndi MunsonDemocratic Party	514,342	45.9%
Robert E Brooks SrIndependent	11,649	1.0%
Jerry GriffinIndependent	7,433	0.7%
Orlando Lynn BushIndependent	5,009	0.5%

County map of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Governor: each county shaded by its leading candidate (Cyndi Munson, Mike Mazzei). County figures are in the table. — Cyndi MunsonMike MazzeiCounty leader, shaded by party.

The 10 counties with the most votes, Oklahoma Governor
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Oklahoma	Munson	+24.8	229,309
Tulsa	Munson	+10.2	191,755
Cleveland	Munson	+12.3	90,125
Canadian	Mazzei	+6.5	54,380
Rogers	Mazzei	+26.1	32,182
Wagoner	Mazzei	+22.7	26,740
Comanche	Mazzei	+1.3	24,037
Creek	Mazzei	+30.0	20,681
Payne	Munson	+5.7	20,657
Pottawatomie	Mazzei	+20.5	20,244

All 77 counties

The other 67 counties, Oklahoma Governor
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Logan	Mazzei	+24.7	17,865
Grady	Mazzei	+32.8	16,900
Muskogee	Mazzei	+8.3	16,297
Washington	Mazzei	+26.4	16,091
McClain	Mazzei	+34.1	14,876
Garfield	Mazzei	+26.2	14,815
Osage	Mazzei	+13.2	14,292
Cherokee	Mazzei	+1.7	12,540
Carter	Mazzei	+32.9	12,144
Stephens	Mazzei	+42.4	12,056
Kay	Mazzei	+22.3	11,803
Pittsburg	Mazzei	+35.2	11,762
Delaware	Mazzei	+40.7	11,749
Bryan	Mazzei	+35.8	11,529
Mayes	Mazzei	+26.6	11,477
Le Flore	Mazzei	+45.3	11,390
Pontotoc	Mazzei	+15.5	10,570
Lincoln	Mazzei	+37.1	10,354
Okmulgee	Mazzei	+15.7	9,593
Sequoyah	Mazzei	+38.1	9,279
Custer	Mazzei	+21.9	7,200
Garvin	Mazzei	+40.6	6,988
Ottawa	Mazzei	+25.1	6,943
McCurtain	Mazzei	+50.6	6,756
Caddo	Mazzei	+13.3	6,449
McIntosh	Mazzei	+31.6	5,735
Seminole	Mazzei	+24.4	5,337
Jackson	Mazzei	+39.1	5,022
Adair	Mazzei	+35.0	4,807
Beckham	Mazzei	+44.2	4,780
Woodward	Mazzei	+42.8	4,739
Pawnee	Mazzei	+28.2	4,554
Marshall	Mazzei	+44.7	4,508
Kingfisher	Mazzei	+41.2	4,464
Craig	Mazzei	+31.7	3,905
Murray	Mazzei	+35.2	3,835
Texas	Mazzei	+34.6	3,641
Noble	Mazzei	+24.8	3,577
Choctaw	Mazzei	+49.0	3,533
Atoka	Mazzei	+53.4	3,310
Nowata	Mazzei	+40.2	3,074
Pushmataha	Mazzei	+54.2	3,045
Washita	Mazzei	+45.1	2,974
Haskell	Mazzei	+44.7	2,940
Hughes	Mazzei	+36.7	2,904
Okfuskee	Mazzei	+28.3	2,612
Johnston	Mazzei	+46.9	2,597
Blaine	Mazzei	+30.0	2,580
Woods	Mazzei	+30.5	2,505
Love	Mazzei	+41.7	2,493
Latimer	Mazzei	+38.7	2,465
Major	Mazzei	+57.3	2,360
Kiowa	Mazzei	+30.4	2,238
Tillman	Mazzei	+34.9	1,606
Alfalfa	Mazzei	+43.7	1,576
Cotton	Mazzei	+42.3	1,534
Coal	Mazzei	+52.8	1,497
Beaver	Mazzei	+59.4	1,435
Dewey	Mazzei	+53.8	1,424
Grant	Mazzei	+39.6	1,413
Jefferson	Mazzei	+48.5	1,405
Greer	Mazzei	+38.4	1,304
Ellis	Mazzei	+50.1	1,259
Roger Mills	Mazzei	+54.6	1,100
Harper	Mazzei	+46.8	1,033
Cimarron	Mazzei	+70.7	641
Harmon	Mazzei	+35.1	550

How the count progressed

Mike MazzeiCyndi MunsonRobert E Brooks SrVotes counted, times in UTC.

Updated 6 Nov, 12:48 UTC

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Nov 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error: 3.4 pts
Error on the winner’s margin: −1.9 pts

Final polling average, result and error per party or candidate, in percentage points
Candidate	Average	Result	Error
Mazzei (R)	47.6%	51.9%	−4.3
Munson (D)	43.5%	45.9%	−2.4
Brooks Sr (I)	—	1.0%	—
Griffin (I)	—	0.7%	—
Bush (I)	—	0.5%	—

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Polling trend

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
Workbench Strategy (D)	20 Oct 2026	8 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026	600	±4	—	Mazzei (R) 49.0% new Munson (D) 45.0% new	Source for Workbench Strategy (D) poll (opens in a new tab)
Cross Timbers Poll	13 Oct 2026	7 Oct 2026 – 12 Oct 2026	91	±15	—	Mazzei (R) 39.0% −7.0 percentage points Munson (D) 36.0% ±0.0 percentage points	Source for Cross Timbers Poll poll (opens in a new tab)
Cross Timbers Poll	30 Sept 2026	27 Sept 2026 – 30 Sept 2026	86	±12	—	Mazzei (R) 46.0% new Munson (D) 36.0% new	Source for Cross Timbers Poll poll (opens in a new tab)

Workbench Strategy (D)
20 Oct 2026 · n=600 · MoE ±4 · Method n/a
- Mazzei (R)49.0%
- Munson (D)45.0%
View original source
Cross Timbers Poll
13 Oct 2026 · n=91 · MoE ±15 · Method n/a
- Mazzei (R)39.0%
- Munson (D)36.0%
View original source
Cross Timbers Poll
30 Sept 2026 · n=86 · MoE ±12 · Method n/a
- Mazzei (R)46.0%
- Munson (D)36.0%
View original source

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Mazzei (R) leads the polling average in Oklahoma on 47.6%, 4.1 points ahead of Munson (D) (43.5%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.

3 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Workbench Strategy (D), published 20 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Candidates

Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.

Mike MazzeiRepublican
Cyndi MunsonDemocratic
Robert E Brooks Sr
Jerry Griffin
Orlando Lynn Bush

Forecast

All 2026 races

How likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.

Safe RForecast

Chance of winning: Mike Mazzei (R) 92%, Cyndi Munson (D) 8%

Cook Political ReportLikely R
Sabato's Crystal BallLikely R
Inside ElectionsLikely R

How the forecast has moved

Model

Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.

Show all 6 forecasters

VoteHub

ElectIndex

CM Election Predictions

America First Insight

Kalshi

Polymarket

Rating changes

Sabato's Crystal Ball:Safe RLikely R28 Oct
Cook Political Report:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
Kalshi:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
Polymarket:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
VoteHub:Safe RLikely R20 Oct

Government

Who governs Oklahoma now.

Kevin Stitt

Governor of Oklahoma

Candidate

Votes

Mike MazzeiWinnerRepublican Party

581,706

51.9%

Cyndi MunsonDemocratic Party

514,342

45.9%

Robert E Brooks SrIndependent

11,649

1.0%

Jerry GriffinIndependent

7,433

0.7%

Orlando Lynn BushIndependent

5,009

0.5%

County

Leader

Lead

Votes

Oklahoma

Munson

+24.8

229,309

Tulsa

Munson

+10.2

191,755

Cleveland

Munson

+12.3

90,125

Canadian

Mazzei

+6.5

54,380

Rogers

Mazzei

+26.1

32,182

Wagoner

Mazzei

+22.7

26,740

Comanche

Mazzei

+1.3

24,037

Creek

Mazzei

+30.0

20,681

Payne

Munson

+5.7

20,657

Pottawatomie

Mazzei

+20.5

20,244

Logan

Mazzei

+24.7

17,865

Grady

Mazzei

+32.8

16,900

Muskogee

Mazzei

+8.3

16,297

Washington

Mazzei

+26.4

16,091

McClain

Mazzei

+34.1

14,876

Garfield

Mazzei

+26.2

14,815

Osage

Mazzei

+13.2

14,292

Cherokee

Mazzei

+1.7

12,540

Carter

Mazzei

+32.9

12,144

Stephens

Mazzei

+42.4

12,056

Kay

Mazzei

+22.3

11,803

Pittsburg

Mazzei

+35.2

11,762

Delaware

Mazzei

+40.7

11,749

Bryan

Mazzei

+35.8

11,529

Mayes

Mazzei

+26.6

11,477

Le Flore

Mazzei

+45.3

11,390

Pontotoc

Mazzei

+15.5

10,570

Lincoln

Mazzei

+37.1

10,354

Okmulgee

Mazzei

+15.7

9,593

Sequoyah

Mazzei

+38.1

9,279

Custer

Mazzei

+21.9

7,200

Garvin

Mazzei

+40.6

6,988

Ottawa

Mazzei

+25.1

6,943

McCurtain

Mazzei

+50.6

6,756

Caddo

Mazzei

+13.3

6,449

McIntosh

Mazzei

+31.6

5,735

Seminole

Mazzei

+24.4

5,337

Jackson

Mazzei

+39.1

5,022

Adair

Mazzei

+35.0

4,807

Beckham

Mazzei

+44.2

4,780

Woodward

Mazzei

+42.8

4,739

Pawnee

Mazzei

+28.2

4,554

Marshall

Mazzei

+44.7

4,508

Kingfisher

Mazzei

+41.2

4,464

Craig

Mazzei

+31.7

3,905

Murray

Mazzei

+35.2

3,835

Texas

Mazzei

+34.6

3,641

Noble

Mazzei

+24.8

3,577

Choctaw

Mazzei

+49.0

3,533

Atoka

Mazzei

+53.4

3,310

Nowata

Mazzei

+40.2

3,074

Pushmataha

Mazzei

+54.2

3,045

Washita

Mazzei

+45.1

2,974

Haskell

Mazzei

+44.7

2,940

Hughes

Mazzei

+36.7

2,904

Okfuskee

Mazzei

+28.3

2,612

Johnston

Mazzei

+46.9

2,597

Blaine

Mazzei

+30.0

2,580

Woods

Mazzei

+30.5

2,505

Love

Mazzei

+41.7

2,493

Latimer

Mazzei

+38.7

2,465

Major

Mazzei

+57.3

2,360

Kiowa

Mazzei

+30.4

2,238

Tillman

Mazzei

+34.9

1,606

Alfalfa

Mazzei

+43.7

1,576

Cotton

Mazzei

+42.3

1,534

Coal

Mazzei

+52.8

1,497

Beaver

Mazzei

+59.4

1,435

Dewey

Mazzei

+53.8

1,424

Grant

Mazzei

+39.6

1,413

Jefferson

Mazzei

+48.5

1,405

Greer

Mazzei

+38.4

1,304

Ellis

Mazzei

+50.1

1,259

Roger Mills

Mazzei

+54.6

1,100

Harper

Mazzei

+46.8

1,033

Cimarron

Mazzei

+70.7

641

Harmon

Mazzei

+35.1

550

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Nov 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error

3.4 pts

Error on the winner’s margin

−1.9 pts

Candidate

Average

Result

Error

Mazzei (R)

47.6%

51.9%

−4.3

Munson (D)

43.5%

45.9%

−2.4

Brooks Sr (I)

—

1.0%

—

Griffin (I)

—

0.7%

—

Bush (I)

—

0.5%

—

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Institute

Date

Fieldwork

Sample

MoE

Method

Voting intention

Workbench Strategy (D)

20 Oct 2026

8 Oct 2026 – 13 Oct 2026

600

±4

—

Mazzei (R) 49.0% new
Munson (D) 45.0% new

Source

Cross Timbers Poll

13 Oct 2026

7 Oct 2026 – 12 Oct 2026

±15

—

Mazzei (R) 39.0% −7.0 percentage points
Munson (D) 36.0% ±0.0 percentage points

Source

Cross Timbers Poll

30 Sept 2026

27 Sept 2026 – 30 Sept 2026

±12

—

Mazzei (R) 46.0% new
Munson (D) 36.0% new

Source

What the polls say

Mazzei (R) leads the polling average in Oklahoma on 47.6%, 4.1 points ahead of Munson (D) (43.5%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.