United States / South Dakota / Gubernatorial Election

2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election

Name: 2026 South Dakota gubernatorial election opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

South Dakota polling average: Rhoden (R) 54.0% — Ahlers (D) 36.5% — Rhoden (R) +17.5Pollytic average to 19 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Election date

Held on 3 Nov 2026

Results

100% reporting · 3 Nov 2026

Votes and vote share by candidate, South Dakota Governor
Candidate	Vote share bar	Votes	Share
Larry RhodenWinnerRepublican Party		193,334	63.5%
Dan AhlersDemocratic Party		111,157	36.5%

County map of South Dakota, South Dakota Governor: each county shaded by its leading candidate (Larry Rhoden, Dan Ahlers). County figures are in the table. — Larry RhodenDan AhlersCounty leader, shaded by party.

The 10 counties with the most votes, South Dakota Governor
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Minnehaha	Rhoden	+5.2	66,466
Pennington	Rhoden	+25.5	37,228
Lincoln	Rhoden	+21.8	26,310
Brown	Rhoden	+27.7	12,048
Brookings	Rhoden	+18.6	11,506
Lawrence	Rhoden	+32.2	10,583
Meade	Rhoden	+50.3	10,028
Codington	Rhoden	+36.9	9,896
Yankton	Rhoden	+23.0	7,705
Hughes	Rhoden	+37.6	6,519

All 66 counties

The other 56 counties, South Dakota Governor
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Davison	Rhoden	+36.3	6,067
Union	Rhoden	+34.0	5,814
Beadle	Rhoden	+40.8	4,824
Custer	Rhoden	+47.3	4,644
Lake	Rhoden	+31.4	4,446
Clay	Ahlers	+10.0	4,088
Butte	Rhoden	+59.8	3,436
Fall River	Rhoden	+48.4	3,261
Turner	Rhoden	+48.8	3,251
Roberts	Rhoden	+18.2	2,972
Grant	Rhoden	+45.4	2,901
Charles Mix	Rhoden	+42.5	2,685
Hutchinson	Rhoden	+59.6	2,557
Moody	Rhoden	+20.9	2,474
Day	Rhoden	+29.1	2,272
Spink	Rhoden	+43.7	2,271
Hamlin	Rhoden	+57.0	2,237
Oglala Lakota	Ahlers	+71.4	2,217
McCook	Rhoden	+43.8	2,173
Bon Homme	Rhoden	+50.0	2,146
Kingsbury	Rhoden	+44.9	2,057
Tripp	Rhoden	+65.1	1,938
Brule	Rhoden	+42.8	1,774
Deuel	Rhoden	+48.5	1,688
Marshall	Rhoden	+27.5	1,657
Walworth	Rhoden	+61.3	1,648
Todd	Ahlers	+51.4	1,643
Gregory	Rhoden	+58.2	1,576
Clark	Rhoden	+60.6	1,534
Edmunds	Rhoden	+58.8	1,440
Stanley	Rhoden	+53.2	1,332
Dewey	Ahlers	+7.7	1,285
Hand	Rhoden	+65.9	1,273
Perkins	Rhoden	+73.3	1,272
Douglas	Rhoden	+77.8	1,259
Hanson	Rhoden	+57.8	1,134
Lyman	Rhoden	+39.0	1,124
McPherson	Rhoden	+72.5	998
Aurora	Rhoden	+52.9	976
Potter	Rhoden	+69.6	928
Miner	Rhoden	+46.8	902
Haakon	Rhoden	+79.7	837
Bennett	Rhoden	+22.5	834
Sanborn	Rhoden	+44.9	831
Faulk	Rhoden	+68.7	824
Jackson	Rhoden	+39.4	775
Corson	Rhoden	+12.7	726
Sully	Rhoden	+67.7	712
Jerauld	Rhoden	+53.1	699
Harding	Rhoden	+90.0	663
Mellette	Rhoden	+31.7	612
Campbell	Rhoden	+73.4	601
Ziebach	Rhoden	+11.6	577
Hyde	Rhoden	+65.9	504
Jones	Rhoden	+78.4	454
Buffalo	Ahlers	+27.2	379

How the count progressed

Larry RhodenDan AhlersVotes counted, times in UTC.

Updated 6 Nov, 12:58 UTC

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Nov 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error: 4.8 pts
Error on the winner’s margin: −9.3 pts

Final polling average, result and error per party or candidate, in percentage points
Candidate	Average	Result	Error
Rhoden (R)	54.0%	63.4%	−9.4
Ahlers (D)	36.5%	36.6%	−0.1

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Polling trend

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Select to compare	Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
	Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy	19 Oct 2026	12 Oct 2026 – 14 Oct 2026	500	±4.5	—	Rhoden (R) 56.0% new Ahlers (D) 36.0% new	Source for Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy poll (opens in a new tab)
	Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)	9 Oct 2026	6 Oct 2026 – 8 Oct 2026	400	±4.9	—	Rhoden (R) 48.0% new Ahlers (D) 38.0% new	Source for Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) poll (opens in a new tab)

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
19 Oct 2026 · n=500 · MoE ±4.5 · Method n/a
- Rhoden (R)56.0%
- Ahlers (D)36.0%
View original source
Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)
9 Oct 2026 · n=400 · MoE ±4.9 · Method n/a
- Rhoden (R)48.0%
- Ahlers (D)38.0%
View original source

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Rhoden (R) leads the polling average in South Dakota on 54.0%, 17.5 points ahead of Ahlers (D) (36.5%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.

2 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, published 19 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Candidates

Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.

Larry RhodenRepublican
Dan AhlersDemocratic

Forecast

All 2026 races

How likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.

Safe RForecast

Chance of winning: Larry Rhoden (R) 96%, Dan Ahlers (D) 4%

Cook Political ReportSafe R
Sabato's Crystal BallSafe R
Inside ElectionsSafe R

How the forecast has moved

Model

Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.

Show all 6 forecasters

VoteHub

ElectIndex

CM Election Predictions

America First Insight

Kalshi

Polymarket

Government

Who governs South Dakota now.

Larry Rhoden

Governor of South Dakota

Candidate

Votes

Larry RhodenWinnerRepublican Party

193,334

63.5%

Dan AhlersDemocratic Party

111,157

36.5%

County

Leader

Lead

Votes

Minnehaha

Rhoden

+5.2

66,466

Pennington

Rhoden

+25.5

37,228

Lincoln

Rhoden

+21.8

26,310

Brown

Rhoden

+27.7

12,048

Brookings

Rhoden

+18.6

11,506

Lawrence

Rhoden

+32.2

10,583

Meade

Rhoden

+50.3

10,028

Codington

Rhoden

+36.9

9,896

Yankton

Rhoden

+23.0

7,705

Hughes

Rhoden

+37.6

6,519

Davison

Rhoden

+36.3

6,067

Union

Rhoden

+34.0

5,814

Beadle

Rhoden

+40.8

4,824

Custer

Rhoden

+47.3

4,644

Lake

Rhoden

+31.4

4,446

Clay

Ahlers

+10.0

4,088

Butte

Rhoden

+59.8

3,436

Fall River

Rhoden

+48.4

3,261

Turner

Rhoden

+48.8

3,251

Roberts

Rhoden

+18.2

2,972

Grant

Rhoden

+45.4

2,901

Charles Mix

Rhoden

+42.5

2,685

Hutchinson

Rhoden

+59.6

2,557

Moody

Rhoden

+20.9

2,474

Day

Rhoden

+29.1

2,272

Spink

Rhoden

+43.7

2,271

Hamlin

Rhoden

+57.0

2,237

Oglala Lakota

Ahlers

+71.4

2,217

McCook

Rhoden

+43.8

2,173

Bon Homme

Rhoden

+50.0

2,146

Kingsbury

Rhoden

+44.9

2,057

Tripp

Rhoden

+65.1

1,938

Brule

Rhoden

+42.8

1,774

Deuel

Rhoden

+48.5

1,688

Marshall

Rhoden

+27.5

1,657

Walworth

Rhoden

+61.3

1,648

Todd

Ahlers

+51.4

1,643

Gregory

Rhoden

+58.2

1,576

Clark

Rhoden

+60.6

1,534

Edmunds

Rhoden

+58.8

1,440

Stanley

Rhoden

+53.2

1,332

Dewey

Ahlers

+7.7

1,285

Hand

Rhoden

+65.9

1,273

Perkins

Rhoden

+73.3

1,272

Douglas

Rhoden

+77.8

1,259

Hanson

Rhoden

+57.8

1,134

Lyman

Rhoden

+39.0

1,124

McPherson

Rhoden

+72.5

998

Aurora

Rhoden

+52.9

976

Potter

Rhoden

+69.6

928

Miner

Rhoden

+46.8

902

Haakon

Rhoden

+79.7

837

Bennett

Rhoden

+22.5

834

Sanborn

Rhoden

+44.9

831

Faulk

Rhoden

+68.7

824

Jackson

Rhoden

+39.4

775

Corson

Rhoden

+12.7

726

Sully

Rhoden

+67.7

712

Jerauld

Rhoden

+53.1

699

Harding

Rhoden

+90.0

663

Mellette

Rhoden

+31.7

612

Campbell

Rhoden

+73.4

601

Ziebach

Rhoden

+11.6

577

Hyde

Rhoden

+65.9

504

Jones

Rhoden

+78.4

454

Buffalo

Ahlers

+27.2

379

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Nov 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error

4.8 pts

Error on the winner’s margin

−9.3 pts

Candidate

Average

Result

Error

Rhoden (R)

54.0%

63.4%

−9.4

Ahlers (D)

36.5%

36.6%

−0.1

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Institute

Date

Fieldwork

Sample

MoE

Method

Voting intention

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy

19 Oct 2026

12 Oct 2026 – 14 Oct 2026

500

±4.5

—

Rhoden (R) 56.0% new
Ahlers (D) 36.0% new

Source

Concord Public Opinion Partners (D)

9 Oct 2026

6 Oct 2026 – 8 Oct 2026

400

±4.9

—

Rhoden (R) 48.0% new
Ahlers (D) 38.0% new

Source

What the polls say

Rhoden (R) leads the polling average in South Dakota on 54.0%, 17.5 points ahead of Ahlers (D) (36.5%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.