United States / Texas / Gubernatorial Election

2026 Texas gubernatorial Democratic primary

Name: 2026 Texas gubernatorial Democratic primary opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

Texas polling average: Hinojosa (D) 56.9% — Bell (D) 14.1% — Hinojosa (D) +42.8Also: Cole (D) 3.5% · Villescaz (D) 2.4% · White (D) 1.0%Pollytic average to 27 Feb 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Election date

Held on 3 Mar 2026

Results

100% reporting · 3 Mar 2026

Votes and vote share by candidate, Texas Governor Democratic Primary
Candidate	Votes	Share
Gina HinojosaProjected winnerDemocratic Party	1,289,576	58.5%
Chris BellDemocratic Party	216,787	9.8%
Angela VillescazDemocratic Party	150,752	6.8%
Patricia AbregoDemocratic Party	128,632	5.8%
Andrew WhiteDemocratic Party	117,392	5.3%
Bobby ColeDemocratic Party	112,675	5.1%
Jose Navarro BalbuenaDemocratic Party	65,826	3.0%
Carlton HartDemocratic Party	63,278	2.9%
Zach VanceDemocratic Party	58,753	2.7%

County map of Texas, Texas Governor Democratic Primary: each county shaded by its leading candidate (Gina Hinojosa, Angela Villescaz, Patricia Abrego). County figures are in the table. — Gina HinojosaAngela VillescazPatricia AbregoCounty leader, shaded by party.

The 10 counties with the most votes, Texas Governor Democratic Primary
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Harris	Hinojosa	+33.3	351,218
Dallas	Hinojosa	+44.2	266,265
Travis	Hinojosa	+73.8	205,673
Bexar	Hinojosa	+55.4	181,038
Tarrant	Hinojosa	+44.2	178,455
Collin	Hinojosa	+53.8	89,507
Denton	Hinojosa	+46.3	79,443
Fort Bend	Hinojosa	+30.3	78,890
El Paso	Hinojosa	+32.5	64,877
Williamson	Hinojosa	+66.9	62,334

All 254 counties

The other 244 counties, Texas Governor Democratic Primary
County	Leader	Lead	Votes
Hidalgo	Hinojosa	+62.7	58,146
Hays	Hinojosa	+66.1	32,779
Cameron	Hinojosa	+66.8	32,054
Montgomery	Hinojosa	+40.4	29,641
Brazoria	Hinojosa	+26.2	28,464
Bell	Hinojosa	+31.0	23,644
Galveston	Hinojosa	+40.4	23,374
Nueces	Hinojosa	+56.6	23,013
Webb	Hinojosa	+28.3	22,561
Jefferson	Hinojosa	+24.4	17,324
Ellis	Hinojosa	+35.1	16,566
Lubbock	Hinojosa	+41.6	14,510
McLennan	Hinojosa	+40.2	14,491
Smith	Hinojosa	+31.0	13,822
Brazos	Hinojosa	+51.6	13,308
Guadalupe	Hinojosa	+52.0	13,051
Comal	Hinojosa	+59.1	11,509
Kaufman	Hinojosa	+34.7	11,468
Bastrop	Hinojosa	+58.8	8,426
Johnson	Hinojosa	+47.8	7,927
Rockwall	Hinojosa	+45.4	7,569
Starr	Hinojosa	+38.9	5,871
Gregg	Hinojosa	+20.0	5,850
Parker	Hinojosa	+56.9	5,555
Maverick	Hinojosa	+39.9	5,469
Grayson	Hinojosa	+37.8	5,310
Taylor	Hinojosa	+39.4	4,790
Randall	Hinojosa	+47.7	4,636
Tom Green	Hinojosa	+57.8	4,370
Wichita	Hinojosa	+38.3	3,943
Hunt	Hinojosa	+36.5	3,897
Victoria	Hinojosa	+53.7	3,792
Waller	Hinojosa	+27.7	3,768
Midland	Hinojosa	+59.3	3,725
Bowie	Hinojosa	+17.9	3,662
San Patricio	Hinojosa	+59.6	3,504
Jim Wells	Hinojosa	+38.0	3,496
Potter	Hinojosa	+42.5	3,448
Caldwell	Hinojosa	+58.0	3,394
Ector	Hinojosa	+44.2	3,370
Angelina	Hinojosa	+43.3	3,310
Nacogdoches	Hinojosa	+39.1	3,299
Harrison	Hinojosa	+14.1	3,215
Henderson	Hinojosa	+31.7	3,067
Walker	Hinojosa	+44.8	2,890
Coryell	Hinojosa	+33.3	2,878
Val Verde	Hinojosa	+49.5	2,802
Medina	Hinojosa	+48.9	2,745
Burnet	Hinojosa	+64.5	2,737
Liberty	Hinojosa	+32.1	2,727
Wilson	Hinojosa	+53.1	2,479
Zapata	Hinojosa	+40.2	2,476
Kendall	Hinojosa	+54.4	2,427
Kerr	Hinojosa	+60.6	2,420
Orange	Hinojosa	+24.5	2,213
Wise	Hinojosa	+44.2	2,112
Atascosa	Hinojosa	+45.1	2,079
Uvalde	Hinojosa	+48.8	2,076
Hood	Hinojosa	+48.7	2,057
Navarro	Hinojosa	+34.7	1,996
Willacy	Hinojosa	+62.4	1,992
Kleberg	Hinojosa	+53.2	1,954
Rusk	Hinojosa	+27.5	1,809
Dimmit	Hinojosa	+53.1	1,764
Cherokee	Hinojosa	+28.5	1,673
Chambers	Hinojosa	+40.5	1,607
Washington	Hinojosa	+36.6	1,594
Zavala	Hinojosa	+49.0	1,481
Wharton	Hinojosa	+32.1	1,475
Duval	Hinojosa	+39.2	1,474
Matagorda	Hinojosa	+32.7	1,473
Lamar	Hinojosa	+26.4	1,456
Polk	Hinojosa	+35.1	1,438
Wood	Hinojosa	+35.5	1,436
Van Zandt	Hinojosa	+32.0	1,380
Anderson	Hinojosa	+34.4	1,355
Frio	Hinojosa	+50.6	1,341
Gillespie	Hinojosa	+62.4	1,298
Hardin	Hinojosa	+33.9	1,241
Cooke	Hinojosa	+48.0	1,219
Hopkins	Hinojosa	+36.0	1,192
Presidio	Hinojosa	+34.5	1,186
Upshur	Hinojosa	+15.0	1,163
Hill	Hinojosa	+41.0	1,122
Reeves	Hinojosa	+29.6	1,119
Bee	Hinojosa	+59.7	1,109
Grimes	Hinojosa	+39.2	1,103
Aransas	Hinojosa	+56.5	1,095
Erath	Hinojosa	+56.0	1,065
Austin	Hinojosa	+30.1	1,033
Titus	Hinojosa	+37.8	1,020
Cass	Hinojosa	+20.1	1,010
Llano	Hinojosa	+52.1	1,003
Jasper	Hinojosa	+10.3	997
Milam	Hinojosa	+44.5	989
Brooks	Hinojosa	+46.1	980
Bandera	Hinojosa	+52.7	965
Brewster	Hinojosa	+73.1	946
Limestone	Hinojosa	+42.4	945
Fayette	Hinojosa	+43.7	924
Jim Hogg	Hinojosa	+42.5	911
Blanco	Hinojosa	+67.0	879
La Salle	Hinojosa	+43.9	871
Lampasas	Hinojosa	+54.1	865
Fannin	Hinojosa	+44.0	862
Colorado	Hinojosa	+31.2	824
Robertson	Hinojosa	+24.7	818
Panola	Hinojosa	+32.5	806
Houston	Hinojosa	+22.7	797
San Jacinto	Hinojosa	+19.2	776
Brown	Hinojosa	+48.4	767
Palo Pinto	Hinojosa	+42.2	752
Lee	Hinojosa	+46.4	735
Gonzales	Hinojosa	+58.4	731
Calhoun	Hinojosa	+51.5	688
Freestone	Hinojosa	+28.3	686
Shelby	Hinojosa	+16.3	675
Hale	Hinojosa	+40.8	667
Burleson	Hinojosa	+32.6	662
Falls	Hinojosa	+11.7	658
Howard	Hinojosa	+52.0	591
Morris	Hinojosa	+28.6	580
Pecos	Hinojosa	+48.6	556
Bosque	Hinojosa	+50.1	549
Camp	Hinojosa	+25.7	548
DeWitt	Hinojosa	+45.3	530
Marion	Hinojosa	+23.8	478
Lavaca	Hinojosa	+32.5	468
Trinity	Hinojosa	+15.7	459
Hockley	Hinojosa	+34.2	444
Karnes	Hinojosa	+46.5	439
San Augustine	Hinojosa	+6.6	423
Red River	Hinojosa	+16.5	417
Montague	Hinojosa	+41.9	403
Tyler	Hinojosa	+23.3	403
Leon	Hinojosa	+40.4	389
Madison	Hinojosa	+38.3	387
Refugio	Hinojosa	+43.9	362
Jones	Hinojosa	+30.4	345
Rains	Hinojosa	+39.8	332
Jackson	Hinojosa	+43.8	329
Young	Hinojosa	+41.1	314
Comanche	Hinojosa	+47.9	311
Newton	Hinojosa	+4.2	307
Moore	Hinojosa	+45.7	304
Nolan	Hinojosa	+42.3	300
Deaf Smith	Hinojosa	+49.5	297
Eastland	Hinojosa	+39.0	295
Goliad	Hinojosa	+53.9	293
Franklin	Hinojosa	+56.7	291
Live Oak	Hinojosa	+43.6	291
Somervell	Hinojosa	+41.1	287
Andrews	Hinojosa	+43.7	286
Wilbarger	Hinojosa	+40.2	286
Hutchinson	Hinojosa	+32.7	281
Culberson	Hinojosa	+39.4	241
Ward	Hinojosa	+36.9	241
Callahan	Hinojosa	+33.6	229
Clay	Hinojosa	+31.1	228
Lamb	Hinojosa	+39.4	226
Gray	Hinojosa	+33.0	212
Scurry	Hinojosa	+44.2	208
Sabine	Hinojosa	+13.5	207
Dawson	Hinojosa	+55.6	205
Kinney	Hinojosa	+47.0	198
Hamilton	Hinojosa	+47.9	194
Gaines	Hinojosa	+36.0	178
Terry	Hinojosa	+50.0	170
Crosby	Hinojosa	+43.1	160
Jeff Davis	Hinojosa	+54.8	157
Archer	Hinojosa	+31.0	155
Swisher	Hinojosa	+31.2	154
Runnels	Hinojosa	+37.3	153
Mason	Hinojosa	+63.2	152
Jack	Hinojosa	+33.3	141
Floyd	Hinojosa	+42.0	138
Coleman	Hinojosa	+38.7	137
McCulloch	Hinojosa	+46.6	133
Lynn	Hinojosa	+36.9	130
Delta	Hinojosa	+38.5	122
Mitchell	Hinojosa	+53.3	122
Castro	Hinojosa	+40.3	119
Crockett	Hinojosa	+68.4	114
Mills	Hinojosa	+43.4	113
Fisher	Hinojosa	+44.1	111
Real	Hinojosa	+54.1	111
Carson	Hinojosa	+47.5	99
San Saba	Hinojosa	+56.9	95
Kimble	Hinojosa	+41.9	93
Bailey	Hinojosa	+42.9	91
Parmer	Hinojosa	+46.7	90
Haskell	Hinojosa	+34.1	88
Stephens	Hinojosa	+29.6	88
Sutton	Hinojosa	+64.8	88
Hudspeth	Hinojosa	+34.5	87
Kenedy	Hinojosa	+46.0	87
Childress	Hinojosa	+27.7	83
Concho	Hinojosa	+47.3	74
Winkler	Hinojosa	+51.4	74
Schleicher	Hinojosa	+42.5	73
Coke	Hinojosa	+47.2	72
Garza	Hinojosa	+48.6	70
Yoakum	Hinojosa	+67.2	70
Ochiltree	Hinojosa	+47.8	69
Baylor	Hinojosa	+37.3	67
Hardeman	Hinojosa	+29.0	62
Martin	Hinojosa	+53.5	58
Edwards	Hinojosa	+57.9	57
Donley	Hinojosa	+33.9	56
Wheeler	Hinojosa	+34.5	55
Cochran	Hinojosa	+23.1	52
Crane	Hinojosa	+32.7	52
Menard	Hinojosa	+48.0	50
Dallam	Hinojosa	+47.9	48
Shackelford	Hinojosa	+50.0	48
Upton	Hinojosa	+46.8	47
Knox	Hinojosa	+48.9	45
Reagan	Hinojosa	+45.5	44
Stonewall	Hinojosa	+19.1	42
Hemphill	Hinojosa	+39.0	41
Hall	Hinojosa	+27.5	40
Hartley	Hinojosa	+28.2	39
Cottle	Hinojosa	+40.5	37
Hansford	Hinojosa	+62.2	37
Lipscomb	Hinojosa	+37.8	37
Foard	Hinojosa	+11.1	36
Terrell	Hinojosa	+44.4	36
Dickens	Hinojosa	+41.2	34
Irion	Hinojosa	+39.4	33
Armstrong	Hinojosa	+61.3	31
Kent	Hinojosa	+35.5	31
Sherman	Hinojosa	+67.7	31
Collingsworth	Hinojosa	+53.3	30
Throckmorton	Hinojosa	+30.4	23
Briscoe	Hinojosa	+11.1	18
Oldham	Hinojosa	+61.1	18
Glasscock	Hinojosa	+80.0	10
Loving	Villescaz	+10.0	10
McMullen	Hinojosa	+40.0	10
Motley	Hinojosa	+11.1	9
Sterling	Hinojosa	+66.7	6
Borden	Hinojosa	+33.3	3
Roberts	Abrego	+33.3	3
King	Hinojosa	+0.0	2

Shift against the 2024 presidential vote

Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 253 counties reporting in both: 101.4 pts toward D.

10+ toward R
5–10 toward R
2–5 toward R
Within 2
2–5 toward D
5–10 toward D
10+ toward D
Not in both races

Biggest shifts toward D
County	2024	Now	Shift
Roberts	R+92.1	D+100.0	192.1 toward D
Borden	R+91.5	D+100.0	191.5 toward D
King	R+91.1	D+100.0	191.1 toward D
Motley	R+88.8	D+100.0	188.8 toward D
Glasscock	R+88.2	D+100.0	188.2 toward D
Sherman	R+88.1	D+100.0	188.1 toward D
Sterling	R+85.9	D+100.0	185.9 toward D
Armstrong	R+85.8	D+100.0	185.8 toward D
Hansford	R+84.8	D+100.0	184.8 toward D
Wheeler	R+84.6	D+100.0	184.6 toward D

How the count progressed

Gina HinojosaChris BellAngela VillescazVotes counted, times in UTC.

Updated 9 Oct, 17:17 UTC

Polls vs result

The last polling average before the vote (2 Mar 2026) against the actual result.

Mean absolute error: 3.3 pts
Error on the winner’s margin: −5.9 pts

Final polling average, result and error per party or candidate, in percentage points
Candidate	Average	Result	Error
Hinojosa (D)	56.9%	58.5%	−1.6
Bell (D)	14.1%	9.8%	+4.3
Villescaz (D)	2.4%	6.8%	−4.4
White (D)	1.0%	5.3%	−4.3
Cole (D)	3.5%	5.1%	−1.6
Democratic	—	2.9%	—

Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.

Polling trend

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
UT Tyler	27 Feb 2026	13 Feb 2026 – 22 Feb 2026	—	—	—	Hinojosa (D) 60.0% new Bell (D) 25.0% new	Source for UT Tyler poll (opens in a new tab)
Blueprint Polling (D)	26 Feb 2026	23 Feb 2026 – 24 Feb 2026	472	±4.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Hinojosa (D) 61.0% new Bell (D) 4.0% new Cole (D) 3.0% new Villescaz (D) 2.0% new White (D) 1.0% new	Source for Blueprint Polling (D) poll (opens in a new tab)
University of Houston/YouGov	11 Feb 2026	20 Jan 2026 – 31 Jan 2026	550	±4.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Hinojosa (D) 37.0% new Bell (D) 7.0% new Cole (D) 6.0% new Villescaz (D) 4.0% new	Source for University of Houston/YouGov poll (opens in a new tab)
Slingshot Strategies (D)	29 Jan 2026	14 Jan 2026 – 21 Jan 2026	1,290	±2.7 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Hinojosa (D) 29.0% new Bell (D) 4.0% new Cole (D) 3.0% new	Source for Slingshot Strategies (D) poll (opens in a new tab)
Texas Southern University	11 Dec 2025*	9 Dec 2025 – 11 Dec 2025	1,600	±2.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Hinojosa (D) 41.0% new White (D) 6.0% new Bell (D) 5.0% new Cole (D) 3.0% new Villescaz (D) 1.0% new	Source for Texas Southern University poll (opens in a new tab)

UT Tyler
27 Feb 2026 · n=— · MoE — · Method n/a
- Hinojosa (D)60.0%
- Bell (D)25.0%
View original source
Blueprint Polling (D)
26 Feb 2026 · n=472 · MoE ±4.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample)) · Method n/a
- Hinojosa (D)61.0%
- Bell (D)4.0%
- Cole (D)3.0%
- Villescaz (D)2.0%
- White (D)1.0%
View original source
University of Houston/YouGov
11 Feb 2026 · n=550 · MoE ±4.2 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample)) · Method n/a
- Hinojosa (D)37.0%
- Bell (D)7.0%
- Cole (D)6.0%
- Villescaz (D)4.0%
View original source
Slingshot Strategies (D)
29 Jan 2026 · n=1,290 · MoE ±2.7 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample)) · Method n/a
- Hinojosa (D)29.0%
- Bell (D)4.0%
- Cole (D)3.0%
View original source
Texas Southern University
11 Dec 2025* · n=1,600 · MoE ±2.5 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample)) · Method n/a
- Hinojosa (D)41.0%
- White (D)6.0%
- Bell (D)5.0%
- Cole (D)3.0%
- Villescaz (D)1.0%
View original source

* End of fieldwork: the source states no publication date.

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Hinojosa (D) leads the polling average in Texas on 56.9%, 42.8 points ahead of Bell (D) (14.1%). The biggest shift over the past month is Hinojosa (D), up 15.9 points.

4 polls from 4 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from UT Tyler, published 27 Feb 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Candidates

Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.

Gina HinojosaDemocratic
Chris BellDemocratic
Bobby ColeDemocratic
Angela VillescazDemocratic
Andrew WhiteDemocratic

Government

Who governs Texas now.

Greg Abbott

Governor of Texas