United States / Texas / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Texas gubernatorial election
Texas polling average: Abbott (R) 48.7% — Hinojosa (D) 47.3% — Abbott (R) +1.4Also: Dixon (I) 1.5%Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting99% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gina HinojosaProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 5,230,929 | 52.8% | |
| Greg AbbottRepublican Party | 4,524,955 | 45.7% | |
| Pat DixonLibertarian Party | 148,096 | 1.5% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 2,213 | 0.0% | |
| Jenn MackWrite-In | 2,198 | 0.0% | |
| Mike MillerWrite-In | 1,266 | 0.0% | |
| Edward Earl GilesWrite-In | 567 | 0.0% | |
| Jinghpaw MajoishingraWrite-In | 74 | 0.0% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harris | Hinojosa | +28.6 | 1,383,460 |
| Dallas | Hinojosa | +39.2 | 785,156 |
| Tarrant | Hinojosa | +14.2 | 729,430 |
| Bexar | Hinojosa | +31.0 | 660,091 |
| Travis | Hinojosa | +52.4 | 548,761 |
| Collin | Hinojosa | +4.5 | 458,597 |
| Denton | Hinojosa | +2.1 | 396,921 |
| Fort Bend | Hinojosa | +22.6 | 331,836 |
| Williamson | Hinojosa | +13.7 | 279,281 |
| Montgomery | Abbott | +26.7 | 258,832 |
All 254 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso | Hinojosa | +42.1 | 219,091 |
| Hidalgo | Hinojosa | +42.0 | 203,397 |
| Brazoria | Hinojosa | +1.7 | 141,964 |
| Galveston | Abbott | +9.7 | 134,716 |
| Hays | Hinojosa | +26.9 | 119,996 |
| Bell | Abbott | +0.6 | 111,116 |
| Lubbock | Abbott | +20.5 | 104,421 |
| Cameron | Hinojosa | +34.6 | 102,704 |
| Nueces | Hinojosa | +6.8 | 100,086 |
| Smith | Abbott | +29.0 | 89,271 |
| Comal | Abbott | +33.5 | 89,216 |
| Ellis | Abbott | +8.3 | 88,757 |
| McLennan | Abbott | +14.1 | 83,509 |
| Brazos | Hinojosa | +0.7 | 80,093 |
| Parker | Abbott | +53.9 | 76,327 |
| Jefferson | Hinojosa | +9.1 | 73,009 |
| Guadalupe | Abbott | +10.0 | 71,268 |
| Johnson | Abbott | +30.7 | 70,086 |
| Kaufman | Abbott | +2.5 | 62,420 |
| Webb | Hinojosa | +39.6 | 58,776 |
| Grayson | Abbott | +41.4 | 53,913 |
| Rockwall | Abbott | +26.5 | 53,645 |
| Randall | Abbott | +45.2 | 53,425 |
| Midland | Abbott | +41.7 | 44,194 |
| Taylor | Abbott | +34.8 | 42,759 |
| Gregg | Abbott | +24.1 | 38,121 |
| Hunt | Abbott | +37.6 | 37,612 |
| Bastrop | Hinojosa | +5.4 | 37,156 |
| Tom Green | Abbott | +30.7 | 36,264 |
| Wichita | Abbott | +28.7 | 34,592 |
| Henderson | Abbott | +50.2 | 31,239 |
| Wise | Abbott | +55.1 | 31,050 |
| Hood | Abbott | +55.6 | 30,337 |
| Ector | Abbott | +22.9 | 29,514 |
| Victoria | Abbott | +27.3 | 28,343 |
| Bowie | Abbott | +35.6 | 27,761 |
| Angelina | Abbott | +34.4 | 27,412 |
| Orange | Abbott | +53.2 | 26,451 |
| Kendall | Abbott | +47.7 | 26,196 |
| Potter | Abbott | +23.8 | 25,822 |
| Liberty | Abbott | +30.4 | 25,537 |
| Burnet | Abbott | +43.6 | 24,391 |
| Harrison | Abbott | +37.7 | 24,118 |
| Waller | Abbott | +5.5 | 23,762 |
| Kerr | Abbott | +43.2 | 23,507 |
| Van Zandt | Abbott | +63.3 | 22,264 |
| Wilson | Abbott | +40.2 | 22,065 |
| Walker | Abbott | +22.8 | 21,704 |
| Nacogdoches | Abbott | +17.0 | 21,583 |
| Medina | Abbott | +25.4 | 21,262 |
| Hardin | Abbott | +64.2 | 21,001 |
| San Patricio | Abbott | +17.1 | 20,162 |
| Wood | Abbott | +62.8 | 19,854 |
| Chambers | Abbott | +48.3 | 19,481 |
| Coryell | Abbott | +24.9 | 18,877 |
| Polk | Abbott | +49.0 | 17,553 |
| Rusk | Abbott | +43.1 | 17,442 |
| Cooke | Abbott | +54.4 | 17,220 |
| Cherokee | Abbott | +47.3 | 16,639 |
| Lamar | Abbott | +47.0 | 16,438 |
| Navarro | Abbott | +32.2 | 16,178 |
| Washington | Abbott | +45.0 | 15,542 |
| Upshur | Abbott | +59.0 | 15,539 |
| Anderson | Abbott | +48.0 | 15,368 |
| Caldwell | Hinojosa | +11.4 | 14,836 |
| Gillespie | Abbott | +52.0 | 14,644 |
| Atascosa | Abbott | +19.3 | 14,608 |
| Erath | Abbott | +49.3 | 14,191 |
| Starr | Hinojosa | +48.9 | 13,625 |
| Hopkins | Abbott | +49.1 | 13,334 |
| Hill | Abbott | +49.4 | 13,202 |
| Fannin | Abbott | +55.1 | 13,003 |
| Brown | Abbott | +63.4 | 12,989 |
| Maverick | Hinojosa | +35.1 | 12,939 |
| Austin | Abbott | +49.1 | 12,865 |
| Wharton | Abbott | +37.2 | 12,641 |
| Jasper | Abbott | +56.0 | 12,102 |
| Val Verde | Hinojosa | +3.9 | 11,791 |
| Grimes | Abbott | +46.7 | 11,753 |
| Llano | Abbott | +55.6 | 11,704 |
| Fayette | Abbott | +50.0 | 11,273 |
| Matagorda | Abbott | +32.3 | 10,953 |
| Cass | Abbott | +58.3 | 10,873 |
| Jim Wells | Hinojosa | +10.0 | 10,735 |
| Aransas | Abbott | +47.9 | 10,632 |
| Palo Pinto | Abbott | +49.4 | 10,410 |
| San Jacinto | Abbott | +53.2 | 10,408 |
| Bandera | Abbott | +56.2 | 10,246 |
| Lampasas | Abbott | +49.5 | 9,209 |
| Titus | Abbott | +28.0 | 8,768 |
| Montague | Abbott | +69.4 | 8,695 |
| Milam | Abbott | +43.9 | 8,643 |
| Lavaca | Abbott | +67.9 | 8,617 |
| Panola | Abbott | +55.3 | 8,590 |
| Uvalde | Abbott | +7.0 | 8,417 |
| Colorado | Abbott | +46.4 | 8,385 |
| Kleberg | Hinojosa | +9.7 | 8,227 |
| Burleson | Abbott | +52.8 | 7,820 |
| Bosque | Abbott | +57.4 | 7,775 |
| Blanco | Abbott | +45.6 | 7,606 |
| Hale | Abbott | +33.3 | 7,565 |
| Shelby | Abbott | +50.2 | 7,519 |
| Houston | Abbott | +48.9 | 7,490 |
| Freestone | Abbott | +52.4 | 7,337 |
| Limestone | Abbott | +40.5 | 7,283 |
| Tyler | Abbott | +66.0 | 7,263 |
| Bee | Abbott | +17.5 | 7,166 |
| Leon | Abbott | +67.9 | 7,096 |
| Howard | Abbott | +44.5 | 7,075 |
| Robertson | Abbott | +37.7 | 7,033 |
| Lee | Abbott | +46.5 | 6,959 |
| Gonzales | Abbott | +34.3 | 6,709 |
| Young | Abbott | +63.9 | 6,605 |
| Hockley | Abbott | +47.1 | 6,462 |
| Calhoun | Abbott | +34.4 | 6,358 |
| Eastland | Abbott | +64.9 | 6,357 |
| DeWitt | Abbott | +57.0 | 6,265 |
| Hutchinson | Abbott | +64.0 | 6,095 |
| Trinity | Abbott | +56.7 | 5,772 |
| Gray | Abbott | +62.2 | 5,513 |
| Callahan | Abbott | +67.1 | 5,399 |
| Jones | Abbott | +59.0 | 5,254 |
| Comanche | Abbott | +59.8 | 5,154 |
| Rains | Abbott | +64.5 | 5,094 |
| Jackson | Abbott | +57.4 | 5,038 |
| Falls | Abbott | +32.7 | 4,952 |
| Gaines | Abbott | +65.2 | 4,808 |
| Willacy | Hinojosa | +28.4 | 4,673 |
| Clay | Abbott | +70.2 | 4,647 |
| Somervell | Abbott | +60.3 | 4,321 |
| Madison | Abbott | +51.5 | 4,298 |
| Camp | Abbott | +37.3 | 4,297 |
| Newton | Abbott | +58.6 | 4,295 |
| Sabine | Abbott | +71.9 | 4,277 |
| Franklin | Abbott | +59.6 | 4,272 |
| Red River | Abbott | +48.5 | 4,241 |
| Morris | Abbott | +40.3 | 4,221 |
| Scurry | Abbott | +60.6 | 4,191 |
| Andrews | Abbott | +47.0 | 4,177 |
| Moore | Abbott | +34.0 | 4,132 |
| Karnes | Abbott | +41.9 | 4,051 |
| Archer | Abbott | +71.1 | 4,009 |
| Live Oak | Abbott | +60.7 | 3,871 |
| Frio | Hinojosa | +4.9 | 3,843 |
| Marion | Abbott | +45.0 | 3,836 |
| Brewster | Hinojosa | +8.0 | 3,824 |
| Nolan | Abbott | +44.4 | 3,750 |
| Hamilton | Abbott | +63.2 | 3,583 |
| Deaf Smith | Abbott | +19.2 | 3,545 |
| Jack | Abbott | +68.7 | 3,429 |
| Wilbarger | Abbott | +47.0 | 3,411 |
| Pecos | Abbott | +16.2 | 3,393 |
| Goliad | Abbott | +49.1 | 3,377 |
| Zapata | Hinojosa | +31.6 | 3,354 |
| Duval | Hinojosa | +28.2 | 3,340 |
| Lamb | Abbott | +47.2 | 3,302 |
| Coleman | Abbott | +72.2 | 3,249 |
| Runnels | Abbott | +66.2 | 3,195 |
| Reeves | Abbott | +3.8 | 3,148 |
| Zavala | Hinojosa | +46.1 | 3,121 |
| San Augustine | Abbott | +44.0 | 3,098 |
| Stephens | Abbott | +65.6 | 2,810 |
| Dimmit | Hinojosa | +35.4 | 2,714 |
| McCulloch | Abbott | +62.1 | 2,675 |
| Terry | Abbott | +46.2 | 2,632 |
| Dawson | Abbott | +45.0 | 2,581 |
| Ward | Abbott | +45.3 | 2,567 |
| Refugio | Abbott | +27.9 | 2,426 |
| Carson | Abbott | +69.9 | 2,397 |
| Ochiltree | Abbott | +54.4 | 2,342 |
| San Saba | Abbott | +66.2 | 2,196 |
| Mason | Abbott | +56.1 | 2,167 |
| Mills | Abbott | +67.6 | 2,147 |
| Lynn | Abbott | +56.8 | 2,125 |
| Delta | Abbott | +58.1 | 2,016 |
| Parmer | Abbott | +46.6 | 1,983 |
| Presidio | Hinojosa | +52.5 | 1,982 |
| Kimble | Abbott | +67.8 | 1,976 |
| La Salle | Hinojosa | +5.9 | 1,908 |
| Mitchell | Abbott | +62.5 | 1,871 |
| Brooks | Hinojosa | +34.2 | 1,825 |
| Yoakum | Abbott | +41.6 | 1,783 |
| Swisher | Abbott | +48.7 | 1,718 |
| Childress | Abbott | +61.2 | 1,697 |
| Wheeler | Abbott | +71.0 | 1,697 |
| Floyd | Abbott | +44.2 | 1,644 |
| Haskell | Abbott | +60.6 | 1,626 |
| Castro | Abbott | +42.9 | 1,552 |
| Hartley | Abbott | +70.2 | 1,547 |
| Hansford | Abbott | +64.7 | 1,508 |
| Real | Abbott | +60.8 | 1,504 |
| Crosby | Abbott | +32.2 | 1,492 |
| Martin | Abbott | +58.8 | 1,475 |
| Bailey | Abbott | +38.2 | 1,425 |
| Fisher | Abbott | +54.3 | 1,421 |
| Jim Hogg | Hinojosa | +44.8 | 1,372 |
| Coke | Abbott | +69.7 | 1,354 |
| Winkler | Abbott | +44.9 | 1,347 |
| Shackelford | Abbott | +74.2 | 1,294 |
| Donley | Abbott | +70.8 | 1,277 |
| Kinney | Abbott | +32.5 | 1,250 |
| Hemphill | Abbott | +56.7 | 1,248 |
| Baylor | Abbott | +68.2 | 1,211 |
| Garza | Abbott | +56.9 | 1,165 |
| Sutton | Abbott | +51.0 | 1,102 |
| Dallam | Abbott | +52.8 | 1,024 |
| Jeff Davis | Abbott | +10.3 | 1,023 |
| Crane | Abbott | +45.7 | 1,014 |
| Knox | Abbott | +51.3 | 1,009 |
| Concho | Abbott | +61.6 | 1,000 |
| Crockett | Abbott | +33.9 | 1,000 |
| Hardeman | Abbott | +61.0 | 977 |
| Collingsworth | Abbott | +68.8 | 966 |
| Lipscomb | Abbott | +70.2 | 938 |
| Schleicher | Abbott | +47.3 | 923 |
| Culberson | Hinojosa | +16.0 | 891 |
| Armstrong | Abbott | +77.6 | 874 |
| Upton | Abbott | +56.3 | 871 |
| Hall | Abbott | +60.7 | 830 |
| Edwards | Abbott | +61.0 | 817 |
| Hudspeth | Abbott | +20.5 | 814 |
| Menard | Abbott | +53.7 | 790 |
| Dickens | Abbott | +62.4 | 753 |
| Oldham | Abbott | +73.3 | 750 |
| Sherman | Abbott | +62.5 | 714 |
| Reagan | Abbott | +40.2 | 704 |
| Cochran | Abbott | +40.4 | 701 |
| Irion | Abbott | +69.1 | 645 |
| Throckmorton | Abbott | +70.5 | 627 |
| Briscoe | Abbott | +69.4 | 601 |
| Glasscock | Abbott | +80.7 | 560 |
| Cottle | Abbott | +62.5 | 542 |
| Stonewall | Abbott | +58.9 | 516 |
| Motley | Abbott | +83.1 | 514 |
| Roberts | Abbott | +88.8 | 457 |
| Sterling | Abbott | +66.7 | 451 |
| Foard | Abbott | +56.7 | 411 |
| McMullen | Abbott | +70.9 | 381 |
| Kent | Abbott | +62.2 | 378 |
| Terrell | Abbott | +46.7 | 347 |
| Borden | Abbott | +87.4 | 309 |
| Kenedy | Abbott | +17.6 | 159 |
| King | Abbott | +86.4 | 118 |
| Loving | Abbott | +69.1 | 68 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 253 counties reporting in both: 19.4 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starr | R+16.0 | D+48.9 | 64.8 toward D |
| Zapata | R+22.4 | D+31.6 | 54.1 toward D |
| Maverick | R+18.5 | D+35.1 | 53.6 toward D |
| Hidalgo | R+2.9 | D+42.0 | 44.9 toward D |
| Webb | R+2.2 | D+39.6 | 41.8 toward D |
| Cameron | R+5.8 | D+34.6 | 40.4 toward D |
| Duval | R+9.8 | D+28.2 | 38.0 toward D |
| Jim Hogg | D+8.3 | D+44.8 | 36.6 toward D |
| Reeves | R+36.9 | R+3.8 | 33.1 toward D |
| Moore | R+67.1 | R+34.0 | 33.1 toward D |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Abbott (R) leads the polling average in Texas on 48.7%, 1.4 points ahead of Hinojosa (D) (47.3%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.
29 polls from 27 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Research Co., published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Greg AbbottRepublicanIncumbent
- Gina HinojosaDemocratic
- Pat Dixon
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Tilt RForecast
Chance of winning: Greg Abbott (R) 64%, Gina Hinojosa (D) 37%
- Cook Political ReportLean R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean R
- Inside ElectionsTilt R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Inside Elections:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- VoteHub:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Model:Lean RTilt R28 Oct
- Kalshi:Lean RTilt R28 Oct
- Polymarket:Lean RTilt R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Lean RTilt R28 Oct
- Inside Elections:Likely RLean R20 Oct
Government
Who governs Texas now.
Greg Abbott
Governor of Texas