United States / Arkansas / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Arkansas polling average: Cotton (R) 54.4% — Shoffner (D) 39.0% — Cotton (R) +15.4Pollytic average to 29 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tom CottonWinnerRepublican Party | 480,777 | 54.3% | |
| Hallie ShoffnerDemocratic Party | 375,800 | 42.4% | |
| Jeff WadlinLibertarian Party | 29,487 | 3.3% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pulaski | Shoffner | +35.2 | 130,223 |
| Benton | Cotton | +6.1 | 99,022 |
| Washington | Shoffner | +17.5 | 76,041 |
| Saline | Cotton | +23.2 | 43,533 |
| Faulkner | Cotton | +12.4 | 40,306 |
| Sebastian | Cotton | +19.3 | 33,208 |
| Garland | Cotton | +23.0 | 31,602 |
| Craighead | Cotton | +13.6 | 26,180 |
| Lonoke | Cotton | +36.6 | 22,674 |
| White | Cotton | +45.9 | 22,350 |
All 75 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson | Shoffner | +29.0 | 17,185 |
| Pope | Cotton | +34.4 | 16,643 |
| Crawford | Cotton | +42.0 | 16,117 |
| Baxter | Cotton | +46.6 | 14,249 |
| Union | Cotton | +19.5 | 11,471 |
| Boone | Cotton | +49.4 | 11,406 |
| Crittenden | Shoffner | +18.7 | 10,941 |
| Miller | Cotton | +38.7 | 10,710 |
| Greene | Cotton | +41.4 | 10,631 |
| Cleburne | Cotton | +58.0 | 9,584 |
| Independence | Cotton | +43.2 | 9,139 |
| Carroll | Cotton | +12.9 | 8,745 |
| Hot Spring | Cotton | +36.0 | 8,533 |
| Mississippi | Cotton | +6.9 | 7,681 |
| Johnson | Cotton | +30.3 | 6,649 |
| Conway | Cotton | +26.2 | 6,624 |
| Ouachita | Cotton | +8.4 | 6,414 |
| Clark | Cotton | +5.8 | 5,881 |
| Columbia | Cotton | +22.2 | 5,720 |
| Logan | Cotton | +44.2 | 5,665 |
| Marion | Cotton | +49.5 | 5,597 |
| Van Buren | Cotton | +48.1 | 5,435 |
| Sharp | Cotton | +50.7 | 5,402 |
| Polk | Cotton | +57.6 | 5,302 |
| Poinsett | Cotton | +43.4 | 5,233 |
| Grant | Cotton | +51.3 | 5,229 |
| Ashley | Cotton | +34.7 | 5,212 |
| Madison | Cotton | +38.0 | 5,168 |
| Franklin | Cotton | +39.1 | 5,165 |
| Drew | Cotton | +18.7 | 5,051 |
| St. Francis | Shoffner | +12.6 | 4,810 |
| Yell | Cotton | +39.9 | 4,580 |
| Izard | Cotton | +53.1 | 4,466 |
| Randolph | Cotton | +45.7 | 4,441 |
| Stone | Cotton | +48.9 | 4,297 |
| Cross | Cotton | +26.6 | 4,245 |
| Phillips | Shoffner | +23.5 | 4,152 |
| Hempstead | Cotton | +22.7 | 4,078 |
| Arkansas | Cotton | +27.4 | 4,066 |
| Lawrence | Cotton | +47.7 | 3,877 |
| Little River | Cotton | +42.6 | 3,684 |
| Fulton | Cotton | +46.4 | 3,486 |
| Clay | Cotton | +46.7 | 3,389 |
| Jackson | Cotton | +29.9 | 3,288 |
| Perry | Cotton | +42.2 | 3,241 |
| Howard | Cotton | +30.2 | 3,240 |
| Sevier | Cotton | +30.4 | 3,098 |
| Chicot | Shoffner | +19.1 | 3,017 |
| Pike | Cotton | +56.7 | 2,902 |
| Newton | Cotton | +48.8 | 2,887 |
| Desha | Shoffner | +12.3 | 2,870 |
| Montgomery | Cotton | +52.5 | 2,569 |
| Searcy | Cotton | +52.8 | 2,538 |
| Scott | Cotton | +63.1 | 2,529 |
| Lincoln | Cotton | +34.6 | 2,449 |
| Cleveland | Cotton | +56.7 | 2,339 |
| Prairie | Cotton | +52.6 | 2,329 |
| Bradley | Cotton | +23.2 | 2,311 |
| Nevada | Cotton | +28.4 | 2,103 |
| Monroe | Cotton | +2.0 | 2,067 |
| Lee | Shoffner | +18.7 | 2,040 |
| Lafayette | Cotton | +24.4 | 1,840 |
| Woodruff | Cotton | +18.9 | 1,805 |
| Dallas | Cotton | +18.8 | 1,728 |
| Calhoun | Cotton | +45.9 | 1,382 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 3.8 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −0.9 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton (R) | 50.0% | 54.3% | −4.3 |
| Shoffner (D) | 39.0% | 42.4% | −3.4 |
| Wadlin (L) | — | 3.3% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Cotton (R) leads the polling average in Arkansas on 54.4%, 15.4 points ahead of Shoffner (D) (39.0%). The biggest shift over the past month is Cotton (R), up 7.4 points.
2 polls from 1 institute were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from GrayHouse (R), published 29 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Tom CottonRepublicanIncumbent
- Hallie ShoffnerDemocratic
- Jeff WadlinLibertarian
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe RForecast
Chance of winning: Tom Cotton (R) 92%, Hallie Shoffner (D) 8%
- Cook Political ReportSafe R
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe R
- Inside ElectionsSafe R
- Split TicketSafe R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Arkansas now.
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Governor of Arkansas