United States / Kansas / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Kansas
Kansas polling average: Hamilton (D) 49.8% — Marshall (R) 45.6% — Hamilton (D) +4.2Also: Graham (I) 3.6%Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam HamiltonWinnerDemocratic Party | 559,853 | 51.0% | |
| Roger MarshallRepublican Party | 504,950 | 46.0% | |
| David C GrahamLibertarian Party | 33,117 | 3.0% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson | Hamilton | +28.0 | 296,600 |
| Sedgwick | Hamilton | +7.6 | 182,310 |
| Shawnee | Hamilton | +18.8 | 69,415 |
| Douglas | Hamilton | +54.7 | 50,888 |
| Wyandotte | Hamilton | +48.7 | 43,172 |
| Leavenworth | Marshall | +0.9 | 28,352 |
| Butler | Marshall | +23.5 | 26,047 |
| Reno | Marshall | +15.8 | 21,708 |
| Riley | Hamilton | +21.1 | 20,001 |
| Saline | Marshall | +14.4 | 19,636 |
All 105 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | Marshall | +19.0 | 14,110 |
| Harvey | Marshall | +3.9 | 13,727 |
| Crawford | Marshall | +1.5 | 12,157 |
| McPherson | Marshall | +25.6 | 11,538 |
| Lyon | Hamilton | +8.1 | 11,300 |
| Pottawatomie | Marshall | +28.8 | 10,799 |
| Ellis | Marshall | +24.7 | 10,642 |
| Cowley | Marshall | +20.2 | 10,445 |
| Franklin | Marshall | +18.0 | 9,766 |
| Finney | Hamilton | +2.2 | 9,115 |
| Montgomery | Marshall | +31.3 | 9,024 |
| Barton | Marshall | +38.2 | 8,459 |
| Sumner | Marshall | +30.2 | 8,110 |
| Jefferson | Marshall | +18.3 | 7,911 |
| Dickinson | Marshall | +37.0 | 7,199 |
| Ford | Hamilton | +1.0 | 7,192 |
| Geary | Hamilton | +5.5 | 6,752 |
| Osage | Marshall | +28.3 | 6,082 |
| Cherokee | Marshall | +32.9 | 6,054 |
| Labette | Marshall | +19.1 | 5,830 |
| Jackson | Marshall | +22.3 | 5,264 |
| Atchison | Marshall | +14.0 | 5,176 |
| Neosho | Marshall | +26.0 | 4,913 |
| Marion | Marshall | +35.0 | 4,706 |
| Bourbon | Marshall | +34.8 | 4,573 |
| Nemaha | Marshall | +54.6 | 4,483 |
| Seward | Hamilton | +13.4 | 4,184 |
| Allen | Marshall | +22.9 | 4,086 |
| Marshall | Marshall | +31.2 | 3,889 |
| Linn | Marshall | +47.5 | 3,620 |
| Coffey | Marshall | +39.8 | 3,373 |
| Brown | Marshall | +29.8 | 3,372 |
| Clay | Marshall | +40.1 | 3,309 |
| Pratt | Marshall | +33.3 | 3,290 |
| Wabaunsee | Marshall | +32.2 | 3,248 |
| Cloud | Marshall | +42.1 | 3,155 |
| Rice | Marshall | +37.9 | 3,119 |
| Kingman | Marshall | +44.4 | 3,117 |
| Anderson | Marshall | +41.7 | 2,858 |
| Thomas | Marshall | +48.9 | 2,835 |
| Wilson | Marshall | +46.2 | 2,787 |
| Doniphan | Marshall | +48.0 | 2,561 |
| Russell | Marshall | +44.5 | 2,547 |
| Mitchell | Marshall | +53.4 | 2,469 |
| Ottawa | Marshall | +54.8 | 2,441 |
| Morris | Marshall | +23.4 | 2,324 |
| Ellsworth | Marshall | +33.7 | 2,244 |
| Greenwood | Marshall | +45.2 | 2,217 |
| Washington | Marshall | +58.4 | 2,156 |
| Pawnee | Marshall | +36.6 | 2,050 |
| Phillips | Marshall | +60.3 | 1,982 |
| Republic | Marshall | +49.6 | 1,942 |
| Rooks | Marshall | +56.7 | 1,922 |
| Sherman | Marshall | +53.4 | 1,900 |
| Harper | Marshall | +47.8 | 1,841 |
| Norton | Marshall | +54.9 | 1,803 |
| Barber | Marshall | +59.4 | 1,671 |
| Scott | Marshall | +55.2 | 1,655 |
| Gray | Marshall | +50.7 | 1,645 |
| Grant | Marshall | +35.3 | 1,615 |
| Smith | Marshall | +57.5 | 1,523 |
| Stafford | Marshall | +44.2 | 1,489 |
| Trego | Marshall | +53.4 | 1,359 |
| Meade | Marshall | +52.1 | 1,354 |
| Stevens | Marshall | +50.2 | 1,339 |
| Rush | Marshall | +45.7 | 1,302 |
| Osborne | Marshall | +54.5 | 1,292 |
| Lincoln | Marshall | +54.9 | 1,289 |
| Jewell | Marshall | +64.5 | 1,198 |
| Chase | Marshall | +33.7 | 1,150 |
| Chautauqua | Marshall | +60.4 | 1,109 |
| Woodson | Marshall | +44.9 | 1,108 |
| Decatur | Marshall | +56.8 | 1,096 |
| Logan | Marshall | +56.6 | 1,094 |
| Rawlins | Marshall | +57.0 | 1,085 |
| Ness | Marshall | +65.1 | 1,084 |
| Cheyenne | Marshall | +54.0 | 1,063 |
| Sheridan | Marshall | +69.9 | 1,047 |
| Kearny | Marshall | +52.5 | 1,025 |
| Edwards | Marshall | +52.9 | 1,017 |
| Graham | Marshall | +49.0 | 1,014 |
| Elk | Marshall | +58.8 | 1,011 |
| Haskell | Marshall | +43.5 | 997 |
| Gove | Marshall | +62.3 | 949 |
| Kiowa | Marshall | +57.3 | 882 |
| Clark | Marshall | +54.4 | 752 |
| Morton | Marshall | +57.1 | 738 |
| Hodgeman | Marshall | +57.3 | 731 |
| Wichita | Marshall | +59.0 | 693 |
| Lane | Marshall | +56.3 | 670 |
| Comanche | Marshall | +47.3 | 628 |
| Wallace | Marshall | +76.0 | 599 |
| Hamilton | Marshall | +48.7 | 575 |
| Stanton | Marshall | +42.8 | 531 |
| Greeley | Marshall | +46.0 | 444 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 1.0 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −1.3 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton (D) | 49.3% | 50.9% | −1.6 |
| Marshall (R) | 45.7% | 46.0% | −0.3 |
| Libertarian | — | 3.0% | — |
| Graham (I) | 3.6% | — | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Hamilton (D) leads the polling average in Kansas on 49.8%, 4.2 points ahead of Marshall (R) (45.6%). The biggest shift over the past month is Hamilton (D), up 3.7 points.
12 polls from 10 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Survey 160, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Adam HamiltonDemocratic
- Roger MarshallRepublican
- David Graham
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Toss-upForecast
Chance of winning: Roger Marshall (R) 57%, Adam Hamilton (D) 43%
- Cook Political ReportToss-up
- Sabato's Crystal BallToss-up
- Inside ElectionsToss-up
- Split TicketLean D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Model:Tilt RToss-up3 Nov
- CM Election Predictions:Lean RToss-up3 Nov
- ElectIndex:Lean RToss-up3 Nov
- FiftyPlusOne:Toss-upLean D3 Nov
- Inside Elections:Tilt RToss-up3 Nov
- Kalshi:Tilt RTilt D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Tilt RTilt D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Toss-upTilt D3 Nov
- Split Ticket:Lean RLean D3 Nov
- VoteHub:Lean RToss-up3 Nov
- Split Ticket:Toss-upLean R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Tilt RToss-up21 Oct
- Cook Political Report:Lean RToss-up20 Oct
- FiftyPlusOne:Lean RToss-up20 Oct
- Inside Elections:Likely RTilt R20 Oct
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Lean RToss-up20 Oct
- Split Ticket:Lean RToss-up20 Oct
- Model:Likely RTilt R4 Oct
Government
Who governs Kansas now.
Laura Kelly
Governor of Kansas