United States / Maine / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Maine
Maine polling average: Jackson (D) 50.5% — Collins (R) 46.6% — Jackson (D) +3.9Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting96% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troy JacksonProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 376,015 | 53.0% | |
| Susan CollinsRepublican Party | 332,563 | 46.9% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 882 | 0.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland | Jackson | +34.8 | 174,698 |
| York | Jackson | +11.2 | 112,955 |
| Penobscot | Collins | +14.7 | 72,753 |
| Kennebec | Collins | +0.2 | 66,771 |
| Androscoggin | Collins | +8.7 | 50,377 |
| Hancock | Jackson | +10.2 | 31,413 |
| Oxford | Collins | +15.7 | 28,895 |
| Aroostook | Collins | +31.0 | 28,061 |
| Somerset | Collins | +31.2 | 22,119 |
| Waldo | Jackson | +3.5 | 22,075 |
All 16 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knox | Jackson | +18.4 | 21,571 |
| Lincoln | Jackson | +8.6 | 20,430 |
| Sagadahoc | Jackson | +17.9 | 20,389 |
| Franklin | Collins | +12.5 | 14,003 |
| Washington | Collins | +24.4 | 13,715 |
| Piscataquis | Collins | +36.5 | 8,353 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Jackson (D) leads the polling average in Maine on 50.5%, 3.9 points ahead of Collins (R) (46.6%). The biggest shift over the past month is Jackson (D), up 2.3 points.
18 polls from 16 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Emerson College, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Troy JacksonDemocratic
- Susan CollinsRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Toss-upForecast
Chance of winning: Troy Jackson (D) 58%, Susan Collins (R) 42%
- Cook Political ReportToss-up
- Sabato's Crystal BallToss-up
- Inside ElectionsToss-up
- Split TicketLean D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- FiftyPlusOne:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- Kalshi:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Toss-upLean D3 Nov
- VoteHub:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Tilt DToss-up28 Oct
- PredictIt:Toss-upTilt D21 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Toss-upLean D20 Oct
- ElectIndex:Toss-upLean D20 Oct
- Kalshi:Toss-upTilt D20 Oct
- Polymarket:Toss-upTilt D20 Oct
- Kalshi:Tilt DToss-up4 Oct
Government
Who governs Maine now.
Janet Mills
Governor of Maine