United States / Massachusetts / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
Massachusetts polling average: Markey (D) 55.0% — Deaton (R) 29.3% — Markey (D) +25.7Also: (PSL) (I) 4.9%Pollytic average to 1 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting91% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed MarkeyProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 1,650,740 | 63.4% | |
| John DeatonRepublican Party | 837,135 | 32.1% | |
| Shiva AyyaduraiIndependent | 59,737 | 2.3% | |
| Joe Tache (PSL)Socialism and Liberation | 56,435 | 2.2% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex | Markey | +44.1 | 614,184 |
| Worcester | Markey | +16.3 | 312,755 |
| Essex | Markey | +29.1 | 298,580 |
| Norfolk | Markey | +31.4 | 295,500 |
| Plymouth | Markey | +12.9 | 229,390 |
| Suffolk | Markey | +59.7 | 207,295 |
| Bristol | Markey | +12.6 | 201,825 |
| Hampden | Markey | +18.2 | 154,019 |
| Barnstable | Markey | +22.2 | 119,785 |
| Hampshire | Markey | +45.3 | 68,777 |
All 14 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire | Markey | +48.4 | 52,370 |
| Franklin | Markey | +42.8 | 35,063 |
| Dukes | Markey | +56.3 | 9,484 |
| Nantucket | Markey | +45.2 | 5,020 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 14 counties reporting in both: 5.9 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hampden | R+10.9 | D+18.2 | 29.2 toward D |
| Franklin | D+18.6 | D+42.9 | 24.3 toward D |
| Norfolk | D+17.0 | D+31.4 | 14.4 toward D |
| Bristol | D+1.3 | D+12.6 | 11.3 toward D |
| Barnstable | D+11.9 | D+22.2 | 10.2 toward D |
| Berkshire | D+39.7 | D+48.4 | 8.7 toward D |
| Nantucket | D+36.7 | D+45.2 | 8.4 toward D |
| Suffolk | D+52.1 | D+59.7 | 7.6 toward D |
| Middlesex | D+39.2 | D+44.1 | 4.9 toward D |
| Dukes | D+52.4 | D+56.3 | 3.9 toward D |
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Worcester | D+28.0 | D+16.2 | 11.7 toward R |
| Essex | D+30.2 | D+29.1 | 1.1 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Markey (D) leads the polling average in Massachusetts on 55.0%, 25.7 points ahead of Deaton (R) (29.3%). The biggest shift over the past month is Markey (D), up 2.7 points.
4 polls from 4 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from University of New Hampshire, published 1 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Ed MarkeyDemocratic
- John DeatonRepublican
- Joe Tache (PSL)
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: Edward J. Markey (D) 98%, John Deaton (R) 2%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsSafe D
- Split TicketSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 10 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Massachusetts now.
Maura Healey
Governor of Massachusetts