United States / Michigan / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Michigan
Michigan polling average: El-Sayed (D) 50.2% — Rogers (R) 45.1% — El-Sayed (D) +5.1Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting96% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-SayedProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 2,505,871 | 52.5% | |
| Mike RogersRepublican Party | 2,171,078 | 45.5% | |
| Lydia ChristensenLibertarian Party | 49,470 | 1.0% | |
| Tim LongU.S. Taxpayers | 26,389 | 0.6% | |
| Douglas P. MarshGreen Party | 12,499 | 0.3% | |
| Walter P. KristyNatural Law | 7,220 | 0.1% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 3,612 | 0.1% | |
| Craig Henley Johnson IIWrite-In | 0 | 0.0% | |
| Craig HenleyJohnsonNonpartisan | 0 | 0.0% | |
| Daniel Varney Tamba PawaWrite-In | 0 | 0.0% | |
| George Earnest HuffmanWrite-In | 0 | 0.0% | |
| Robert Trevor-Blair DavisWrite-In | 0 | 0.0% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne | El-Sayed | +43.3 | 718,619 |
| Oakland | El-Sayed | +14.3 | 671,858 |
| Macomb | Rogers | +1.8 | 419,030 |
| Kent | El-Sayed | +13.7 | 324,644 |
| Washtenaw | El-Sayed | +49.7 | 200,763 |
| Genesee | El-Sayed | +12.9 | 181,472 |
| Ottawa | Rogers | +15.7 | 160,391 |
| Ingham | El-Sayed | +38.7 | 131,722 |
| Kalamazoo | El-Sayed | +24.8 | 125,980 |
| Livingston | Rogers | +20.4 | 113,573 |
All 83 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saginaw | El-Sayed | +2.0 | 86,025 |
| St. Clair | Rogers | +28.8 | 79,670 |
| Muskegon | El-Sayed | +5.8 | 78,246 |
| Monroe | Rogers | +20.7 | 74,099 |
| Berrien | Rogers | +1.6 | 68,742 |
| Jackson | Rogers | +14.3 | 68,165 |
| Allegan | Rogers | +21.5 | 59,443 |
| Eaton | El-Sayed | +3.5 | 55,320 |
| Calhoun | Rogers | +6.2 | 54,526 |
| Grand Traverse | El-Sayed | +6.6 | 54,242 |
| Bay | Rogers | +6.7 | 49,731 |
| Lapeer | Rogers | +34.2 | 44,970 |
| Lenawee | Rogers | +15.0 | 44,319 |
| Clinton | Rogers | +3.1 | 43,445 |
| Midland | Rogers | +9.2 | 42,243 |
| Van Buren | Rogers | +7.5 | 33,676 |
| Marquette | El-Sayed | +19.0 | 33,604 |
| Shiawassee | Rogers | +16.4 | 33,049 |
| Barry | Rogers | +27.4 | 31,072 |
| Montcalm | Rogers | +31.8 | 27,686 |
| Ionia | Rogers | +24.8 | 27,574 |
| Isabella | El-Sayed | +3.1 | 26,070 |
| Tuscola | Rogers | +36.7 | 24,416 |
| Newaygo | Rogers | +37.1 | 23,631 |
| St. Joseph | Rogers | +24.3 | 23,555 |
| Cass | Rogers | +26.5 | 21,841 |
| Emmet | Rogers | +6.3 | 19,595 |
| Hillsdale | Rogers | +45.5 | 19,253 |
| Sanilac | Rogers | +43.3 | 18,491 |
| Mecosta | Rogers | +24.7 | 18,445 |
| Delta | Rogers | +23.0 | 16,892 |
| Branch | Rogers | +32.5 | 16,836 |
| Houghton | Rogers | +8.0 | 16,445 |
| Leelanau | El-Sayed | +10.5 | 15,933 |
| Gratiot | Rogers | +24.1 | 15,806 |
| Wexford | Rogers | +26.7 | 15,666 |
| Huron | Rogers | +36.0 | 15,636 |
| Mason | Rogers | +15.0 | 15,412 |
| Chippewa | Rogers | +17.5 | 15,088 |
| Charlevoix | Rogers | +12.0 | 14,960 |
| Antrim | Rogers | +19.3 | 14,369 |
| Clare | Rogers | +32.8 | 14,251 |
| Alpena | Rogers | +20.6 | 13,858 |
| Cheboygan | Rogers | +28.4 | 13,574 |
| Roscommon | Rogers | +29.4 | 13,287 |
| Otsego | Rogers | +29.3 | 12,949 |
| Manistee | Rogers | +10.7 | 12,927 |
| Iosco | Rogers | +24.2 | 12,765 |
| Oceana | Rogers | +23.5 | 12,626 |
| Gladwin | Rogers | +37.3 | 12,580 |
| Dickinson | Rogers | +25.9 | 11,841 |
| Benzie | Rogers | +1.4 | 11,086 |
| Osceola | Rogers | +42.2 | 10,684 |
| Ogemaw | Rogers | +37.0 | 10,317 |
| Menominee | Rogers | +28.4 | 10,263 |
| Kalkaska | Rogers | +33.9 | 9,239 |
| Missaukee | Rogers | +51.7 | 7,396 |
| Arenac | Rogers | +34.7 | 7,376 |
| Presque Isle | Rogers | +24.5 | 7,274 |
| Crawford | Rogers | +25.3 | 6,945 |
| Gogebic | Rogers | +8.3 | 6,565 |
| Alcona | Rogers | +39.0 | 6,269 |
| Mackinac | Rogers | +21.1 | 6,040 |
| Iron | Rogers | +21.0 | 5,677 |
| Lake | Rogers | +28.6 | 5,603 |
| Montmorency | Rogers | +43.4 | 5,322 |
| Alger | Rogers | +12.8 | 4,419 |
| Oscoda | Rogers | +40.6 | 4,336 |
| Schoolcraft | Rogers | +24.1 | 4,009 |
| Baraga | Rogers | +22.2 | 3,508 |
| Ontonagon | Rogers | +23.0 | 3,162 |
| Luce | Rogers | +41.5 | 2,366 |
| Keweenaw | Rogers | +7.6 | 1,386 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 1.7 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −1.9 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| El-Sayed (D) | 49.8% | 52.5% | −2.7 |
| Rogers (R) | 44.7% | 45.5% | −0.8 |
| Christensen (L) | — | 1.0% | — |
| Long (I) | — | 0.6% | — |
| Marsh (G) | — | 0.3% | — |
| Kristy (I) | — | 0.1% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
El-Sayed (D) leads the polling average in Michigan on 50.2%, 5.1 points ahead of Rogers (R) (45.1%). The biggest shift over the past month is El-Sayed (D), up 2.8 points.
27 polls from 24 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from John Zogby Strategies, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Abdul El-SayedDemocratic
- Mike RogersRepublican
- Lydia ChristensenLibertarian
- Tim Long
- Douglas P. MarshGreen
- Walter P. Kristy
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Tilt DForecast
Chance of winning: Abdul El-Sayed (D) 61%, Mike Rogers (R) 39%
- Cook Political ReportLean D
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean D
- Inside ElectionsTilt D
- Split TicketLikely D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Model:Toss-upTilt D3 Nov
- Cook Political Report:Toss-upLean D3 Nov
- FiftyPlusOne:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- Kalshi:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Tilt DLean D3 Nov
- Split Ticket:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Lean DTilt D28 Oct
- Polymarket:Tilt DLean D21 Oct
- Kalshi:Lean DTilt D20 Oct
- Polymarket:Lean DTilt D20 Oct
- PredictIt:Lean DTilt D20 Oct
Government
Who governs Michigan now.
Gretchen Whitmer
Governor of Michigan