United States / Nebraska / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Nebraska
Nebraska polling average: Ricketts (R) 48.2% — Osborn (I) 45.9% — Ricketts (R) +2.3Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete RickettsWinnerRepublican Party | 373,115 | 50.4% | |
| Dan OsbornIndependent | 322,625 | 43.6% | |
| Robin RichardsNebraska Working People | 19,064 | 2.6% | |
| Mike MarvinLegal Marijuana Now | 15,974 | 2.2% | |
| Chuck ConboyAmerica First | 8,914 | 1.2% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas | Osborn | +20.7 | 211,491 |
| Lancaster | Osborn | +19.4 | 122,391 |
| Sarpy | Osborn | +4.4 | 79,412 |
| Buffalo | Ricketts | +28.9 | 19,252 |
| Hall | Ricketts | +19.9 | 18,115 |
| Dodge | Ricketts | +15.5 | 12,936 |
| Lincoln | Ricketts | +40.3 | 12,712 |
| Madison | Ricketts | +41.2 | 12,131 |
| Platte | Ricketts | +43.1 | 12,068 |
| Cass | Ricketts | +21.5 | 11,843 |
All 93 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scotts Bluff | Ricketts | +28.4 | 11,673 |
| Adams | Ricketts | +26.5 | 11,034 |
| Saunders | Ricketts | +31.2 | 10,791 |
| Washington | Ricketts | +28.8 | 9,679 |
| Gage | Ricketts | +21.9 | 8,593 |
| Seward | Ricketts | +32.9 | 7,529 |
| Dawson | Ricketts | +27.8 | 6,904 |
| Otoe | Ricketts | +22.0 | 6,476 |
| York | Ricketts | +38.1 | 5,395 |
| Dakota | Ricketts | +13.0 | 4,971 |
| Saline | Ricketts | +9.7 | 4,526 |
| Hamilton | Ricketts | +46.6 | 4,347 |
| Red Willow | Ricketts | +54.0 | 4,257 |
| Holt | Ricketts | +60.7 | 4,206 |
| Cedar | Ricketts | +59.5 | 3,911 |
| Custer | Ricketts | +60.7 | 3,878 |
| Phelps | Ricketts | +55.9 | 3,812 |
| Knox | Ricketts | +53.6 | 3,711 |
| Box Butte | Ricketts | +33.3 | 3,591 |
| Butler | Ricketts | +46.2 | 3,585 |
| Merrick | Ricketts | +49.3 | 3,521 |
| Cheyenne | Ricketts | +48.8 | 3,392 |
| Keith | Ricketts | +50.8 | 3,371 |
| Wayne | Ricketts | +33.0 | 3,321 |
| Cuming | Ricketts | +51.2 | 3,312 |
| Pierce | Ricketts | +64.7 | 3,099 |
| Dawes | Ricketts | +29.9 | 3,095 |
| Richardson | Ricketts | +37.0 | 2,998 |
| Burt | Ricketts | +29.7 | 2,993 |
| Kearney | Ricketts | +46.5 | 2,905 |
| Colfax | Ricketts | +27.1 | 2,889 |
| Clay | Ricketts | +50.7 | 2,859 |
| Jefferson | Ricketts | +29.5 | 2,764 |
| Nemaha | Ricketts | +29.5 | 2,759 |
| Antelope | Ricketts | +64.0 | 2,740 |
| Howard | Ricketts | +51.2 | 2,739 |
| Stanton | Ricketts | +52.5 | 2,656 |
| Boone | Ricketts | +53.2 | 2,463 |
| Cherry | Ricketts | +64.6 | 2,446 |
| Fillmore | Ricketts | +39.7 | 2,378 |
| Dixon | Ricketts | +48.4 | 2,267 |
| Thayer | Ricketts | +47.8 | 2,239 |
| Polk | Ricketts | +51.6 | 2,130 |
| Morrill | Ricketts | +54.9 | 2,024 |
| Sheridan | Ricketts | +57.1 | 2,005 |
| Furnas | Ricketts | +56.1 | 1,990 |
| Johnson | Ricketts | +22.1 | 1,820 |
| Valley | Ricketts | +51.5 | 1,802 |
| Nuckolls | Ricketts | +52.0 | 1,716 |
| Thurston | Ricketts | +2.2 | 1,547 |
| Chase | Ricketts | +62.6 | 1,537 |
| Harlan | Ricketts | +57.3 | 1,406 |
| Webster | Ricketts | +53.6 | 1,348 |
| Nance | Ricketts | +44.7 | 1,341 |
| Sherman | Ricketts | +43.6 | 1,311 |
| Kimball | Ricketts | +51.6 | 1,288 |
| Brown | Ricketts | +63.3 | 1,275 |
| Franklin | Ricketts | +62.0 | 1,222 |
| Perkins | Ricketts | +55.2 | 1,162 |
| Pawnee | Ricketts | +36.4 | 1,148 |
| Frontier | Ricketts | +61.4 | 1,121 |
| Hitchcock | Ricketts | +59.2 | 1,071 |
| Greeley | Ricketts | +50.8 | 1,010 |
| Gosper | Ricketts | +54.6 | 899 |
| Garden | Ricketts | +58.5 | 893 |
| Boyd | Ricketts | +65.3 | 887 |
| Garfield | Ricketts | +65.8 | 824 |
| Deuel | Ricketts | +59.8 | 779 |
| Rock | Ricketts | +68.7 | 715 |
| Dundy | Ricketts | +63.4 | 683 |
| Sioux | Ricketts | +63.8 | 500 |
| Keya Paha | Ricketts | +76.4 | 427 |
| Wheeler | Ricketts | +61.6 | 391 |
| Hayes | Ricketts | +81.7 | 382 |
| Loup | Ricketts | +57.2 | 339 |
| Hooker | Ricketts | +61.6 | 336 |
| Logan | Ricketts | +76.8 | 327 |
| Thomas | Ricketts | +64.6 | 319 |
| Banner | Ricketts | +71.3 | 314 |
| Grant | Ricketts | +84.6 | 285 |
| Blaine | Ricketts | +68.7 | 236 |
| McPherson | Ricketts | +80.4 | 230 |
| Arthur | Ricketts | +73.4 | 226 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 2.6 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −5.2 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ricketts (R) | 47.8% | 50.4% | −2.6 |
| Osborn (I) | 46.2% | 43.6% | +2.6 |
| Richards (I) | — | 2.6% | — |
| Marvin (I) | — | 2.2% | — |
| Conboy (I) | — | 1.2% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Ricketts (R) leads the polling average in Nebraska on 48.2%, 2.3 points ahead of Osborn (I) (45.9%). The biggest shift over the past month is Osborn (I), up 1.4 points.
11 polls from 8 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from GrayHouse (R), published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Pete RickettsRepublican
- Dan Osborn
- Robin Richards
- Mike Marvin
- Chuck Conboy
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Toss-upForecast
Chance of winning: Pete Ricketts (R) 58%, Dan Osborn (I) 40%, D (D) 2%
- Cook Political ReportLean R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean R
- Inside ElectionsTilt R
- Split TicketLean R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 6 forecasters
FiftyPlusOne
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Cook Political Report:Likely RLean R3 Nov
- ElectIndex:Toss-upLean R3 Nov
- Inside Elections:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Kalshi:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Model:Tilt RToss-up21 Oct
- PredictIt:Lean RToss-up21 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Likely RLean R20 Oct
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Likely RLean R20 Oct
- Model:Likely RTilt R4 Oct
Government
Who governs Nebraska now.
Jim Pillen
Governor of Nebraska