United States / Rhode Island / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Rhode Island
Rhode Island polling average: Reed (D) 61.3% — McKay (R) 30.8% — Reed (D) +30.5Also: Bahry (I) 3.8%Pollytic average to 1 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting84% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack ReedProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 239,701 | 66.8% | |
| Raymond McKayRepublican Party | 105,139 | 29.3% | |
| Michael BahryIndependent | 13,499 | 3.8% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 694 | 0.2% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | Reed | +40.5 | 183,895 |
| Kent | Reed | +25.6 | 64,839 |
| Washington | Reed | +33.7 | 56,479 |
| Newport | Reed | +43.2 | 32,607 |
| Bristol | Reed | +47.0 | 20,458 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Reed (D) leads the polling average in Rhode Island on 61.3%, 30.5 points ahead of McKay (R) (30.8%). The biggest shift over the past month is Reed (D), up 8.3 points.
3 polls from 3 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from University of New Hampshire, published 1 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Jack ReedDemocratic
- Raymond McKayRepublican
- Michael Bahry
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: John F. Reed (D) 97%, Raymond T. McKay (R) 3%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsSafe D
- Split TicketSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Rhode Island now.
Dan McKee
Governor of Rhode Island