United States / South Carolina / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in South Carolina
South Carolina polling average: Graham (R) 46.4% — Andrews (D) 45.7% — Graham (R) +0.7Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annie AndrewsWinnerDemocratic Party | 1,042,362 | 51.1% | |
| Darline GrahamRepublican Party | 951,165 | 46.6% | |
| Kasie WhitenerLibertarian Party | 23,560 | 1.2% | |
| Mark HackettConstitution Party | 16,799 | 0.8% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 4,895 | 0.2% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenville | Andrews | +2.2 | 215,286 |
| Charleston | Andrews | +26.1 | 174,850 |
| Horry | Graham | +21.5 | 164,003 |
| Richland | Andrews | +53.2 | 161,427 |
| Spartanburg | Graham | +4.7 | 119,512 |
| York | Andrews | +3.4 | 116,179 |
| Lexington | Graham | +7.8 | 115,685 |
| Berkeley | Andrews | +9.4 | 90,875 |
| Beaufort | Graham | +2.8 | 86,058 |
| Anderson | Graham | +23.4 | 73,812 |
All 46 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aiken | Graham | +4.5 | 67,714 |
| Dorchester | Andrews | +9.6 | 62,252 |
| Florence | Andrews | +14.7 | 48,937 |
| Pickens | Graham | +29.4 | 44,683 |
| Lancaster | Graham | +5.3 | 42,746 |
| Sumter | Andrews | +26.8 | 36,458 |
| Oconee | Graham | +31.8 | 32,470 |
| Georgetown | Graham | +3.8 | 30,958 |
| Orangeburg | Andrews | +43.9 | 30,867 |
| Kershaw | Graham | +1.1 | 25,876 |
| Greenwood | Graham | +5.2 | 24,587 |
| Darlington | Andrews | +9.8 | 23,533 |
| Laurens | Graham | +16.3 | 23,380 |
| Cherokee | Graham | +28.8 | 17,645 |
| Jasper | Andrews | +2.0 | 17,416 |
| Newberry | Graham | +12.1 | 14,387 |
| Chesterfield | Graham | +5.4 | 13,821 |
| Colleton | Andrews | +4.2 | 13,705 |
| Clarendon | Andrews | +5.5 | 13,588 |
| Chester | Andrews | +6.2 | 12,048 |
| Williamsburg | Andrews | +38.8 | 11,694 |
| Marion | Andrews | +27.1 | 11,232 |
| Edgefield | Graham | +12.7 | 10,822 |
| Fairfield | Andrews | +28.1 | 9,666 |
| Union | Graham | +11.4 | 9,416 |
| Abbeville | Graham | +21.6 | 9,024 |
| Dillon | Andrews | +9.9 | 8,820 |
| Barnwell | Andrews | +3.7 | 7,664 |
| Marlboro | Andrews | +23.4 | 7,202 |
| Saluda | Graham | +23.8 | 7,023 |
| Hampton | Andrews | +18.7 | 6,634 |
| Lee | Andrews | +36.5 | 6,329 |
| Calhoun | Andrews | +7.1 | 5,890 |
| McCormick | Graham | +5.7 | 5,469 |
| Bamberg | Andrews | +32.2 | 4,631 |
| Allendale | Andrews | +56.6 | 2,507 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 2.9 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −5.2 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrews (D) | 45.6% | 51.1% | −5.5 |
| Graham (R) | 46.3% | 46.6% | −0.4 |
| Whitener (L) | — | 1.2% | — |
| Hackett (C) | — | 0.8% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
The race in South Carolina is too close to call: Graham (R) (46.4%) and Andrews (D) (45.7%) are within a point of each other in the polling average. The biggest shift over the past month is Andrews (D), up 1.8 points.
12 polls from 10 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Resonance Media Services (R), published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Darline GrahamRepublican
- Annie AndrewsDemocratic
- Kasie WhitenerLibertarian
- Mark HackettConstitution
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Lean RForecast
Chance of winning: Darline Graham (R) 74%, Annie Andrews (D) 26%
- Cook Political ReportLean R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean R
- Inside ElectionsTilt R
- Split TicketLean R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- ElectIndex:Lean RToss-up3 Nov
- Inside Elections:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Kalshi:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Polymarket:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- PredictIt:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Likely RLean R3 Nov
- VoteHub:Likely RLean R3 Nov
- CM Election Predictions:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Cook Political Report:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Fox News:Safe RLikely R28 Oct
- Kalshi:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Polymarket:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Split Ticket:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Lean RLikely R21 Oct
- Model:Likely RLean R20 Oct
- Inside Elections:Likely RLean R20 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RLean R20 Oct
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
- Split Ticket:Lean RLikely R20 Oct
Government
Who governs South Carolina now.
Henry McMaster
Governor of South Carolina