United States / Tennessee / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Tennessee
Tennessee polling average: Hagerty (R) 57.0% — Bradshaw (D) 37.0% — Hagerty (R) +20.0Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting89% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill HagertyProjected winnerRepublican Party | 1,138,457 | 55.1% | |
| Marquita BradshawDemocratic Party | 886,974 | 42.9% | |
| Robert JonesIndependent | 9,398 | 0.5% | |
| Tharon ChandlerIndependent | 7,689 | 0.4% | |
| Andrew GerenaIndependent | 5,633 | 0.3% | |
| Catherine Barcel "Barcy" WhitsonIndependent | 5,113 | 0.3% | |
| Jeremy Dean HearnIndependent | 4,937 | 0.2% | |
| David Sutman, Jr.Independent | 3,087 | 0.1% | |
| Yoshi D. MatthewsIndependent | 3,026 | 0.1% | |
| James William Macon IIIIndependent | 2,576 | 0.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby | Bradshaw | +37.2 | 248,486 |
| Davidson | Bradshaw | +44.8 | 221,227 |
| Knox | Hagerty | +1.9 | 156,270 |
| Hamilton | Bradshaw | +2.6 | 124,252 |
| Williamson | Hagerty | +23.7 | 103,659 |
| Rutherford | Bradshaw | +0.2 | 100,344 |
| Sumner | Hagerty | +24.8 | 64,555 |
| Wilson | Hagerty | +23.2 | 56,652 |
| Montgomery | Bradshaw | +0.1 | 55,954 |
| Sullivan | Hagerty | +40.7 | 45,922 |
All 95 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blount | Hagerty | +33.8 | 45,087 |
| Washington | Hagerty | +23.7 | 41,681 |
| Maury | Hagerty | +30.7 | 35,725 |
| Bradley | Hagerty | +42.6 | 28,676 |
| Madison | Hagerty | +4.6 | 27,195 |
| Sevier | Hagerty | +44.9 | 26,026 |
| Loudon | Hagerty | +44.3 | 23,843 |
| Anderson | Hagerty | +17.5 | 23,688 |
| Cumberland | Hagerty | +53.3 | 23,639 |
| Putnam | Hagerty | +31.3 | 23,114 |
| Robertson | Hagerty | +34.3 | 22,708 |
| Greene | Hagerty | +53.3 | 19,366 |
| Roane | Hagerty | +40.4 | 17,475 |
| Fayette | Hagerty | +33.0 | 16,941 |
| Tipton | Hagerty | +38.9 | 16,212 |
| Dickson | Hagerty | +34.6 | 15,744 |
| Jefferson | Hagerty | +50.4 | 15,497 |
| Coffee | Hagerty | +38.6 | 15,487 |
| Hamblen | Hagerty | +39.7 | 15,330 |
| Carter | Hagerty | +48.9 | 14,988 |
| Hawkins | Hagerty | +56.3 | 14,858 |
| McMinn | Hagerty | +49.2 | 14,035 |
| Cheatham | Hagerty | +27.2 | 13,949 |
| Monroe | Hagerty | +53.9 | 13,502 |
| Bedford | Hagerty | +39.4 | 12,739 |
| Gibson | Hagerty | +38.4 | 12,657 |
| Franklin | Hagerty | +40.1 | 12,317 |
| Lawrence | Hagerty | +56.5 | 11,808 |
| Marshall | Hagerty | +42.3 | 10,098 |
| Lincoln | Hagerty | +52.6 | 9,959 |
| Warren | Hagerty | +36.7 | 9,932 |
| Henry | Hagerty | +45.6 | 9,343 |
| Cocke | Hagerty | +55.7 | 9,279 |
| Claiborne | Hagerty | +60.1 | 8,777 |
| Weakley | Hagerty | +49.1 | 8,743 |
| Dyer | Hagerty | +51.0 | 8,601 |
| Rhea | Hagerty | +52.7 | 8,517 |
| Marion | Hagerty | +39.6 | 8,465 |
| Giles | Hagerty | +44.8 | 8,401 |
| Campbell | Hagerty | +54.2 | 8,369 |
| Obion | Hagerty | +53.6 | 8,015 |
| White | Hagerty | +54.4 | 7,996 |
| Hardin | Hagerty | +62.9 | 7,426 |
| McNairy | Hagerty | +59.2 | 7,178 |
| Carroll | Hagerty | +50.7 | 7,049 |
| Henderson | Hagerty | +57.7 | 7,003 |
| Hardeman | Hagerty | +9.0 | 6,665 |
| Grainger | Hagerty | +60.4 | 6,525 |
| Hickman | Hagerty | +48.1 | 6,485 |
| Overton | Hagerty | +49.4 | 6,462 |
| Fentress | Hagerty | +65.8 | 5,669 |
| Smith | Hagerty | +54.3 | 5,603 |
| Macon | Hagerty | +60.0 | 5,403 |
| Unicoi | Hagerty | +49.2 | 5,329 |
| Lauderdale | Hagerty | +23.6 | 5,293 |
| DeKalb | Hagerty | +49.0 | 5,247 |
| Humphreys | Hagerty | +41.4 | 5,212 |
| Polk | Hagerty | +55.6 | 5,134 |
| Johnson | Hagerty | +59.5 | 4,998 |
| Morgan | Hagerty | +60.5 | 4,956 |
| Sequatchie | Hagerty | +55.6 | 4,809 |
| Haywood | Bradshaw | +17.2 | 4,755 |
| Benton | Hagerty | +52.3 | 4,675 |
| Union | Hagerty | +57.1 | 4,629 |
| Chester | Hagerty | +53.3 | 4,541 |
| Stewart | Hagerty | +53.8 | 4,374 |
| Scott | Hagerty | +63.5 | 4,303 |
| Cannon | Hagerty | +50.2 | 4,198 |
| Wayne | Hagerty | +68.3 | 3,857 |
| Bledsoe | Hagerty | +55.9 | 3,816 |
| Lewis | Hagerty | +51.9 | 3,757 |
| Meigs | Hagerty | +54.9 | 3,651 |
| Crockett | Hagerty | +42.0 | 3,552 |
| Grundy | Hagerty | +52.4 | 3,492 |
| Jackson | Hagerty | +50.0 | 3,331 |
| Decatur | Hagerty | +59.3 | 3,316 |
| Trousdale | Hagerty | +43.4 | 2,648 |
| Houston | Hagerty | +45.2 | 2,339 |
| Moore | Hagerty | +57.1 | 2,305 |
| Perry | Hagerty | +57.2 | 2,137 |
| Van Buren | Hagerty | +52.3 | 2,105 |
| Clay | Hagerty | +53.9 | 2,039 |
| Pickett | Hagerty | +55.3 | 1,883 |
| Hancock | Hagerty | +63.4 | 1,523 |
| Lake | Hagerty | +39.3 | 1,115 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Hagerty (R) leads the polling average in Tennessee on 57.0%, 20.0 points ahead of Bradshaw (D) (37.0%). The biggest shift over the past month is Hagerty (R), up 6.0 points.
1 poll from 1 institute was published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Targoz Market Research, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Bill HagertyRepublican
- Marquita BradshawDemocratic
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe RForecast
Chance of winning: Bill Hagerty (R) 99%, Marquita Bradshaw (D) 1%
- Cook Political ReportSafe R
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe R
- Inside ElectionsSafe R
- Split TicketSafe R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Tennessee now.
Bill Lee
Governor of Tennessee