United States / Virginia / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Virginia
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark WarnerWinnerDemocratic Party | 2,182,960 | 61.2% | |
| Bert MizusawaRepublican Party | 1,376,971 | 38.6% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 9,432 | 0.3% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax | Warner | +52.0 | 470,209 |
| Prince William | Warner | +42.7 | 181,503 |
| Loudoun | Warner | +37.8 | 181,138 |
| Chesterfield | Warner | +24.9 | 174,515 |
| Henrico | Warner | +44.3 | 153,082 |
| Arlington | Warner | +69.7 | 101,874 |
| Stafford | Warner | +20.3 | 66,557 |
| Spotsylvania | Warner | +11.4 | 62,151 |
| Hanover | Mizusawa | +13.6 | 60,978 |
| Albemarle | Warner | +45.4 | 58,283 |
All 95 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke | Mizusawa | +5.8 | 43,929 |
| James City | Warner | +17.4 | 43,601 |
| Frederick | Mizusawa | +9.4 | 40,274 |
| Bedford | Mizusawa | +41.3 | 40,175 |
| Rockingham | Mizusawa | +27.1 | 37,248 |
| Montgomery | Warner | +21.7 | 35,804 |
| Fauquier | Mizusawa | +8.7 | 34,890 |
| Augusta | Mizusawa | +35.3 | 34,486 |
| York | Warner | +5.7 | 32,929 |
| Pittsylvania | Mizusawa | +30.9 | 26,151 |
| Campbell | Mizusawa | +38.0 | 24,178 |
| Franklin | Mizusawa | +33.4 | 23,724 |
| Culpeper | Mizusawa | +8.6 | 22,353 |
| Washington | Mizusawa | +32.9 | 20,948 |
| Isle of Wight | Mizusawa | +6.6 | 20,614 |
| Louisa | Mizusawa | +12.6 | 19,205 |
| Shenandoah | Mizusawa | +27.6 | 18,463 |
| Henry | Mizusawa | +17.6 | 18,152 |
| Gloucester | Mizusawa | +25.1 | 17,964 |
| Goochland | Mizusawa | +6.8 | 17,515 |
| Orange | Mizusawa | +8.6 | 17,398 |
| Botetourt | Mizusawa | +32.4 | 17,295 |
| Powhatan | Mizusawa | +33.2 | 16,961 |
| Warren | Mizusawa | +22.4 | 16,657 |
| New Kent | Mizusawa | +19.0 | 14,045 |
| Accomack | Mizusawa | +1.0 | 14,041 |
| Amherst | Mizusawa | +23.2 | 13,947 |
| Halifax | Mizusawa | +9.6 | 13,856 |
| Fluvanna | Warner | +9.3 | 13,816 |
| Caroline | Warner | +8.9 | 13,597 |
| Prince George | Mizusawa | +7.4 | 13,109 |
| Tazewell | Mizusawa | +51.6 | 13,099 |
| Pulaski | Mizusawa | +26.0 | 12,882 |
| Mecklenburg | Mizusawa | +11.1 | 12,654 |
| King George | Mizusawa | +9.4 | 11,849 |
| Carroll | Mizusawa | +49.2 | 11,648 |
| Dinwiddie | Mizusawa | +7.7 | 11,430 |
| Wythe | Mizusawa | +41.3 | 11,040 |
| Wise | Mizusawa | +41.9 | 10,888 |
| Rockbridge | Mizusawa | +21.7 | 10,154 |
| Smyth | Mizusawa | +39.8 | 10,135 |
| Greene | Mizusawa | +9.0 | 9,899 |
| Page | Mizusawa | +38.7 | 9,438 |
| Russell | Mizusawa | +44.2 | 9,025 |
| King William | Mizusawa | +25.2 | 9,021 |
| Westmoreland | Mizusawa | +1.0 | 8,743 |
| Appomattox | Mizusawa | +42.4 | 7,810 |
| Clarke | Mizusawa | +3.8 | 7,757 |
| Nelson | Warner | +7.5 | 7,736 |
| Prince Edward | Warner | +11.9 | 7,698 |
| Southampton | Mizusawa | +13.7 | 7,636 |
| Floyd | Mizusawa | +20.4 | 7,520 |
| Scott | Mizusawa | +51.4 | 7,429 |
| Patrick | Mizusawa | +47.3 | 6,930 |
| Northumberland | Mizusawa | +10.5 | 6,924 |
| Giles | Mizusawa | +34.5 | 6,588 |
| Madison | Mizusawa | +24.2 | 6,581 |
| Amelia | Mizusawa | +35.6 | 6,386 |
| Buckingham | Mizusawa | +8.8 | 6,235 |
| Lee | Mizusawa | +50.6 | 6,233 |
| Lancaster | Warner | +0.4 | 6,162 |
| Grayson | Mizusawa | +47.0 | 6,099 |
| Brunswick | Warner | +19.0 | 6,005 |
| Northampton | Warner | +18.8 | 5,974 |
| Middlesex | Mizusawa | +14.6 | 5,875 |
| Alleghany | Mizusawa | +28.2 | 5,839 |
| Buchanan | Mizusawa | +44.4 | 5,433 |
| Nottoway | Mizusawa | +10.3 | 5,206 |
| Dickenson | Mizusawa | +31.4 | 4,964 |
| Essex | Warner | +3.8 | 4,962 |
| Charlotte | Mizusawa | +25.1 | 4,808 |
| Mathews | Mizusawa | +27.5 | 4,761 |
| Lunenburg | Mizusawa | +11.2 | 4,569 |
| Cumberland | Mizusawa | +10.3 | 4,428 |
| Rappahannock | Mizusawa | +3.5 | 4,086 |
| Sussex | Warner | +14.4 | 3,739 |
| Surry | Warner | +10.7 | 3,557 |
| Charles City | Warner | +20.7 | 3,358 |
| King and Queen | Mizusawa | +14.9 | 3,332 |
| Greensville | Warner | +20.5 | 3,304 |
| Richmond | Mizusawa | +15.4 | 3,290 |
| Bland | Mizusawa | +50.3 | 2,481 |
| Craig | Mizusawa | +49.7 | 2,324 |
| Bath | Mizusawa | +38.6 | 1,876 |
| Highland | Mizusawa | +30.0 | 1,201 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polling trend
No polling data available for this election yet.
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
No polling data available for this election yet.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Mark WarnerDemocratic
- Bert MizusawaRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Safe DForecast
Chance of winning: Mark Warner (D) 98%, Bert Mizusawa (R) 2%
- Cook Political ReportSafe D
- Sabato's Crystal BallSafe D
- Inside ElectionsSafe D
- Split TicketSafe D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Government
Who governs Virginia now.
Abigail Spanberger
Governor of Virginia