United States / Vermont / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Vermont gubernatorial election
Vermont polling average: Janoo (D) 47.9% — Scott (R) 45.9% — Janoo (D) +2.0Pollytic average to 1 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil ScottWinnerRepublican Party | 162,042 | 52.4% | |
| Amanda JanooDemocratic Party | 141,631 | 45.8% | |
| Brian JuddIndependent | 2,614 | 0.8% | |
| June GoodbandPeace and Justice | 1,227 | 0.4% | |
| Dean RoyFreedom and Unity | 1,137 | 0.4% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 404 | 0.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chittenden | Janoo | +6.6 | 84,142 |
| Washington | Janoo | +1.1 | 31,092 |
| Windsor | Scott | +2.1 | 28,336 |
| Rutland | Scott | +31.1 | 26,824 |
| Windham | Janoo | +20.1 | 21,420 |
| Franklin | Scott | +36.1 | 21,315 |
| Addison | Scott | +2.7 | 19,745 |
| Bennington | Scott | +6.6 | 16,484 |
| Orange | Scott | +12.9 | 14,896 |
| Caledonia | Scott | +20.1 | 13,832 |
All 14 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamoille | Scott | +11.5 | 12,506 |
| Orleans | Scott | +33.4 | 11,605 |
| Grand Isle | Scott | +28.6 | 4,278 |
| Essex | Scott | +44.3 | 2,580 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 14 counties reporting in both: 38.7 pts toward R.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Isle | D+20.9 | R+28.6 | 49.6 toward R |
| Lamoille | D+35.6 | R+11.5 | 47.1 toward R |
| Chittenden | D+53.1 | D+6.6 | 46.5 toward R |
| Washington | D+43.0 | D+1.1 | 41.8 toward R |
| Franklin | D+3.0 | R+36.1 | 39.1 toward R |
| Addison | D+35.6 | R+2.7 | 38.2 toward R |
| Windsor | D+35.3 | R+2.1 | 37.4 toward R |
| Rutland | D+5.2 | R+31.1 | 36.4 toward R |
| Orange | D+20.0 | R+12.9 | 32.9 toward R |
| Caledonia | D+12.3 | R+20.1 | 32.4 toward R |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 4.3 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −8.6 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scott (R) | 45.9% | 52.4% | −6.5 |
| Janoo (D) | 47.9% | 45.8% | +2.1 |
| Judd (I) | — | 0.8% | — |
| Goodband (I) | — | 0.4% | — |
| Roy (I) | — | 0.4% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Janoo (D) leads the polling average in Vermont on 47.9%, 2.0 points ahead of Scott (R) (45.9%). The biggest shift over the past month is Janoo (D), up 10.6 points.
3 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from University of New Hampshire, published 1 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Amanda JanooDemocratic
- Phil ScottRepublican
- Brian Judd
- June Goodband
- Dean Roy
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Lean RForecast
Chance of winning: Phil Scott (R) 72%, Amanda Janoo (D) 28%
- Cook Political ReportLikely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean R
- Inside ElectionsLikely R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- CM Election Predictions:Likely RLean R3 Nov
- Kalshi:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- PredictIt:Lean RTilt R3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Likely RLean R3 Nov
- Model:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Fox News:Safe RLikely R28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- VoteHub:Likely RLean R28 Oct
- Cook Political Report:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
- Inside Elections:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
Government
Who governs Vermont now.
Phil Scott
Governor of Vermont