United States / Florida / Senate Election

2026 Florida Senate special Democratic primary

Name: 2026 Florida Senate special Democratic primary opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

Florida polling average: Vindman (D) 34.0% — Nixon (D) 24.0% — Vindman (D) +10.0Pollytic average to 16 Jul 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Election date

Polling trend

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Select to compare	Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
	Change Research (D)	16 Jul 2026	9 Jul 2026 – 11 Jul 2026	—	—	—	Vindman (D) 34.0% new Nixon (D) 24.0% new	Source for Change Research (D) poll (opens in a new tab)

Change Research (D)
16 Jul 2026 · n=— · MoE — · Method n/a
- Vindman (D)34.0%
- Nixon (D)24.0%
View original source

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Vindman (D) leads the polling average in Florida on 34.0%, 10.0 points ahead of Nixon (D) (24.0%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.

1 poll from 1 institute was published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Change Research (D), published 16 Jul 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Candidates

Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.

Alex VindmanDemocratic
Angie NixonDemocratic

Government

Who governs Florida now.

Ron DeSantis

Governor of Florida

Latest polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

What the polls say

Vindman (D) leads the polling average in Florida on 34.0%, 10.0 points ahead of Nixon (D) (24.0%). No party has moved by a point or more over the past month.