United States / Florida / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate special election in Florida
Florida polling average: Moody (R) 49.7% — Nixon (D) 43.4% — Moody (R) +6.3Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley MoodyWinnerRepublican Party | 4,208,004 | 50.9% | |
| Angie NixonDemocratic Party | 3,969,271 | 48.0% | |
| Neil J. GillespieIndependent | 94,538 | 1.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Dade | Nixon | +7.1 | 784,423 |
| Broward | Nixon | +32.3 | 659,761 |
| Palm Beach | Nixon | +10.2 | 570,107 |
| Hillsborough | Nixon | +9.0 | 516,454 |
| Orange | Nixon | +28.5 | 471,719 |
| Pinellas | Nixon | +0.7 | 403,408 |
| Duval | Nixon | +11.0 | 358,936 |
| Lee | Moody | +21.4 | 303,836 |
| Brevard | Moody | +14.3 | 269,941 |
| Polk | Moody | +6.6 | 257,911 |
All 67 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pasco | Moody | +14.3 | 240,110 |
| Volusia | Moody | +15.6 | 236,454 |
| Sarasota | Moody | +16.5 | 223,362 |
| Seminole | Nixon | +6.7 | 195,443 |
| Manatee | Moody | +19.4 | 182,041 |
| Lake | Moody | +18.4 | 177,906 |
| Collier | Moody | +28.8 | 171,671 |
| Marion | Moody | +25.8 | 163,871 |
| St. Johns | Moody | +26.3 | 155,868 |
| St. Lucie | Nixon | +2.2 | 137,823 |
| Osceola | Nixon | +18.4 | 131,736 |
| Leon | Nixon | +31.3 | 125,128 |
| Escambia | Moody | +9.8 | 116,036 |
| Alachua | Nixon | +33.1 | 105,436 |
| Charlotte | Moody | +33.4 | 100,471 |
| Sumter | Moody | +43.2 | 95,037 |
| Clay | Moody | +30.2 | 93,246 |
| Hernando | Moody | +29.3 | 80,181 |
| Okaloosa | Moody | +35.1 | 77,471 |
| Indian River | Moody | +22.9 | 77,397 |
| Martin | Moody | +26.6 | 76,264 |
| Citrus | Moody | +43.5 | 75,074 |
| Santa Rosa | Moody | +43.0 | 74,527 |
| Bay | Moody | +39.8 | 70,273 |
| Flagler | Moody | +24.9 | 63,877 |
| Nassau | Moody | +42.1 | 50,499 |
| Highlands | Moody | +35.6 | 39,695 |
| Walton | Moody | +53.3 | 35,259 |
| Monroe | Moody | +8.8 | 32,270 |
| Putnam | Moody | +39.0 | 26,505 |
| Columbia | Moody | +42.4 | 22,618 |
| Levy | Moody | +44.0 | 18,132 |
| Gadsden | Nixon | +37.6 | 17,821 |
| Suwannee | Moody | +54.3 | 15,867 |
| Jackson | Moody | +39.4 | 15,698 |
| Wakulla | Moody | +34.4 | 15,123 |
| Okeechobee | Moody | +40.4 | 11,129 |
| Hendry | Moody | +11.6 | 10,087 |
| Baker | Moody | +67.2 | 9,826 |
| Bradford | Moody | +49.9 | 9,715 |
| DeSoto | Moody | +29.6 | 9,120 |
| Washington | Moody | +59.8 | 9,040 |
| Gilchrist | Moody | +64.0 | 7,804 |
| Madison | Moody | +22.6 | 6,999 |
| Jefferson | Moody | +15.8 | 6,989 |
| Taylor | Moody | +52.6 | 6,972 |
| Gulf | Moody | +53.6 | 6,716 |
| Holmes | Moody | +75.5 | 6,207 |
| Hardee | Moody | +37.3 | 6,032 |
| Dixie | Moody | +66.1 | 5,617 |
| Franklin | Moody | +36.0 | 5,051 |
| Calhoun | Moody | +61.2 | 4,299 |
| Union | Moody | +62.4 | 4,286 |
| Hamilton | Moody | +30.7 | 4,149 |
| Glades | Moody | +42.2 | 3,812 |
| Liberty | Moody | +60.5 | 2,658 |
| Lafayette | Moody | +72.5 | 2,619 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 3.0 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- +3.0 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moody (R) | 49.4% | 50.9% | −1.5 |
| Nixon (D) | 43.5% | 48.0% | −4.5 |
| Gillespie (I) | — | 1.1% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Moody (R) leads the polling average in Florida on 49.7%, 6.3 points ahead of Nixon (D) (43.4%). The biggest shift over the past month is Moody (R), up 1.1 points.
22 polls from 19 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Targoz Market Research, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Ashley MoodyRepublicanIncumbent
- Angie NixonDemocratic
- Neil J. Gillespie
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Likely RForecast
Chance of winning: Ashley Moody (R) 83%, Angie Nixon (D) 17%
- Cook Political ReportLikely R
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely R
- Inside ElectionsLikely R
- Split TicketLikely R
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Cook Political Report:Safe RLikely R3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Safe RLikely R3 Nov
- CM Election Predictions:Likely RSafe R20 Oct
- ElectIndex:Lean RLikely R20 Oct
- Inside Elections:Safe RLikely R20 Oct
Government
Who governs Florida now.
Ron DeSantis
Governor of Florida