United States / Arizona / Gubernatorial Election
2026 Arizona gubernatorial election
Arizona polling average: Hobbs (D) 49.5% — Biggs (R) 42.5% — Hobbs (D) +7.0Pollytic average to 30 Oct 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Live results
Counting75% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katie HobbsProjected winnerDemocratic Party | 1,324,382 | 55.4% | |
| Andy BiggsRepublican Party | 1,022,354 | 42.8% | |
| Risa LombardoGreen Party | 22,026 | 0.9% | |
| Teri HourihanNo Labels | 20,917 | 0.9% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 1,570 | 0.1% | |
| Alice NovoaRepublican Party | 13 | 0.0% | |
| Gertritrude GonzalezRepublican Party | 6 | 0.0% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | Hobbs | +15.8 | 1,450,003 |
| Pima | Hobbs | +30.7 | 357,987 |
| Pinal | Biggs | +2.2 | 147,681 |
| Yavapai | Biggs | +21.8 | 119,902 |
| Mohave | Biggs | +43.7 | 74,805 |
| Coconino | Hobbs | +38.5 | 53,382 |
| Cochise | Biggs | +6.3 | 42,625 |
| Navajo | Biggs | +0.7 | 37,861 |
| Yuma | Hobbs | +5.5 | 30,546 |
| Apache | Hobbs | +38.1 | 25,707 |
All 15 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gila | Biggs | +24.3 | 19,736 |
| Santa Cruz | Hobbs | +44.9 | 13,294 |
| Graham | Biggs | +30.3 | 10,395 |
| La Paz | Biggs | +31.0 | 5,277 |
| Greenlee | Biggs | +11.2 | 2,067 |
Shift against the 2024 presidential vote
Each county’s margin (Democrat minus Republican share) against the 2024 presidential race in the same county. Vote-weighted average over the 15 counties reporting in both: 18.1 pts toward D.
- 10+ toward R
- 5–10 toward R
- 2–5 toward R
- Within 2
- 2–5 toward D
- 5–10 toward D
- 10+ toward D
- Not in both races
| County | 2024 | Now | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greenlee | R+40.9 | R+11.2 | 29.7 toward D |
| Santa Cruz | D+18.6 | D+44.9 | 26.3 toward D |
| Yuma | R+20.4 | D+5.5 | 26.0 toward D |
| Pinal | R+22.1 | R+2.2 | 19.9 toward D |
| Maricopa | R+3.5 | D+15.8 | 19.3 toward D |
| Apache | D+19.0 | D+38.0 | 19.1 toward D |
| Coconino | D+19.9 | D+38.5 | 18.6 toward D |
| Graham | R+48.1 | R+30.3 | 17.9 toward D |
| Cochise | R+23.1 | R+6.4 | 16.8 toward D |
| Navajo | R+17.2 | R+0.7 | 16.5 toward D |
How the count progressed
Updated
Updating automatically
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
Hobbs (D) leads the polling average in Arizona on 49.5%, 7.0 points ahead of Biggs (R) (42.5%). The biggest shift over the past month is Biggs (R), up 8.5 points.
11 polls from 8 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Noble Predictive Insights, published 30 Oct 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Katie HobbsDemocratic
- Andy BiggsRepublican
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Likely DForecast
Chance of winning: Katie Hobbs (D) 82%, Andy Biggs (R) 18%
- Cook Political ReportLikely D
- Sabato's Crystal BallLikely D
- Inside ElectionsTilt D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 7 forecasters
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- Cook Political Report:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- Kalshi:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Lean DLikely D3 Nov
- ElectIndex:Likely DSafe D28 Oct
- Polymarket:Safe DLikely D28 Oct
- PredictIt:Safe DLikely D28 Oct
- PredictIt:Likely DSafe D21 Oct
- Model:Lean DLikely D20 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Likely DSafe D20 Oct
- Polymarket:Likely DSafe D20 Oct
- PredictIt:Safe DLikely D20 Oct
Government
Who governs Arizona now.
Katie Hobbs
Governor of Arizona