United States / Minnesota / Senate Election
2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Minnesota polling average: (DFL) (I) 49.2% — Tafoya (R) 44.0% — (DFL) (I) +5.2Pollytic average to 2 Nov 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.
Election date
Held on
Results
100% reporting ·
| Candidate | Votes | Share | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peggy Flanagan (DFL)WinnerDemocratic Party | 1,520,864 | 53.7% | |
| Michele TafoyaRepublican Party | 1,233,460 | 43.6% | |
| Marisa SimonettiIndependent | 41,574 | 1.5% | |
| Rebecca WhitingLibertarian Party | 32,492 | 1.1% | |
| Write-inNonpartisan | 3,381 | 0.1% |
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hennepin | (DFL) | +45.9 | 664,237 |
| Ramsey | (DFL) | +51.5 | 249,770 |
| Dakota | (DFL) | +17.5 | 231,084 |
| Anoka | (DFL) | +1.9 | 181,952 |
| Washington | (DFL) | +12.0 | 149,501 |
| St. Louis | (DFL) | +22.3 | 100,101 |
| Scott | Tafoya | +5.4 | 79,874 |
| Olmsted | (DFL) | +18.9 | 78,925 |
| Wright | Tafoya | +25.9 | 75,755 |
| Stearns | Tafoya | +19.8 | 74,676 |
All 87 counties
| County | Leader | Lead | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carver | Tafoya | +7.0 | 61,637 |
| Sherburne | Tafoya | +30.8 | 47,228 |
| Crow Wing | Tafoya | +29.2 | 35,569 |
| Rice | (DFL) | +3.3 | 31,205 |
| Otter Tail | Tafoya | +32.3 | 31,046 |
| Blue Earth | (DFL) | +7.0 | 29,773 |
| Chisago | Tafoya | +27.8 | 29,299 |
| Clay | (DFL) | +11.2 | 26,769 |
| Goodhue | Tafoya | +14.3 | 24,446 |
| Winona | (DFL) | +4.3 | 22,918 |
| Itasca | Tafoya | +15.0 | 21,919 |
| Douglas | Tafoya | +34.3 | 21,397 |
| Isanti | Tafoya | +35.7 | 20,826 |
| Beltrami | Tafoya | +1.0 | 20,173 |
| Kandiyohi | Tafoya | +26.9 | 19,521 |
| Benton | Tafoya | +31.3 | 18,658 |
| Steele | Tafoya | +18.6 | 18,049 |
| Carlton | (DFL) | +4.1 | 17,470 |
| Mcleod | Tafoya | +34.6 | 17,271 |
| Becker | Tafoya | +30.6 | 16,761 |
| Nicollet | (DFL) | +2.5 | 16,606 |
| Cass | Tafoya | +33.2 | 16,603 |
| Morrison | Tafoya | +54.9 | 16,290 |
| Mower | Tafoya | +0.5 | 15,732 |
| Le Sueur | Tafoya | +32.8 | 14,364 |
| Pine | Tafoya | +30.1 | 14,040 |
| Freeborn | Tafoya | +13.2 | 13,395 |
| Mille Lacs | Tafoya | +37.1 | 12,048 |
| Polk | Tafoya | +27.2 | 11,934 |
| Hubbard | Tafoya | +27.9 | 11,789 |
| Brown | Tafoya | +32.0 | 11,755 |
| Meeker | Tafoya | +41.8 | 11,361 |
| Wabasha | Tafoya | +24.8 | 11,213 |
| Todd | Tafoya | +48.3 | 11,200 |
| Lyon | Tafoya | +26.6 | 10,427 |
| Dodge | Tafoya | +27.8 | 10,344 |
| Fillmore | Tafoya | +20.0 | 10,183 |
| Houston | Tafoya | +10.4 | 9,285 |
| Aitkin | Tafoya | +30.4 | 8,954 |
| Martin | Tafoya | +38.9 | 8,654 |
| Waseca | Tafoya | +29.7 | 8,403 |
| Kanabec | Tafoya | +36.3 | 7,592 |
| Sibley | Tafoya | +41.8 | 7,228 |
| Redwood | Tafoya | +41.1 | 6,716 |
| Nobles | Tafoya | +21.0 | 6,623 |
| Roseau | Tafoya | +46.7 | 6,615 |
| Wadena | Tafoya | +48.7 | 6,467 |
| Renville | Tafoya | +39.6 | 6,428 |
| Faribault | Tafoya | +33.0 | 6,419 |
| Pope | Tafoya | +31.1 | 6,071 |
| Lake | (DFL) | +11.2 | 5,975 |
| Pennington | Tafoya | +25.0 | 5,461 |
| Koochiching | Tafoya | +22.4 | 5,446 |
| Chippewa | Tafoya | +30.4 | 5,073 |
| Jackson | Tafoya | +40.6 | 4,864 |
| Cottonwood | Tafoya | +37.5 | 4,813 |
| Yellow Medicine | Tafoya | +38.7 | 4,572 |
| Swift | Tafoya | +33.4 | 4,512 |
| Rock | Tafoya | +34.0 | 4,447 |
| Stevens | Tafoya | +25.7 | 4,396 |
| Marshall | Tafoya | +47.5 | 4,319 |
| Pipestone | Tafoya | +44.2 | 4,068 |
| Watonwan | Tafoya | +20.9 | 4,052 |
| Murray | Tafoya | +41.2 | 3,982 |
| Clearwater | Tafoya | +44.9 | 3,975 |
| Lac Qui Parle | Tafoya | +29.4 | 3,392 |
| Cook | (DFL) | +40.3 | 3,376 |
| Grant | Tafoya | +31.1 | 3,056 |
| Norman | Tafoya | +17.2 | 2,640 |
| Wilkin | Tafoya | +35.9 | 2,560 |
| Lincoln | Tafoya | +33.3 | 2,535 |
| Big Stone | Tafoya | +29.3 | 2,406 |
| Kittson | Tafoya | +18.0 | 2,048 |
| Mahnomen | Tafoya | +5.8 | 1,965 |
| Red Lake | Tafoya | +31.7 | 1,892 |
| Lake Of The Woods | Tafoya | +44.6 | 1,862 |
| Traverse | Tafoya | +33.2 | 1,535 |
How the count progressed
Updated
Polls vs result
The last polling average before the vote () against the actual result.
- Mean absolute error
- 2.2 pts
- Error on the winner’s margin
- −4.3 pts
| Candidate | Average | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
| (DFL) (I) | 49.4% | 53.7% | −4.3 |
| Tafoya (R) | 43.5% | 43.5% | −0.0 |
| Simonetti (I) | — | 1.5% | — |
| Whiting (L) | — | 1.1% | — |
Error = average − result, in percentage points. A dash means the party or candidate was missing from the average or the result; it is left out of both errors.
Polling trend
The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated
Latest polls
Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.
How to read a poll
- Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
- ±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
- Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
- est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
- The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.
What the polls say
(DFL) (I) leads the polling average in Minnesota on 49.2%, 5.2 points ahead of Tafoya (R) (44.0%). The biggest shift over the past month is (DFL) (I), up 5.6 points.
14 polls from 12 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from AtlasIntel, published 2 Nov 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.
Candidates
Who is standing, in order of the polling average, then the result.
- Peggy Flanagan (DFL)
- Michele TafoyaRepublican
- Marisa Simonetti
- Rebecca WhitingLibertarian
Forecast
All 2026 racesHow likely each side is to win, according to the main forecasters.
Likely DForecast
Chance of winning: Peggy Flanagan (D) 80%, Michele Tafoya (R) 20%
- Cook Political ReportLean D
- Sabato's Crystal BallLean D
- Inside ElectionsLean D
- Split TicketLikely D
How the forecast has moved
Model
Chance of winning by party, one point per daily snapshot.
Show all 11 forecasters
Split Ticket
Decision Desk HQ
FiftyPlusOne
VoteHub
ElectIndex
CM Election Predictions
America First Insight
OpenSourceZone
Kalshi
Polymarket
PredictIt
Rating changes
- ElectIndex:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- Polymarket:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- PredictIt:Likely DSafe D3 Nov
- Cook Political Report:Likely DLean D28 Oct
- Fox News:Likely DLean D28 Oct
- CM Election Predictions:Lean DLikely D20 Oct
- Sabato's Crystal Ball:Likely DLean D20 Oct
- Split Ticket:Lean DLikely D20 Oct
Government
Who governs Minnesota now.
Tim Walz
Governor of Minnesota