Iceland

Name: Iceland election opinion polls
Creator: Pollytic

Iceland polling average: Samfylkingin 26.2% — Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 24.6% — Samfylkingin +1.6Also: Miðflokkurinn 15.1% · Viðreisn 11.5% · Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.7% · Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 5.0% …Pollytic average to 30 Jun 2026: recent, larger polls weigh more; no institute counts more than once.

Next election

Next Icelandic parliamentary election

Parliamentary Election

Polling trend — Next Icelandic parliamentary election

The average of recent polls. Newer polls and more accurate pollsters count more. How it’s calculated

Each point is one published poll; lines are the Pollytic average (recent, larger polls weigh more). Hover or tap for institute and date.

Latest polls

All Iceland polls

Each poll as published, with its pollster, fieldwork dates, sample size and a link to the source.

How to read a poll

Sample size is how many people were asked. More people means less random error, never none.
±3 is the margin of error: the real figure is likely within 3 points either way of the one shown.
Two polls can differ because they were taken on different dates, with different methods and different samples.
est. means the institute did not publish a margin of error, so it is estimated from the sample size.
The average smooths this out: it combines recent polls, so one unusual poll cannot swing the picture.

Polls with institute, dates, sample, margin of error, methodology and results
Institute	Date	Fieldwork	Sample	MoE	Method	Voting intention	Source
Gallup	30 Jun 2026*	1 Jun 2026 – 30 Jun 2026	12,102	±0.9 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 26.2% −2.2 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 24.9% +1.4 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 15.1% −2.5 percentage points Viðreisn 11.4% +0.8 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.3% −1.4 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 5.0% +0.7 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 4.6% +0.6 percentage points Socialist Party 4.3% +1.3 percentage points Píratar 3.0% +1.0 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Maskína	11 Jun 2026*	2 Jun 2026 – 11 Jun 2026	1,705	±2.4 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 25.2% −1.8 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 22.7% +9.2 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 14.2% −8.0 percentage points Viðreisn 12.4% −1.7 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 8.5% +1.4 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 5.4% +1.7 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 4.1% −0.2 percentage points Socialist Party 3.9% −0.2 percentage points Píratar 3.5% −0.6 percentage points	Source for Maskína poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	31 May 2026*	30 Apr 2026 – 31 May 2026	12,979	±0.9 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 28.4% −0.1 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 23.5% +2.1 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 17.6% −1.3 percentage points Viðreisn 10.6% ±0.0 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 6.7% +1.3 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 4.3% −0.8 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 4.0% −1.2 percentage points Socialist Party 3.0% +1.0 percentage points Píratar 2.0% ±0.0 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	29 Apr 2026*	1 Apr 2026 – 29 Apr 2026	10,484	±1.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 28.5% −1.5 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 21.4% +1.9 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 18.9% −1.7 percentage points Viðreisn 10.6% +0.6 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.4% +0.7 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 5.2% −0.6 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 5.1% +0.8 percentage points Socialist Party 2.0% ±0.0 percentage points Píratar 2.0% −1.0 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	31 Mar 2026*	2 Mar 2026 – 31 Mar 2026	10,746	±0.9 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 30.0% +1.5 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 20.6% +0.3 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 19.5% +1.4 percentage points Viðreisn 10.0% −0.9 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 5.8% ±0.0 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 4.7% −1.9 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 4.3% +0.1 percentage points Píratar 3.0% +0.3 percentage points Socialist Party 2.0% ±0.0 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	1 Mar 2026*	2 Feb 2026 – 1 Mar 2026	9,958	±1.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 28.5% −2.7 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 20.3% −0.5 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 18.1% +1.0 percentage points Viðreisn 10.9% −0.4 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 6.6% +1.2 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 5.8% +0.5 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 4.2% +1.1 percentage points Píratar 2.7% −0.7 percentage points Socialist Party 2.0% +0.1 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Prósent	16 Feb 2026*	21 Jan 2026 – 16 Feb 2026	3,900	±1.6 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 30.1% −1.9 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 19.6% +9.7 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 13.7% −4.6 percentage points Viðreisn 13.5% −0.9 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 7.7% +0.1 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.9% −1.2 percentage points Píratar 3.6% −1.6 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 3.3% +1.2 percentage points Socialist Party 2.4% −0.3 percentage points	Source for Prósent poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	1 Feb 2026*	9 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026	9,713	±1.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 31.2% +0.3 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 20.8% −0.9 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 17.1% +0.2 percentage points Viðreisn 11.3% +0.4 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.4% +0.2 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 5.3% −0.2 percentage points Píratar 3.4% ±0.0 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 3.1% −0.5 percentage points Socialist Party 1.9% +0.3 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)
Maskína	13 Jan 2026*	9 Jan 2026 – 13 Jan 2026	886	±3.3 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 27.0% −4.9 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 22.2% +13.1 percentage points Viðreisn 14.1% −0.2 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 13.5% −5.1 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 7.1% +0.8 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 4.3% −2.0 percentage points Socialist Party 4.1% +0.6 percentage points Píratar 4.1% −1.7 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 3.7% −0.4 percentage points	Source for Maskína poll (opens in a new tab)
Gallup	28 Dec 2025*	1 Dec 2025 – 28 Dec 2025	9,091	±1.0 est. (Not published: estimated from sample size (95%, simple random sample))	—	Samfylkingin 30.9% −0.2 percentage points Miðflokkurinn 21.7% +2.2 percentage points Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn 16.9% +0.4 percentage points Viðreisn 10.9% −1.9 percentage points Flokkur fólksins 5.5% +0.3 percentage points Framsóknarflokkurinn 5.2% −0.4 percentage points Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð 3.6% +0.4 percentage points Píratar 3.4% +0.1 percentage points Socialist Party 1.6% −0.7 percentage points	Source for Gallup poll (opens in a new tab)

* End of fieldwork: the source states no publication date.

Select two or more polls to compare them side by side.

What the polls say

Samfylkingin leads the polling average in Iceland on 26.2%, 1.6 points ahead of Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn (24.6%). The biggest shift over the past month is Miðflokkurinn, down 2.6 points.

2 polls from 2 institutes were published in the last 30 days of polling. The most recent is from Gallup, published 30 Jun 2026. The average gives recent and larger polls more weight and counts no institute more than once; read how it works.

Government

Who governs now, and the parties behind the government.

Kristrún Frostadóttir

Prime Minister

Orientation

Centre-left

In office since

21 Dec 2024

Coalition

SamfylkinginLead partyCentre-left
ViðreisnCoalition partnerCentre to centre-right
Flokkur fólksinsCoalition partnerCentre-left

Source: Wikipedia · composition: cabinet · checked 9 Nov 2026

Past election results

2024 Icelandic parliamentary election · 30 Nov 2024

How people voted last time, and the change since the election before.

Vote share and seats by party, 2024 Icelandic parliamentary election, with change since 2021 Icelandic parliamentary election
Party	Vote	± pp	Seats
Samfylkingin	20.8%	+10.8 percentage points	15
Sjálfstæðisflokkurinn	19.4%	−5.0 percentage points	14
Viðreisn	15.8%	+7.5 percentage points	11
Flokkur fólksins	13.8%	+4.9 percentage points	10
Miðflokkurinn	12.1%	+6.7 percentage points	8
Framsóknarflokkurinn	7.8%	−9.5 percentage points	5
Sósíalistaflokkur Íslands	4.0%	−0.1 percentage points	0
Píratar	3.0%	−5.6 percentage points	0
Vinstrihreyfingin - grænt framboð	2.3%	−10.2 percentage points	0
Lýðræðisflokkurinn	1.0%	new	0
Others (1)	0.0%		0

Change in percentage points vs 2021 Icelandic parliamentary election. 63 seats. Source: Wikipedia